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June 2014


NEG NAO

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Haven't you heard? I have the ability to control the weather just by posting day 9 Euro maps that show my desirable outcome.

9 day model maps always work out - especially when the heat has been showing up on them long range many times the last month or more - :weenie:  thats why we have had so many 90 degree days so far :wacko2:

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That was a high res map :lol:

 

Huh? I don't see what's funny. You clearly misinterpreted my post.

 

Sure it's the Hi-res Euro on WB, still low-res for the temp profile (13.91km resolution on WB). That's a terrible resolution to use temp profile right along the coast, just look at how smoothed the temp contours are. 4km or better is much more efficient to use for sea breezes and temp forecasting right along the immediate coast.

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Huh? I don't see what's funny. You clearly misinterpreted my post.

 

Sure it's the Hi-res Euro on WB, still low-res for the temp profile (13.91km resolution on WB). That's a terrible resolution to use temp profile right along the coast, just look at how smoothed the temp contours are. 4km or better is much more efficient to use for sea breezes and temp forecasting right along the immediate coast.

The LOL is because it's an hour 204 map. Who cares what it shows. I posted it just to prove a point. Looks like the Euro ensemble mean is starting to catch onto the ULL along the east coast. Heat cancel.

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The LOL is because it's an hour 204 map. Who cares what it shows. I posted it just to prove a point. Looks like the Euro ensemble mean is starting to catch onto the ULL along the east coast. Heat cancel.

 

Lol, you have no idea what you're even arguing. I'm arguing that it's too low resolution of a map to determine the sea breeze. You're arguing that with the ULL near the coast the heat might be shunted.

 

I'm not arguing that. Go back, my original post wasn't even intended towards you. I'm talking about a low res map and a sea breeze. Not some ULL I couldn't care less about.

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OT: Would snow be able to accumulate if theoretically it were possible to have snowfall around the summer solstice at temps of around 30F.

Depends on ground temp and snowfall rate. If the ground were hovering around freezing and you had a high enough snowfall rate certainly. If ground temps are at temperatures they are now then probably not.
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The LOL is because it's an hour 204 map. Who cares what it shows. I posted it just to prove a point. Looks like the Euro ensemble mean is starting to catch onto the ULL along the east coast. Heat cancel.

 

?

 

You can't post a map, claim that it shows a muted heatwave, and then get on another poster for commenting on that map ... saying "Who cares what it shows" when you a. not only care, but b. use it to make a point makes you look like:

 

c. a d-bag

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Lol, you have no idea what you're even arguing. I'm arguing that it's too low resolution of a map to determine the sea breeze. You're arguing that with the ULL near the coast the heat might be shunted.

I'm not arguing that. Go back, my original post wasn't even intended towards you. I'm talking about a low res map and a sea breeze. Not some ULL I couldn't care less about.

The cooler coastal temps are likely from the influince of the ULL. Not the seabreeze. Take it out of the equation and that same frame would show 90's right to the beaches.
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The cooler coastal temps are likely from the influince of the ULL. Not the seabreeze. Take it out of the equation and that same frame would show 90's right to the beaches.

 

I have WB too, whenever we get heat around here there's always a big contrast between coastal sections and inland sections, 90's inland, 70 at the coast. I doubt the ULL is a big contributing factor of the 70's at the coast since it always shows those temps. Guarantee if you ran a 4km version of the Euro, LI would be mid and upper 80's on that panel. 

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?

You can't post a map, claim that it shows a muted heatwave, and then get on another poster for commenting on that map ... saying "Who cares what it shows" when you a. not only care, but b. use it to make a point makes you look like:

c. a d-bag

The 70 reading on the beach has no bearing on my argument for a muted heat wave. The low 90's is all I care about, because that is the warmest it gets the entire run anywhere in this region.
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I have WB too, whenever we get heat around here there's always a big contrast between coastal sections and inland sections, 90's inland, 70 at the coast. I doubt the ULL is a big contributing factor of the 70's at the coast since it always shows those temps. Guarantee if you ran a 4km version of the Euro, LI would be mid and upper 80's on that panel.

Again, I'm concerned with inland temps which are more legit.
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OT: Would snow be able to accumulate if theoretically it were possible to have snowfall around the summer solstice at temps of around 30F.

When I lived in Tahoe it snowed about 3" at my house 300 feet above the lake (about 7000 feet) on summer solstice day and twice more before the end of the month.  On the 30th of June I was playing in ~15" of snow at 9500 feet. 

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When I lived in Tahoe it snowed about 3" at my house 300 feet above the lake (about 7000 feet) on summer solstice day and twice more before the end of the month.  On the 30th of June I was playing in ~15" of snow at 9500 feet. 

Given that you were 9500 feet closer to the sun than we are down here, the melting rate of that snow must have been insane. You probably had 5 minutes to build a snowman before it was gone.

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any heat looks to be short lived. It may be hot for a short time, but really nothing unprecedented for this time of year. Then it may be back to more of the same.

The Euro looks like it went back to a parade of troughs into the Northeast and east of here after maybe a day or two of heat. Just given how this pattern has persisted for months now, I'd expect this to continue.

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Guest Pamela

Given that you were 9500 feet closer to the sun than we are down here, the melting rate of that snow must have been insane.

 

That is meant satirically, right?

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That is meant satirically, right?

I see what you mean but surely there's some truth to it? They build deep space observatories at high elevations because thinner atmosphere = less light obstruction. I'd imagine the sun would be a bit more piercing at 10,000 ft than sea level, but I've never been above a couple thousand ft.

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Guest Pamela

I see what you mean but surely there's some truth to it? They build deep space observatories at high elevations because thinner atmosphere = less light obstruction. I'd imagine the sun would be a bit more piercing at 10,000 ft than sea level, but I've never been above a couple thousand ft.

 

You might have a point...come to think of it.

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The Euro looks like it went back to a parade of troughs into the Northeast and east of here after maybe a day or two of heat. Just given how this pattern has persisted for months now, I'd expect this to continue.

 

That's why the Euro ensemble mean is the way to go past 120 since it never jumped on the very warm solutions

of the OP. It has always had troughing near the coast like we have been seeing so far this spring. 

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The Euro looks like it went back to a parade of troughs into the Northeast and east of here after maybe a day or two of heat. Just given how this pattern has persisted for months now, I'd expect this to continue.

 

yeah pretty much. You kind of have to go with persistence of the pattern until it actually changes. Always seems like the change is a week or two away, but as we move closer in, that just isnt the case.

 

A couple days of heat, and back to more of the same

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The peanut gallery is awfully quiet today.

 

are you surprised? lol

 

This is the way this pattern has been. A couple warm to hot days followed by more of the same weather we have been seeing for a while now. You know the heat mongers are getting antsy when they are jumping on heat/ potential pattern changes that are nearly two weeks away.

 

Until we see the pattern  change real time and start seeing extended warmth, there isnt really a reason to stray from more of the same.

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That's why the Euro ensemble mean is the way to go past 120 since it never jumped on the very warm solutions

of the OP. It has always had troughing near the coast like we have been seeing so far this spring. 

 

 

that has been pretty relentless so far this spring and early summer. It has really muted what could have been some really warm periods for the northeast 

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