forkyfork Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 Unless it's over 95F degrees for a few days and preferably around 100 or over then the heat will be nothing crazy. whatever you need to say to make yourself feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 whatever you need to say to make yourself feel better So what does the euro show then, 100, 110, 115? Whatever July brings these past two months have had the best stretch of weekend weather in a long time. This weekend was another gem with highs generally in the upper 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 The main problem right now with getting a really impressive warm up for the first week on July has been the persistent low that has been parked SE of Newfoundland. It has left one of the strongest cold pools in that region that we have seen in recent years. While this doesn't mean that we wont be able to get over 90, it may be a struggle to reach the mid to upper 90's of recent years. Notice how the Euro ensembles maintain a weakness in that location right through the forecast period. We'll have to see how the models handle things once we get under 120 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 The week of the 29th has the potential to bring us our first heat wave of the season. It is still too early to know for sure, but fireworks on Independence Day could be going off under very hot and humid conditions. GFS: GGEM: Positive height potential for the entire eastern U.S. and eastern Canada with interlocking ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted June 22, 2014 Share Posted June 22, 2014 That bowling ball low southeast of Newfoundland may prevent the heat wave, as bluewave alluded to, but it has plenty of room for it to move out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 wouldn't it be easier to, you know, get used to the climate around here? the climate change denier in chief weighs in Though the two posts are inherently contradictory and assert diametrically opposed takes on the same issue, the irony of the paradox is not lost upon me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 That bowling ball low southeast of Newfoundland may prevent the heat wave, as bluewave alluded to, but it has plenty of room for it to move out. That could very well end up being overdone, but the ridge may not be as along the coast limiting the heat to something like 90-95 instead of upper 90's to around 100. We'lll see what things look like as we get under 120 hrs. You can see the lowering of heights on the Euro ensemble mean eroding the eastern side of the ridge near the coast and offshore areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Last nights 00z ECMWF continued the general theme of backing off and delaying the big heat signal. Our first shot at mid 90's or above holds off until at least July 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Last nights 00z ECMWF continued the general theme of backing off and delaying the big heat signal. Our first shot at mid 90's or above holds off until at least July 2nd. Troughiness northeast of us has been the way to go for months. This time may be different but it wouldn't surprise me at all to have another trough/low east of us which keeps the heat west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Last nights 00z ECMWF continued the general theme of backing off and delaying the big heat signal. Our first shot at mid 90's or above holds off until at least July 2nd. What about the big rain potential Wednesday? figured you'd be all over that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 the climate change denier in chief weighs in When hasn`t it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 SInce I am neither a denier or proponent of what does or does not cause changes . When I look at this , It does give me pause . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 What about the big rain potential Wednesday? figured you'd be all over that I'm not overly impressed at this time. Seems like the bulk of guidance wants to keep the core to our north. The Euro ensembles however love next week for some excessive rainfall. I'll be out of town so lock it up. The 12z 4k NAM brings through quite a nasty squall line around 00z Thursday. Gets SBCAPE as high as 4000 J/KG into eastern PA and is 2000+ J/KG for nearly everyone west of the Hudson. Gets lifted indexes in the -6 to -11 range across the area unless you live in on the convective graveyard otherwise known as Long Island. PWAT's will be in the 1.50-2.25" range and rainfall could be locally heavy briefly. The Euro is not that different which lends confidence. Haven't really had a chance to fully digest everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 As the Euro ensembles have been advertising, looks like the pattern will turn warm and stormy over the next two weeks. Latest CPC outlook has the area in above normal precip and temps the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 So much for the big heat....seasonal trend of no sustained heat the way to go-enjoying the great weather this week in ocean city, nj! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 And another COC weekend for the last weekend in June coming up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 And another COC weekend for the last weekend in June coming up again. What does COC mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Chamber of commerce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 And another COC weekend for the last weekend in June coming up again. This weather has been pretty unbelievable. Did we get transported to Southern California all of a sudden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 This weather has been pretty unbelievable. Did we get transported to Southern California all of a sudden? Nothing really unbelievable about it. NYC's +0.9 for temperatures so far this month, and we've seen plenty of mostly cloudy days during the work weeks. It's just that the beautiful weekends this month might skew people's thinking. Temperature wise, this is more or less how summer on average progresses. Our big heat (for 2+ consecutive days) doesn't generally get going until the end of June/beginning of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Chamber of commerce I don't get it. And the models seem to be flipping towards a more unsettled look for this upcoming weekend anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 I don't get it. And the models seem to be flipping towards a more unsettled look for this upcoming weekend anyway. For you, COC might mean "Chamber of Crap" ... get it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Could use some rain now with just 0.10 here past ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 For you, COC might mean "Chamber of Crap" ... get it now? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 For you, COC might mean "Chamber of Crap" ... get it now? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Nothing really unbelievable about it. NYC's +0.9 for temperatures so far this month, and we've seen plenty of mostly cloudy days during the work weeks. It's just that the beautiful weekends this month might skew people's thinking. Temperature wise, this is more or less how summer on average progresses. Our big heat (for 2+ consecutive days) doesn't generally get going until the end of June/beginning of July. All of this is true, but I think since the humidity hasn't been too terrible for the most part it has felt a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 All of this is true, but I think since the humidity hasn't been too terrible for the most part it has felt a lot better. You're going to get your humidity fill in the beginning of July. I think we avoid the big excessive heat (95F+) for the most part but dews should remain high. The 12z GEFS has dews staying in the 60's or 70's for nearly the entire forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 might sneak a 90 in spots on wednesday. convection is further and further west on each model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The Earth was molten on the surface over 4 billion years ago. The climate has always been changing!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 the 12z euro is coming in and it's hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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