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June 2014


NEG NAO

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 the 1st week of July is going to feature  the first actual heat wave of the summer 

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

The GFS and ensembles are already starting to delay the heat. The latest 12z GFS keeps the heat well west into the Rockies. I put the odds of a big heat wave just as likely as the major wet periods that haven't even come close to verifying.

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The GFS and ensembles are already starting to delay the heat. The latest 12z GFS keeps the heat well west into the Rockies. I put the odds of a big heat wave just as likely as the major wet periods that haven't even come close to verifying.

If I recall correctly didn't you mention about a month or so ago that you didn't expect NYC metro to reach 90 before July 15th ? Who mentioned anything about a BIG heat wave ? Just need 3-  90 degree days in a row - not that difficult in July around here

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If I recall didn't you mention about a month or so ago that you didn't expect NYC metro to reach 90 before July 15th ? Who mentioned anything about a BIG heat wave ? Just need 3-  90 degree days in a row - not that difficult in July around here

It wasn't that definitive, more of snide, trolling remark aimed at a few select posters. If my memory serves correct KNYC has still not recorded a 90 degree reading yet this Summer.

 

And 3 days in the low 90's for highs is not the caliber heat wave that's currently being discussed.

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the 1st week of July is going to feature the first actual heat wave of the summer

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

And while this may be true I'm not convinced yet, it's only June 20. People are always cautious when models show cold waves in the long range in winter and the same applies for any heat waves in the summer.

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I remember August 02 being an inferno.   Something like 8-9 straight days of 90+ here which is impressive for any month.   What's the Euro show and when does it start?

Euro has mid-upper 90's SW of NYC next weekend. Basically a massive ridge takes over the southeastern 80% of the country.

 

f240.gif

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Anytime between June 29 - July 10th there is going to be at least 3 days in a row above 90 at most reporting stations in the metro ..............

Euro has mid-upper 90's SW of NYC next weekend. Basically a massive ridge takes over the southeastern 80% of the country.

 

f240.gif

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This is still a week plus out. If this was winter, people would be getting blasted for posting stuff over a week away. Funny how the roles reverse and its okay

A little heat would be great, but I would be cautious considering what has happened recently, and its still a ways out

No one would get blasted discussing a pattern change to cold in the winter. It happens all the time.

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This is still a week plus out. If this was winter, people would be getting blasted for posting stuff over a week away. Funny how the roles reverse and its okay

A little heat would be great, but I would be cautious considering what has happened recently, and its still a ways out

an above normal temperature regime is easier to forecast than a snowstorm
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an above normal temperature regime is easier to forecast than a snowstorm

Temperature patterns are always easier to diagnose in the long term than a snowstorm where the axis of heavier snowfall may only be 60 to 70 miles wide. The signals are definitely there after Day 7, although I have noticed in the past the ECMWF tend to over do heat in the eastern United States past day 7.

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Temperature patterns are always easier to diagnose in the long term than a snowstorm where the axis of heavier snowfall may only be 60 to 70 miles wide. The signals are definitely there after Day 7, although I have noticed in the past the ECMWF tend to over do heat in the eastern United States past day 7.

it's likely overdone.  Doubt Maine is seeing 90 let alone 95.   Perhaps a warmer to even hot pattern, but bet it gets trimmed as we move closer as has been the seasonal trend this summer

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