IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 the 1st week of July is going to feature the first actual heat wave of the summer http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr The GFS and ensembles are already starting to delay the heat. The latest 12z GFS keeps the heat well west into the Rockies. I put the odds of a big heat wave just as likely as the major wet periods that haven't even come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Glorious weather today...a top 10 day for 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 The GFS and ensembles are already starting to delay the heat. The latest 12z GFS keeps the heat well west into the Rockies. I put the odds of a big heat wave just as likely as the major wet periods that haven't even come close to verifying. If I recall correctly didn't you mention about a month or so ago that you didn't expect NYC metro to reach 90 before July 15th ? Who mentioned anything about a BIG heat wave ? Just need 3- 90 degree days in a row - not that difficult in July around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 If I recall didn't you mention about a month or so ago that you didn't expect NYC metro to reach 90 before July 15th ? Who mentioned anything about a BIG heat wave ? Just need 3- 90 degree days in a row - not that difficult in July around here It wasn't that definitive, more of snide, trolling remark aimed at a few select posters. If my memory serves correct KNYC has still not recorded a 90 degree reading yet this Summer. And 3 days in the low 90's for highs is not the caliber heat wave that's currently being discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 the 1st week of July is going to feature the first actual heat wave of the summer http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr And while this may be true I'm not convinced yet, it's only June 20. People are always cautious when models show cold waves in the long range in winter and the same applies for any heat waves in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 the gates of hell open on the euro... jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Time to pay the piper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 ninos tend to favor back loaded summers... 02 roasted in august and 09 flipped to slightly warmer than avg after that horrid july Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 2002-2003 and 2009-2010 were the last two moderate Nino winters. Both of those winters featured plenty of blocking and KU events (Not necessarily in our immediate area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I remember August 02 being an inferno. Something like 8-9 straight days of 90+ here which is impressive for any month. What's the Euro show and when does it start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 I remember August 02 being an inferno. Something like 8-9 straight days of 90+ here which is impressive for any month. What's the Euro show and when does it start? Euro has mid-upper 90's SW of NYC next weekend. Basically a massive ridge takes over the southeastern 80% of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 20, 2014 Author Share Posted June 20, 2014 Anytime between June 29 - July 10th there is going to be at least 3 days in a row above 90 at most reporting stations in the metro .............. Euro has mid-upper 90's SW of NYC next weekend. Basically a massive ridge takes over the southeastern 80% of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 July/August for developing nino's...\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 This super heat is some 10 days out, I'll believe it when I see it. I wouldn't go higher than 92-95 right now at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 This super heat is some 10 days out, I'll believe it when I see it. I wouldn't go higher than 92-95 right now at most.of course you think this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 the op euro has ensemble support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 This is still a week plus out. If this was winter, people would be getting blasted for posting stuff over a week away. Funny how the roles reverse and its okay A little heat would be great, but I would be cautious considering what has happened recently, and its still a ways out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 This is still a week plus out. If this was winter, people would be getting blasted for posting stuff over a week away. Funny how the roles reverse and its okay A little heat would be great, but I would be cautious considering what has happened recently, and its still a ways out No one would get blasted discussing a pattern change to cold in the winter. It happens all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 This is still a week plus out. If this was winter, people would be getting blasted for posting stuff over a week away. Funny how the roles reverse and its okay A little heat would be great, but I would be cautious considering what has happened recently, and its still a ways out an above normal temperature regime is easier to forecast than a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 20, 2014 Share Posted June 20, 2014 Love the agendas here! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 The Euro actually has middle to upper 90s into Maine. Euro has mid-upper 90's SW of NYC next weekend. Basically a massive ridge takes over the southeastern 80% of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 The Euro actually has middle to upper 90s into Maine. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 an above normal temperature regime is easier to forecast than a snowstorm Temperature patterns are always easier to diagnose in the long term than a snowstorm where the axis of heavier snowfall may only be 60 to 70 miles wide. The signals are definitely there after Day 7, although I have noticed in the past the ECMWF tend to over do heat in the eastern United States past day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Temperature patterns are always easier to diagnose in the long term than a snowstorm where the axis of heavier snowfall may only be 60 to 70 miles wide. The signals are definitely there after Day 7, although I have noticed in the past the ECMWF tend to over do heat in the eastern United States past day 7. it's likely overdone. Doubt Maine is seeing 90 let alone 95. Perhaps a warmer to even hot pattern, but bet it gets trimmed as we move closer as has been the seasonal trend this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 it's likely overdone. Doubt Maine is seeing 90 let alone 95. Perhaps a warmer to even hot pattern, but bet it gets trimmed as we move closer as has been the seasonal trend this summer I agree. It may be 90+, but we have seen projected high numbers not pan out within a few days this year already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 The Euro actually has middle to upper 90s into Maine.Not for the time frame I was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Someone on the weather channel just said when air sinks, it expands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Lol the paleskinned weenies are really scurrying now...in the denial stage of grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Lol the paleskinned weenies are really scurrying now...in the denial stage of grief Depression will set in soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Someone on the weather channel just said when air sinks, it expands. Well its the weather channel sooo....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.