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June 2014


NEG NAO

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850 temps are modeled to be close to 20c wednesday afternoon. that would easily support 95+ temps given good enough mixing

 

 

Might be a good deal of convective debris running WNW-ESE through the area though on Tuesday-Wednesday, which I think could cap temperatures to the lower 90s.

 

Newark and LGA are probable locks for 90F+. Central Park, I could see putting up two 89's for Tues and Wed respectively. They should break 90F, but it's going to be very close IMO.

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Might be a good deal of convective debris running WNW-ESE through the area though on Tuesday-Wednesday, which I think could cap temperatures to the lower 90s.

 

Newark and LGA are probable locks for 90F+. Central Park, I could see putting up two 89's for Tues and Wed respectively. They should break 90F, but it's going to be very close IMO.

 

Upton's going upper 80s tomorrow. I'm sure Newark will hit 90 but may not be widespread 90s 

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The GFS MEX showing 95 for Newark tomorrow. But I'm concerned about convective debris or patchy clouds in afternoon keeping temps 2-3 degrees cooler. Thursday also is 93.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/17/2014  0000 UTC                        FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192       TUE  17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24 CLIMO X/N  89| 73  95| 74  93| 64  83| 67  79| 65  80| 67  85| 65  83 63 83 TMP  83| 77  87| 78  83| 70  76| 71  73| 69  74| 71  77| 70  76       DPT  64| 68  64| 67  56| 52  53| 57  61| 60  63| 63  59| 56  55       CLD  PC| PC  PC| PC  PC| CL  CL| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC   
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It might be in the 90s all the way to the beaches tomorrow. The winds are expected to be WNW and little/no seabreeze, meaning downsloping and maximum warming potential for everyone. Today I think makes it to 88-89 for most. Tomorrow I could see a 95 here and there if the thunderstorms stay away until late afternoon.

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It might be in the 90s all the way to the beaches tomorrow. The winds are expected to be WNW and little/no seabreeze, meaning downsloping and maximum warming potential for everyone. Today I think makes it to 88-89 for most. Tomorrow I could see a 95 here and there if the thunderstorms stay away until late afternoon.

 

 

Yeah the key is keeping skies mostly clear until 1-2pm at least. If that occurs, mid 90s are definitely possible in some spots. Looks like a lock that virtually everyone will surpass 90F in this period.

 

Today should be generally clear with 90F attainable in most spots. If we didn't have the front approaching Thursday, Newark would probably have an official heat wave.

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I always wondered if 11AM (10AM ST) was the more meaningful rule?

 

 

I've always remembered it by the 10 + 10 rule. Add 10 degrees to your 10am temperature for a rough estimation of the high. Doesn't always work though, obviously if we have clouds, convection, or a frontal passage (strong CAA). It's meant more for the stable / mostly sunny days like today. Most 10am temps were around 80 in the area so that should mean near 90 for most.

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I've always remembered it by the 10 + 10 rule. Add 10 degrees to your 10am temperature for a rough estimation of the high. Doesn't always work though, obviously if we have clouds, convection, or a frontal passage (strong CAA). It's meant more for the stable / mostly sunny days like today. Most 10am temps were around 80 in the area so that should mean near 90 for most.

 

Ill have to research that and see if it came about before DST.  First 90s for many today - more tomorrow then we may need to wait till the close of the month/early July for the next surge of heat. 

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