IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 atmosphere is saturated with that east flow and this continuous drizzle just need a trigger wouldn't be surprised if flooding and watches/localized warnings becomes an issue tomorrow you should consider creating another thread for this possibility and the possibility of severe storms being in the mix Upton seems to think that the ridging aloft staying strong just offshore will keep significant rainfall limited to areas just west of their CWA until tomorrow. The overnight guidance wasn't particularly wet and neither is the 11z HRRR. The 12z RAP on the other hand has some places picking up close to an inch in northeast NJ. We'll have to wait and see how much activity develops given limited instability but abundant moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 Upton seems to think that the ridging aloft staying strong just offshore will keep significant rainfall limited to areas just west of their CWA until tomorrow. The overnight guidance wasn't particularly wet and neither is the 11z HRRR. The 12z RAP on the other hand has some places picking up close to an inch in northeast NJ. We'll have to wait and see how much activity develops given limited instability but abundant moisture. how far inland is this drizzle making it ? here 5 miles west of SI drizzle damp and chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 how far inland is this drizzle making it ? here 5 miles west of SI drizzle damp and chilly Been locked into the drizzle since I woke up at 6:30 out here. Been enough to keep the ground wet but light enough that you don't need an umbrella. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 FWIW the 12z HRRR looks to be coming in a bit east of its previous run and stronger with convection developing down in the Delmarva. We'll need to continue monitoring the short range high res models as the globals have been very inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The weekend looks awesome...wash rinse repeat ;-) The timing has been excellent this year with any dreary days being during the week and the weekend ending up superb. Still I don't want to hear any whining if a dreary weekend ever does happen outside the 4th of July weekend this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Normally looking at that radar and the NNE movement I would say that we're going to get dumped on but the models have that activity in the mid-Atlantic literally taking all day to get here and weakening before it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Normally looking at that radar and the NNE movement I would say that we're going to get dumped on but the models have that activity in the mid-Atlantic literally taking all day to get here and weakening before it does. check out the visible satellite, you can see that ridge holding tough....clear skies just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 check out the visible satellite, you can see that ridge holding tough....clear skies just offshore. Cloud tops are starting to cool to our south and we have abundant moisture to work with, think that eventually the moisture wins out, but probably not to the extent that it looks to currently do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 12Z NAM has the metro sandwiched between the heaviest precip the next 36 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=06&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=12&fhour=36¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Also that clearing to the east is for real - Seaside Heights the sun is breaking through - what is the chance of that clearing making it here just west of SI and dry things out a little so I can cut my overgrown lawn later before the heavier rains tomorrow ? http://exit82.com/beach-cam/ http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 12Z NAM has the metro sandwiched between the heaviest precip the next 36 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=06&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=12&fhour=36¶meter=PCPIN&level=24&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Also that clearing to the east is for real - Seaside Heights the sun is breaking through - what is the chance of that clearing making it here just west of SI and dry things out a little so I can cut my overgrown lawn later before the heavier rains tomorrow ? http://exit82.com/beach-cam/ http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/1km/index.php?type=LongIsland-vis-12 The modeling has been particularly useless lately. Even the typically consistent RGEM has waffled, but hey, I guess that's why forecasting convection is so difficult. 00z 06z 12z Best bet is to keep an eye on the radar and plan for periods of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Why don't you look at the models yourself? Stupid question = stupid answer. Unfortunately I don't have the privilege of looking at weather models all day while I'm at work...I feel bad for the company u work for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Unfortunately I don't have the privilege of looking at weather models all day while I'm at work...I feel bad for the company u work for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Unfortunately I don't have the privilege of looking at weather models all day while I'm at work...I feel bad for the company u work for You have no problem looking at them all day during the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Unfortunately I don't have the privilege of looking at weather models all day while I'm at work...I feel bad for the company u work for IMO, tomorrow is rainy in the morning. And then the winds switch to the south and the fog and drizzle lift. The afternoon and night will be mostly dry with some scattered rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 IMO, tomorrow is rainy in the morning. And then the winds switch to the south and the fog and drizzle lift. The afternoon and night will be mostly dry with some scattered rain. Thank you buddy. All I was looking for! That response by yanksfan was unwarranted..it has been reported and hopefully delt with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 morning warm fronts are practically a lock for heavy rain here during the warm season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 IMO, tomorrow is rainy in the morning. And then the winds switch to the south and the fog and drizzle lift. The afternoon and night will be mostly dry with some scattered rain. The flashpoint on the 12z GFS is between 18z and 06z tomorrow. That's when the strongest shortwave crosses the area and the LLJ increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The 12z GGEM is a solid 1-2" west of NYC and ~0.50" east through 12z Saturday. Develops a weak wave on the warm front as it advances north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 morning warm fronts are practically a lock for heavy rain here during the warm season Yup. Take Monday morning as an example. These almost always over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The 16z RAP has an area of heavy rain firing right over the region by 18z and sitting nearly stationary until 00z when the warm front starts advancing northward. So far that looks to be an out to lunch solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 the NY bight is providing just enough convergence in the SE flow for showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The Euro is back to showing warmth next week but it also looks very convective. Could be a good combo for severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 WPC has dramatically expanded its day 1 outlook for excessive rainfall and now includes the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 12z euro cut back on the rain for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 WPC has dramatically expanded its day 1 outlook for excessive rainfall and now includes the entire area. 12z euro cut back on the rain for the area Lol I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Euro and Nam don't have much at all in the Hudson Valley, likes Eastern PA and then Eastern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Euro and Nam don't have much at all in the Hudson Valley, likes Eastern PA and then Eastern NE. The radar says it all. You can see all of the activity getting squashed as it tries to come north of Philly by the ridge east of New England. By tonight however that should be far enough east to allow the rain to get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Mt. Holly basically tossed todays guidance. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...SO FAR NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR AREA EXCEPT SHOWERS I95 WWD.THUNDER HAS DIED AS OF 345 PM PER PRIOR MODEL INDICATIONS THROUGHTHE MODELED SWI AND AM NOT RUNNING MUCH THUNDER TONIGHT.INSTEAD...TRYING TO GET HANDLE ON WHAT MIGHT BE HAPPENING...ITAPPEARS THERE IS SOME SORT OF NNEWD MOVING WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE INEASTERN VA OUT AHEAD OF A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH THAT IS EASILYDEFINED IN THE WV IMAGERY INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.YDYS EC SEEMED TO HAVE THIS WELL PEGGED BUT TODAYS GUIDANCE IS NOTSO WELL PORTRAYED.IN ANY CASE...PWAT IS AT LEAST 1.8 AND MAY INCREASE TO 2 INCHES BYMORNING AS WHATEVER TROUGH ALOFT PASSES NEWD THROUGH OUR AREA(700MB WSHIFT).SHOWERS MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE NIGHT AND WHILE IT MAY NOT THUNDERMUCH...A SHARS SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE OVER OUR AREA. FFA CONTD.THE FCST ELEMENTS WERE 12Z/12 NCEP MOS BLENDED.THE QPF WAS PORTED IN FROM WPC AROUND 3 PM FROM THEIR 18Z QPFGUIDANCE.FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND IT COULD BE DENSE TOWARDMORNING IF THE MID LVL SHORT WAVE DEPARTS SOON ENOUGH TO CLEARSKIES ALOFT.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 No sun here today so like yesterday only made it up to 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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