Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 It's questionable right now just because every big heat that has been shown has failed thus far. It's more likely we hit 90 past mid month versus before just because of climo but I don't see heat wave or anything like that yet. I don't recall the GFS showing 90 yet in the 8-10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 The Euro has a few days in the mid-upper 80's early next week. Primarily southwest of NYC. Philly has a better chance of breaking 90, especially on Tuesday which looks to be the warmest day of the period. Then another backdoor arrives on Wednesday. Wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 11, 2014 Author Share Posted June 11, 2014 The Euro has a few days in the mid-upper 80's early next week. Primarily southwest of NYC. Philly has a better chance of breaking 90, especially on Tuesday which looks to be the warmest day of the period. Then another backdoor arrives on Wednesday. Wash, rinse, repeat. wash - rinse - repeat - where have I heard that before ? As for the 12Z GFS showing heat it is appearing once again later in the period around day 10 - GFS has showed the heat later in the period a few times this spring BUT it backs off as we approach it although as we get deeper into June reaching 90 is alot easier http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 wash - rinse - repeat - where have I heard that before ? As for the 12Z GFS showing heat it is appearing once again later in the period around day 10 - GFS has showed the heat later in the period a few times this spring BUT it backs off as we approach it although as we get deeper into June reaching 90 is alot easier http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Some people here have a heat fetish during the Summer months just like they have cold fetishes during the winter. We have plenty of time for oppressive heat in July and August and as long as we hang around normal (The 80's by this point) I doubt many will complain. And if they do, they should move to the southwest or Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 12z Euro Highest max @ KNYC is 82 F happens again at 174 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 12z Euro Highest max @ KNYC is 82 F happens again at 174 . I bet KEWR and KPHL break 90 on Tuesday. Then it's back to seasonable or even slightly cooler than seasonable temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Some people here have a heat fetish during the Summer months just like they have cold fetishes during the winter. We have plenty of time for oppressive heat in July and August and as long as we hang around normal (The 80's by this point) I doubt many will complain. And if they do, they should move to the southwest or Florida. I hate heat but this is the first time it has really appeared on the GFS and managed to show up on a few consecutive runs. As you said its mid June so we're bound to heat up. Whether its closer to 90 or 100 remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 I hate heat but this is the first time it has really appeared on the GFS and managed to show up on a few consecutive runs. As you said its mid June so we're bound to heat up. Whether its closer to 90 or 100 remains to be seen. If you notice the models are also brining in convection chances with heat. It's not going to be a dry ridge. So you have to factor clouds and rain into keeping temps down. Now if you can get an EML in here then that would really boost severe chances. The GFS is hinting at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 82 is big heat? Times are tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 82 is big heat? Times are tough. That's the Euro. The GFS has the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 That's the Euro. The GFS has the 90s I'll ride the Euro anyday, plus the seasonal trend of cooler weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 What is this mess about? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_312_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=12¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=312&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140611+12+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 What is this mess about? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_312_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=12¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=312&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140611+12+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 This mess is hr 312 of the gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 What is this mess about? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_atlantic_312_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=12¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=312&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140611+12+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Fantasy GFS in the long range-blowing up everything including tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Only made it to 65 here during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 euro ens mean continues to be hot and has no bdcf. it's also weaker with the trof to our NE compared to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Only made it to 65 here during the day. same here and a stronger breeze has picked up this afternoon. Feels October like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Only made it to 65 here during the day. I know and I told tekkenguy it would hit 70 and to wear shorts..his legs are probably freezing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Generally low 60s most of the day here, on par with late October or mid April. Beautiful actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 How does Friday look? Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Today looks much the same, overcast and on either side of 70. Past few days have been dreary to say the least. Looks like the weekend may show signs of being better.... So far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Thoughts on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Thoughts on Friday? http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/USNJ0131 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Would be nice to get a educated post and not some shared weather link...this is a weather board if some have forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Today looks much the same, overcast and on either side of 70. Past few days have been dreary to say the least. Looks like the weekend may show signs of being better.... So far The weekend looks awesome...wash rinse repeat ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Thoughts on Friday? Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Would be nice to get a educated post and not some shared weather link...this is a weather board if some have forgotten Why don't you look at the models yourself? Stupid question = stupid answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Would be nice to get a educated post and not some shared weather link...this is a weather board if some have forgotten Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The gravy train should be slightly east today or just to the NW of the major cities. You can already see the light showers setting up shop. PWAT's are high and will only be increasing so any showers will be capable of localized downpours. Should be another feast or famine day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 The gravy train should be slightly east today or just to the NW of the major cities. You can already see the light showers setting up shop. PWAT's are high and will only be increasing so any showers will be capable of localized downpours. Should be another feast or famine day. atmosphere is saturated with that east flow and this continuous drizzle just need a trigger wouldn't be surprised if flooding and watches/localized warnings becomes an issue tomorrow you should consider creating another thread for this possibility and the possibility of severe storms being in the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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