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June 2014


NEG NAO

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Todays GFS shows the continued blocking/trough off the east coast  which relaxes at times to allow the heat ridge out west to expand east briefly - also have to keep an eye on the tropics in the 8 - 10 day frames shows a tropical system making landfall in the GOM

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

 

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

water vapor shows exactly why the heat can't expand east

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

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Todays GFS shows the continued blocking/trough off the east coast  which relaxes at times to allow the heat ridge out west to expand east briefly - also have to keep an eye on the tropics in the 8 - 10 day frames shows a tropical system making landfall in the GOM

 

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l

 

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

water vapor shows exactly why the heat can't expand east

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Post should be titled, June 2014 will be 2009's almost equally, cool cousin.

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Post should be titled, June 2014 will be 2009's almost equally, cool cousin.

Now wouldn't I look foolish to put that in the headline  if it doesn't even come close ?? Anyways I expect there is going to be periods when the trough and its cool east flow  lessens its grip on us and the heat makes it here for brief periods - so I expect at least a couple 90 + days closer to mid month and beyond and quite a few 80's days 

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Finished with a temp departure here of +0.7 degrees for May.

 

 

+1.0 here with a mean temp of 61.9. Very comfortable month overall with little need for heating or A/C.

 

Total heating degree days of 5569 for the 2013-14 season, which is above average by a few hundred.

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Thurs looks to be the better chance for stronger T storms - And coming from the SW, I think

these may hold together onto Long Island .

The NAM looks a LOT better as it tracks the storm north of us (a pretty strong LP system for June as depicted).
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The 12z Euro and GGEM both really hammer the area on Thursday as a convective low traverses the country. The 12z ECMWF tracks an MCS from Nebraska on Tuesday night through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and into the area on Thursday morning - Thursday afternoon.

 Not for nothing. My lawn and Garden need the rain.  Its been a fairly dry couple weeks. 

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The OP and Euro Ens have a closed low heavy convection signal for Thursday. They both

stall the warm front out close to the area with plenty of overrunning moisture available.

 

 

attachicon.gifS.gif

 

attachicon.gif5.gif

I hope that happens blue, these warm front setup always seem to go more south as we get closer the last few years

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The 06z GFZ seems to have a problem here     :http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_150_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=150&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140603+06+UTC&ps=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

Just 3 hours later the cluster west of the GL region is at the East Coast!   A 1000 miles in 3 hours!?  It is really 27 hours.  Frames need to be put back in sequence.

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