Most impressive Mid-Atlantic tropical system of the last 20 years

[ThePhotoGuy]

I literally could say the same about a Feb 5-6 2010 type snowstorm...

 

I find it hard to believe if we had a perfect track major heading for us the lot of you wouldn't be posting on this forum and appearing "excited."

 

Wanting a snowstorm to hit and wanting a Cat 3 or above to hit us is not the same thing. Yes, a snowstorm can cause damage and deaths but it would not be anywhere close to a major hurricane would do. Most buildings especially near the shoreline (Chesapeake Bay) are not built to withstand high winds and extreme storm surge. Places like Annapolis would be absolutely devastated. The town floods out after a simple rainstorm (street & tidal flooding).

 

A lot of our critical infrastructure is located right near sea-level which leads to even more problems.

 

Our Bay is already a mess, we don't need additional raw sewage, oil, debris, etc.

[T. August]

That's a terrible comparison. A huge hurricane hitting this area in the 'right spot' would be so much worse than a big snow. Anyone rooting for catastrophic weather needs their head checked. And don't tell me about having insurance coverage. It's still a PITA.

Unfortunately, with severe weather comes destruction. I don't think people who want some "action" want death and destruction. But you can't get a hurricane (or any other event) without the latter...

 

Do I want a hurricane? Yes. Do I want Snowmageddon v2? Uh... yeah. Do I want a severe thunderstorm with (insert sport here) ball-sized hail? Absolutely.

[eurojosh]

I'm sure we had a multi-page discussion here last year about whether or not it was "ok" to root for severe weather...  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Unfortunately, with severe weather comes destruction. I don't think people who want some "action" want death and destruction. But you can't get a hurricane (or any other event) without the latter...

Do I want a hurricane? Yes. Do I want Snowmageddon v2? Uh... yeah. Do I want a severe thunderstorm with (insert sport here) ball-sized hail? Absolutely.

Just one question....please answer....do you own the real estate you live in?

[StudentOfClimatology]

Just one question....please answer....do you own the real estate you live in?

I know this wasn't addressed to me and I'll probably get bashed for putting this out there, but I kind of agree with him (and I own my townhouse). As was said, no one wants death and destruction..but unfortunately, that is often the end result of the wx we like. There is no way around that fact.

I'd be very excited (and nervous) if a major hurricane were to come through here. The paleo record suggests it has happened several times over the past millennia, and logic says it will happen again eventually. So the best thing to do is prepare for it, and take in the experience when it finally does happen, because it'll probably be a once in a lifetime experience.

I'm probably going to get bashed for this, but

[Shadowzone]

For Tidewater Virginia, the answer is Isabel and it is not even close.  The neighborhood where I grew up in York County Virginia had an incredible number of big trees down.

[T. August]

Just one question....please answer....do you own the real estate you live in?

Yes, I do... And as I said, the destruction (may mean broken windows and whatnot in my case) is unfortunate, but an unavoidable factor.

 

Whatever happens happens, so why not be okay with it, and maybe even enjoy the power of the weather?

[usedtobe]

I'd say Isabel for most of us east of the city and Fran for those along the east slopes of the mountains.  I got lots of rain from Floyd but don't think it was a big a flood maker as Isabel. 

[Sparky]

It is hard to vote against Sandy for its tenacity, lateness, precip total, stiff wind gusts, unusual path, just an all around special storm.

 

And a shout out to Bertha, for its earliness (July 13, 96), decent rainfall with very gusty NE winds, and followed six days later (here) by an F-3 tornado about 2 miles from home.

[Bob Chill]

We suck at tropical. And tornadoes. And snow most of the time. Hopefully we'll get a foot of ice this winter. We can discuss it a couple months later after our power is restored. 

[Sparky]

I was not overly impressed with Isabel.  Sure the winds were strong and gusty and out of the SE, somewhat unusual around here, but the rainfall was light compared to the others....

 

OK, it was IVAN, with all of those mini-spinups of tornadoes Sept 18, 2004.  That was an edge of your seat storm for me.   I am not a fan of tornadoes.  

[gymengineer]

I personally don't see how Lee really fits in with this list, considering the center dissipated before the slug of moisture reached the Mid-Atlantic along the front. June 2006 might as well be added then (with the debated possible STS landfall in NC prior to the 'main event').

(Sandy would technically drop off of the list too if we were just looking at actual tropical systems, but I get that Sandy is unique given its tropical nature just hours before landfall.)

 

If we're looking at impact of tropical storms/hurricanes traversing our area, it's pretty clear that the ones going to our west are a different beast altogether than the ones riding north to our east along the coast. That SE wind consistently gusting to above 40 mph does something quite different than the 40+mph gusts out of the N or NNW or NW. We get the storm surge way above the eastern cases, and the power outages are magnified too, probably because the trees aren't "used to" high gusts from that direction. That's why David and Fran were such high impact events even though the stats out of DCA would suggest non-events. Isabel got beat by Sandy at all three airports for gusts, but most people who lived through both in the DC-Baltimore corridor would say that the impacts (power outages, storm surge, damage, recovery time, etc.) of Isabel were multiple-times worse. 

[AvantHiatus]

We suck at tropical. And tornadoes. And snow most of the time. Hopefully we'll get a foot of ice this winter. We can discuss it a couple months later after our power is restored. 

Your only other option is Alabama or Hawaii. Choose wisely.

[Bob Chill]

Lawd, what do we do well? Pollen?

We're a tame place for weather on the averages. Luckily we "can" get in on good action from time to time just not on a regular basis. Not many places can claim the ability for blizzards/ice/tropical/severe. So we have that. Usually there are trade offs. Our only trade is time in between.

[Shane M.]

I would say Isabel. The rain and winds weren't overly impressive, but for those along the Chesapeake Bay, the storm surge was very impressive.

[Deck Pic]

For overall DC/Balt metro, Isabel is in another league

[The Dude]

Wanting a snowstorm to hit and wanting a Cat 3 or above to hit us is not the same thing. Yes, a snowstorm can cause damage and deaths but it would not be anywhere close to a major hurricane would do. Most buildings especially near the shoreline (Chesapeake Bay) are not built to withstand high winds and extreme storm surge. Places like Annapolis would be absolutely devastated. The town floods out after a simple rainstorm (street & tidal flooding).

 

A lot of our critical infrastructure is located right near sea-level which leads to even more problems.

 

Our Bay is already a mess, we don't need additional raw sewage, oil, debris, etc.

 

I agree with all you said, but one can't cheer on extreme snowstorms while simultaneously chastising people for cheering on extreme tropical systems.  Both cause death and destruction.  

 

For overall DC/Balt metro, Isabel is in another league

 

Agreed.  I follow the weather pretty closely, and Isabel is the only one that truly sticks out in my memory.  For the rest, I recall some bendy trees and some rain, but none were particularly memorable.

 

But even Isabel was very tame compared to experiencing Fran when I lived in the Raleigh/Durham area.

[gymengineer]

I agree with all you said, but one can't cheer on extreme snowstorms while simultaneously chastising people for cheering on extreme tropical systems.  Both cause death and destruction.  

 

 

Agreed.  I follow the weather pretty closely, and Isabel is the only one that truly sticks out in my memory.  For the rest, I recall some bendy trees and some rain, but none were particularly memorable.

 

But even Isabel was very tame compared to experiencing Fran when I lived in the Raleigh/Durham area.

Four cities well inland from the landfall point that were wrecked by an unraveling hurricane: Charlotte, NC (Hugo), Raleigh, NC (Fran), Richmond, VA (Isabel), and Jackson, MS (Katrina). By wrecked, I mean trees down in every neighborhood, hundreds of thousands of power outages in the city limits, and a weeks-long cleanup. 

 

What all of these situations had in common: 1) A large radius of hurricane and storm-force winds upon landfall; 2) Moderate to fast forward motion of the hurricane; 3) The city has many tall, mature trees where the canopy acted as 'sails,' allowing many trees to completely uproot; 4) The max gusts at the official reporting station were above 65 mph, and somewhere in the immediate metro area went above 80 mph; 5) The max wind period came *before* the closest approach of the center of circulation, so there wasn't a reliance on whatever's left of the eyewall for the worst conditions.  

 

What they didn't have in common was landfall intensity-- Categories 2 through 4. Also, not all of the cases had the center pass to the west of the city. Fran passed pretty much in between Raleigh and Durham, and Katrina passed to the east of Jackson. For the DC area, Hazel's already been mentioned as the ultimate, but we only got those wind speeds because the storm transitioned to extra-tropical before it got to the area (Sandy-like rapid flip), allowing for 90-115 mph gusts from VA through NYC (NYC was more than 200 miles to the east of the center!).

 

The worst-case scenario from a tropical system for DC would probably be like the above scenarios, which is harder for our latitude than those cities to our south. No, it doesn't require a Category 4 making landfall on the Delmarva/mouth of the Bay--- just a large Category 2 like Isabel would be enough. But, the hurricane would have to make landfall near the NC/VA border or a bit further north, which is a rare occurrence for a storm with a westerly component. Track-wise, the closest we've gotten is probably the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane (1933), which was still a bit too far south compared to the landfall-to-inland-city distance for the above four cases. 

[StudentOfClimatology]

It is conceivable that one day, a category 3 or 4 will be captured full-axis, make landfall on the NC coast, and truck just to our west at a high rate of speed.

[gymengineer]

It is conceivable that one day, a category 3 or 4 will be captured full-axis, make landfall on the NC coast, and truck just to our west at a high rate of speed.

Right, but one of the points of my post was that a Cat 4 landfall wouldn't necessarily result in a bigger impact than a Cat 2 landfall, mainly because the by the time the hurricane's center reaches a well-inland city, the worst conditions probable have already passed. So, the highest wind in the eyewall at landfall doesn't necessarily dictate what's going to happen 150+ miles inland. 

[AvantHiatus]

I would expect hurricane tracks to change as AGW progresses, uncharted territory so to speak. Although 1933 Potomac and 1903 Vagabond Hurricanes are interesting scenarios that occured in the old climate.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Right, but one of the points of my post was that a Cat 4 landfall wouldn't necessarily result in a bigger impact than a Cat 2 landfall, mainly because the by the time the hurricane's center reaches a well-inland city, the worst conditions probable have already passed. So, the highest wind in the eyewall at landfall doesn't necessarily dictate what's going to happen 150+ miles inland.

I see what you're saying, and I agree. That said, a warm core system's developed pressure minima can only be compromised so fast. So I'd argue that the three most important factors, in order, would be:

(1) The storm's speed. Obvious reasons.

(2) Stage of EYC (eyeball replacement cycle) at landfall..very important given a warm-core system's (core) is literally its lifeline once inland. Essentially this is analogous to a car breaking uphill vs downhill. Thee is some very good literature on this topic.

(3) Moisture content/instability of the antecedent airmass surrounding the storm at & after landfall.

If these factors were to line up perfectly, then with the right track, Hazel could be dethroned quite easily.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Interesting site I found when searching for DC hurricane history:

http://www.midatlantichurricanes.com/Maryland.html

Seems like it's been awhile since we've had a "big one".

" 1667: The "Year of the Hurricane." A severe storm tracked through the Chesapeake region on September 6. A government report noted, "A mighty wind on (Sept. 6) destroyed four-fifths of (our) tobacco and corn and blew down in two hours fifteen thousand houses in Virginia and Maryland." Several separate accounts of the storm describe the huge, almost universal, devastation. A benchmark storm for generations."

" 1896: A hurricane raced through central Maryland on September 29. It ranks as one of the state's historic windstorms. Hurricane force winds along a 50-mile east to west band slammed the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore areas. The storm caused moderate to extreme property damage. A sustained wind of 81 mph was recorded in Washington, D.C., with gusts of about 100 mph. The weather office recorded a five minute average wind"

[gymengineer]

Interesting site I found when searching for DC hurricane history:

http://www.midatlantichurricanes.com/Maryland.html

Seems like it's been awhile since we've had a "big one".

" 1667: The "Year of the Hurricane." A severe storm tracked through the Chesapeake region on September 6. A government report noted, "A mighty wind on (Sept. 6) destroyed four-fifths of (our) tobacco and corn and blew down in two hours fifteen thousand houses in Virginia and Maryland." Several separate accounts of the storm describe the huge, almost universal, devastation. A benchmark storm for generations."

" 1896: A hurricane raced through central Maryland on September 29. It ranks as one of the state's historic windstorms. Hurricane force winds along a 50-mile east to west band slammed the Washington, D.C., and Baltimore areas. The storm caused moderate to extreme property damage. A sustained wind of 81 mph was recorded in Washington, D.C., with gusts of about 100 mph. The weather office recorded a five minute average wind"

For a history of DC tropical systems, you might be interested in this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/25076-all-the-tss-and-hurricanes-that-brought-ts-conditions-to-dc/

[Subtropics]

Was looking back through Hurricane Isabel material and realized that one of the forecast tracks from the UKMET was just about the worst case scenario for our area. The orange track goes right up the 90 degree chesepeake with minimal land interaction before making landfall on the mall.

 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Annual bump for the start of (another dud) hurricane season.