forkyfork Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 i hope the 4th is a washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 i hope the 4th is a washoutThat's what people who have no friends usually say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Still mixed signals, I will worry come wed.It could still end up mostly sunny if this thing shoots east instead of northeast. Pre i think only real threat. That could totally not occur too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 i hope the 4th is a washout who cares what you hope for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It could still end up mostly sunny if this thing shoots east instead of northeast. Pre i think only real threat. That could totally not occur too.regardless, we have an approaching cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 i hope the 4th is a washout You may as well root for the russian hockey team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 hope everyone enjoys their soggy hot dogs and fireworks on the tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The pre is contingent on a slower frontal boundary which allows the cyclone to get further north before it gets shunted east. If we can time it perfectly we may get both. We'll have to watch the amplitude of the trough swinging through the lakes as that will have a large effect on how fast the front clears the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 hope everyone enjoys their soggy hot dogs and fireworks on the tv where's the heat you promised...bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 i hope the 4th is a washout You need Abilify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It could still end up mostly sunny if this thing shoots east instead of northeast. Pre i think only real threat. That could totally not occur too. Yea, there's certainly a shot for it. We need the front to not stall overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Good chance that at least one day is rather meh depending on where you live. We'll see what the 12z stuff does today. 06z GFS is a nice 4th away from Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Kevin is concerned about the amount of ER visits hospitals will have to ensure from couches stuck to the backs of people this week. He wanted me to tell you lol. He's a puss for not posing. He left after he got mad at me and then accused you of calling him a liar....yet he still texts you. Its been a bad summer for extreme weather enthusiasts, so perhaps its good he took a break. First legit extreme event and he'll be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 He left after he got mad at me and then accused you of calling him a liar....yet he still texts you. Its been a bad summer for extreme weather enthusiasts, so perhaps its good he took a break. First legit extreme event and he'll be back. He still pushes the temp and dews via texts lol. Sounds like he's busy washing his truck, watering, and taking the kids to softball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 regardless, we have an approaching cold front.roger that. Depending on timing, eastern sne often ends up with meh on those anyways.. time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 roger that. Depending on timing, eastern sne often ends up with meh on those anyways.. time will tell I feel like storms seem to die out once the get passed the mtns...when I lived in CNJ, so many severe fronts lost its juice once it got over the Poconos and NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Watch that naked swirl northeast of Florida just keep trucking toward the FLL. These things are notoriously fickle prior to developing good convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 SREF/NAM drumming out a big moisture surge today well out ahead of the TC. Combination of stalled front and tropical moisture. Notorios signal for prolific convective rains. Will likely not feature steady rain but periods of heavy rain as the convection rides north. PWAT's >2" likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I got my date wrong earlier...it was the 29F reading on 5/30 that really looked erroneous. My frost pocket had 28 on 5/29 and 39 on the 30th. If MVY has 7 AM obs (and recorded upper 20s on the 29th), that might explain the reading on the 30th - a "cheap holdover" low. I remember Tamarack talking about the Augusta, ME snow dump pile lasting well into the summer. The Central Maine Glacier made it thru August 25 in 2008, only a day or two shorter than the latest melt-off at Paradise on Rainier. Only a dirt-covered lump at present, which will make it to the 4th but not much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 SREF/NAM drumming out a big moisture surge today well out ahead of the TC. Combination of stalled front and tropical moisture. Notorios signal for prolific convective rains. Will likely not feature steady rain but periods of heavy rain as the convection rides north. PWAT's >2" likely. Yup... classic PRE signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 My frost pocket had 28 on 5/29 and 39 on the 30th. If MVY has 7 AM obs (and recorded upper 20s on the 29th), that might explain the reading on the 30th - a "cheap holdover" low. I remember Tamarack talking about the Augusta, ME snow dump pile lasting well into the summer. The Central Maine Glacier made it thru August 25 in 2008, only a day or two shorter than the latest melt-off at Paradise on Rainier. Only a dirt-covered lump at present, which will make it to the 4th but not much longer. MVY is 5z-5z like every ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 NAM looks like a classic PRE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 NAM looks like a classic PRE. Euro Ens has a pretty good signal too Thursday into Friday. Weird to see so much instability around too... heavy low level theta-e along the PWAT axis but also relatively steep mid level lapse rates (i.e. not moist adiabatic like you normally see with these) with some remnant EML air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Another classic day,and another classic weekend next. This pattern of mid week crap, Fri through Tues COC is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Watch that naked swirl northeast of Florida just keep trucking toward the FLL. These things are notoriously fickle prior to developing good convection.Bingo. Technically that llc could even near the coast. Imagine if it went over FL without really ever developing great convection? Could be a bust that keeps us dry for the fourth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Another classic day,and another classic weekend next. This pattern of mid week crap, Fri through Tues COC is fantastic Not sure Friday is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Euro Ens has a pretty good signal too Thursday into Friday. Weird to see so much instability around too... heavy low level theta-e along the PWAT axis but also relatively steep mid level lapse rates (i.e. not moist adiabatic like you normally see with these) with some remnant EML air around. wow, that isn't common! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Not sure Friday is good.hopefully like the 6z GFS, but yea the potential for a crappy day lurks, plenty of time though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 hopefully like the 6z GFS, but yea the potential for a crappy day lurks, plenty of time though Yeah the Euro Ensembles have a pretty good heavy QPF signal Thu/Fri. I do think the weekend turns out nice but the 4th could be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 LOL at the HWRF. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014063006/hwrf_goes4_91L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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