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June Discussion

Bostonseminole

By Bostonseminole,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

What a pants tent weekend for that! Think I'm gonna take Bryce for a bike ride down the canal today.

 

Sounds great--enjoy.

 

I just pulled over 50 frogs out of the pool.  The vast majority the little 1" jobbers.  What a racket they were making last night--just craziness.

 

Nice day en route.

 

66.6/61

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Who's to say if this will last as the predominating summer pattern or not, but so far, this is turning into the great heat shunt summer 2014. 

 

Heat abounds ... where?  Not here. But, it's lurking.  The 00z operational Euro best exemplifies this before vs what has verified, and that is ridge representations rolling up into the OV/NE region, toting along continental fire, only to come into the shorter ranges as a comparatively dimmed stint over the original appeals.  

 

The reason for that appears to be a -NAO latency/forcing that is more and occasionally less obviously exerting on the circulation character.  What that does more specifically is causes NW mid-level flow to evolve at least excuse imaginable ... where ridging ends up "dented" when it comes time to verify. 

 

So in essence, I suspect inherent error in that regard is related to the miss- handling of the NAO domain by the models; that is proving their current greatest bane toward accuracy (speaking about late middle range periods....).  Whereby, they keep assuming the D. Straight/Greenland domain space will implode heights ... more than less in line with the summer version of the mean PV.  Any such success in seeing that happen would in theory allow a ridge/Bermuda subtropical height expansion up underneath.

 

This "warm up" for early next week appears to have fallen victim  yet again.  It is but a muted version of what the models originally slated.  That is not to say it won't warm up.  Or, that it won't be uncomfortable for some.  But it no way does the period have the same panache as it did five days ago, as then, not only suggested by multi-operational designs, but the GEFs NAO derivatives were much more positive than they are now.  So, kind of a double-edged misleading indicators there.  That's tough!

 

Anyway, appears seasonal warmth with some convection (perhaps ..) 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Who's to say if this will last as the predominating summer pattern or not, but so far, this is turning into the great heat shunt summer 2014. 

 

Heat abounds ... where?  Not here. But, it's lurking.  The 00z operational Euro best exemplifies this before vs what has verified, and that is ridge representations rolling up into the OV/NE region, toting along continental fire, only to come into the shorter ranges as a comparatively dimmed stint over the original appeals.  

 

The reason for that appears to be a -NAO latency/forcing that is more and occasionally less obviously exerting on the circulation character.  What that does more specifically is causes NW mid-level flow to evolve at least excuse imaginable ... where ridging ends up "dented" when it comes time to verify. 

 

So in essence, I suspect inherent error in that regard is related to the miss- handling of the NAO domain by the models; that is proving their current greatest bane toward accuracy (speaking about late middle range periods....).  Whereby, they keep assuming the D. Straight/Greenland domain space will implode heights ... more than less in line with the summer version of the mean PV.  Any such success in seeing that happen would in theory allow a ridge/Bermuda subtropical height expansion up underneath.

 

This "warm up" for early next week appears to have fallen victim  yet again.  It is but a muted version of what the models originally slated.  That is not to say it won't warm up.  Or, that it won't be uncomfortable for some.  But it no way does the period have the same panache as it did five days ago, as then, not only suggested by multi-operational designs, but the GEFs NAO derivatives were much more positive than they are now.  So, kind of a double-edged misleading indicators there.  That's tough!

 

Anyway, appears seasonal warmth with some convection (perhaps ..) 

 

The pattern makes me dread what December may bring......you need to pay the piper at some point.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

The pattern makes me dread what December may bring......you need to pay the piper at some point.

This could have been a really active tropical season for the east coast with a favorable mean trough/ridge placement promoting late recurving systems. Too bad the basin is going to be a giant dud this year.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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The pattern makes me dread what December may bring......you need to pay the piper at some point.

 

I understand that mode of thinking; it's common at the street corners and water coolers of circuit culture.   "Boy, it's a hot summer; gonna be hell to pay dis' winta."

 

Unfortunately, ... as we all know there is no correlation of such in atmospheric events from one interval to the other.  Climate is a mean of the dailies of ...whatever times span, but yes, there does tend to be offset days that bring about something we call normalcy. But that statement doesn't mean hot summer is followed by cold winter, per se, no more than vice versa (or with precip distribution for that matter, either.)

 

You could have  hot summer, followed by a warm winter, followed by a mild spring and summer, followed by a warm fall, followed by a hot winter, followed by a cool summer, and your normal.  Usually ...this is how thing play out over the longer period of time.  

 

In essence... our tempered summer so far means nothing about this winter.  

 

Seasonal 'casts (if there is any merit in them at all..) begins with recognizing the dominating factors that force on a given system; in the case of the atmosphere: solar, volcanism, oceanic heat content/distribution and the immensely complex subsequent cause and effect forcing on the atmosphere... etc, etc etc...   modes with teleconnectors both air and sea.   

 

It's a dizzyingly studied and still way unclear science.  But I assure you, that's where to begin.

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Nittany88

Nittany88

Posted
Posted

Who's to say if this will last as the predominating summer pattern or not, but so far, this is turning into the great heat shunt summer 2014. 

 

Heat abounds ... where?  Not here. But, it's lurking.  The 00z operational Euro best exemplifies this before vs what has verified, and that is ridge representations rolling up into the OV/NE region, toting along continental fire, only to come into the shorter ranges as a comparatively dimmed stint over the original appeals.  

 

The reason for that appears to be a -NAO latency/forcing that is more and occasionally less obviously exerting on the circulation character.  What that does more specifically is causes NW mid-level flow to evolve at least excuse imaginable ... where ridging ends up "dented" when it comes time to verify. 

 

So in essence, I suspect inherent error in that regard is related to the miss- handling of the NAO domain by the models; that is proving their current greatest bane toward accuracy (speaking about late middle range periods....).  Whereby, they keep assuming the D. Straight/Greenland domain space will implode heights ... more than less in line with the summer version of the mean PV.  Any such success in seeing that happen would in theory allow a ridge/Bermuda subtropical height expansion up underneath.

 

This "warm up" for early next week appears to have fallen victim  yet again.  It is but a muted version of what the models originally slated.  That is not to say it won't warm up.  Or, that it won't be uncomfortable for some.  But it no way does the period have the same panache as it did five days ago, as then, not only suggested by multi-operational designs, but the GEFs NAO derivatives were much more positive than they are now.  So, kind of a double-edged misleading indicators there.  That's tough!

 

Anyway, appears seasonal warmth with some convection (perhaps ..) 

 

Still looks hot for western areas, where south/southeast low level flow doesn't send in that modified marine air. We should still push upper 80's to 90F the next 4 days here in BTV, maybe even stringing together our first heat wave Sunday-Tuesday depending on clouds, lake breezes, and any convection.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

I understand that mode of thinking; it's common at the street corners and water coolers of circuit culture.   "Boy, it's a hot summer; gonna be hell to pay dis' winta."

 

 

Your points are well taken, but I think you turned MPM's concerns upside down.  He's probably worried that "paying the piper" for the nice "cool bias" so far this summer will mean a warm mushy December.  (And also that his comment was more banter than forecast.)

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Your points are well taken, but I think you turned MPM's concerns upside down.  He's probably worried that "paying the piper" for the nice "cool bias" so far this summer will mean a warm mushy December.  (And also that his comment was more banter than forecast.)

 

I'm turning anything upside down... the point is, there's no such correlation of that ilk.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Is your Davis fan aspirated? That seems a little toasty for your area.

BML at 1,100ft also was 83F for a high but I don't know what it was closer to him. Doesn't seem too out of sync. Most of the VT mountain valleys and N.NH valleys (under 1,500ft valleys) were in the lower 80s.

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