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June Discussion


Bostonseminole

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summer just began today too...it's not like what we have is anything abnormal...I guess expectations are a little altered b/c in the past we've already seen a heat wave somewhere by now or we've been dealing with higher amounts of humidity but summer just started lol.  This month has been pretty normal overall...at least temp wise...

 

MonthTDeptNRCC.png

 

 

 

 

 

:lol: at the BTV ring of red up there in the northern half of the Champlain Valley.  As usual, BTV leading the way on departures, while MPV and 1V4 climo sites east of the Greens come in with departures like a full 3-4 degrees cooler. 

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:lol: at the BTV ring of red up there in the northern half of the Champlain Valley.  As usual, BTV leading the way on departures, while MPV and 1V4 climo sites east of the Greens come in with departures like a full 3-4 degrees cooler. 

 

I never fully understood how you can have a vastly small area of extreme departures while departures around it or much less extreme.  

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I never fully understood how you can have a vastly small area of extreme departures while departures around it or much less extreme.  

 

I just posted about it in NNE thread with some more details... but the climate normals think that Burlington and Saint Johnsbury have the same climate.  There's no way that's correct...the Champlain Valley at 300ft has to be 2-3 degrees warmer than the upper CT Valley in NE VT at 700ft.  CAD, radiational cooling, 400ft extra elevation...I can't figure out how long term climo thinks those two sites are the same climate.  What ends up happening is, obviously St Johnsbury comes in a few degrees colder, but since long term climo records think the climates are the same, St J gets a negative departure, while BTV gets a positive departure and you end up with a map like that.

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:lol: at the BTV ring of red up there in the northern half of the Champlain Valley.  As usual, BTV leading the way on departures, while MPV and 1V4 climo sites east of the Greens come in with departures like a full 3-4 degrees cooler. 

 

BTV: +2.9

MVL: +1.8

PBG: +1.2

MPV: 0.0

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I just posted about it in NNE thread with some more details... but the climate normals think that Burlington and Saint Johnsbury have the same climate.  There's no way that's correct...the Champlain Valley at 300ft has to be 2-3 degrees warmer than the upper CT Valley in NE VT at 700ft.  CAD, radiational cooling, 400ft extra elevation...I can't figure out how long term climo thinks those two sites are the same climate.  What ends up happening is, obviously St Johnsbury comes in a few degrees colder, but since long term climo records think the climates are the same, St J gets a negative departure, while BTV gets a positive departure and you end up with a map like that.

 

That's really interesting...glad to know that!

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See the NNE thread...I just don't believe the average temperatures are correct (though I guess they have to be) at 1V4 and MPV which is throwing off their departures.

 

You're still just talking about 20 days of departures versus the long term climate. It's fairly easy for a pattern to set in for 20 days that favors the large positive departure from BTV to 1V4.

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You're still just talking about 20 days of departures versus the long term climate. It's fairly easy for a pattern to set in for 20 days that favors the large positive departure from BTV to 1V4.

This isn't the first time I've talked about this though...I'll try to grab some actual annual temperatures to illustrate it later. Gotta add up the F6s. I'll bet anything St J comes in a few cooler than BTV. I remember talking to CTsnowstorm about this when he was at Lyndon...how MVL climate is listed as a few degrees colder than 1V4 and we couldn't figure it out as they are both in that 700ft elevation range east of the Greens, and how MPV was warmer than MVL despite being 500ft higher in elevation and it's not like MPV doesn't radiate at night.

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The 00Z Euro for 6/22 says all aboard Tips space shuttle rocket fuel heat wave for early July.

It keeps getting muted when we get inside d7-8. It's going to get us eventually. The euro hits us over the top after torching the James Bay area to 90F. I'd take that d10 prog if we can cool it right back down. That would be near 100F for IZG.
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wtf is the euro doing at hr 192 off the mid-atlantic coast on the 12z run?

 

It's a rapid phase transitioned, book-end vortex that takes on TC profile before immediately weakening over the shelf waters S of LI.  Probably won't be there in reality, but it is not impossible for that to happen.  Again, book-end spin ups (along the trailing ends of old boundaries) are more common in the beginning and end of TC season.

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after looking things over ... increasing confidence for positive departures closing out the month then heading into the 4th weekend. could be a break in there with frontalysis running into strengthening sub-tropic ridging exerting back N-NW from the S ...convective wetness, but temps probably rebound as any such boundary is ineffectual.   Looking warm to hot, then steamy and thundery followed by more heat.

 

No comment on extremeness.

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