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June Discussion

Bostonseminole

By Bostonseminole,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

And yet not too far from reality in the northern Great Lakes this morning:

wcjqlg.png

Let's get some of that air in here ;). Looks like a nice airmass the next couple days for getting outside.

Zone for Lamoille has 50/70/40s/80s for the next 48 hours tonight/tomorrow/night/Monday.

Also...lol at SLK being 51F in the late afternoon in mid June.

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Nittany88

Nittany88

Posted
Posted

Let's get some of that air in here ;). Looks like a nice airmass the next couple days for getting outside.

Zone for Lamoille has 50/70/40s/80s for the next 48 hours tonight/tomorrow/night/Monday.

Also...lol at SLK being 51F in the late afternoon in mid June.

 

Lol what a hole.

 

KSLK 142212Z AUTO 24006KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC006 11/10 A2998 AO2 RAB05 CIG 003V009 P0001 T01060100

 

10443346_672556802816224_841974896104420

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted

yep he was delayed, not very many could have left because it was rocking, got home at 2 am to go to work for 7 for a 19 hr day,fun....

Fantastic concert, Steve Miller was great and Tower of Power was tight. Good times excellent tailgate talent show.

you should probably provide a source for your signature
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

"...12z Euro even colder for eastern Ontario and drifting frostable air into Maine by D6 ... just incredible in June.  But, the usual caveat of the Euro being enough to actually piss people off with it's crazy dig bias beyond D5 (ish) must provide pause on that.  We'll see...."

 

As expected, the op. Euro backed off a bit on the scale/anomaly of that polar-severed packet of air that it pulls down over eastern Ontario and clips(ed) NNE with for late week.  However, ... it still has it in general.   I think, though, it better to get this particular 12z run digested on that.  It will be clad D4 lead when so, and I see a 50/50 chance that the entire deep layered atmospheric synoptic evolution will be substantially different enough that it may not exist at all, or in a less latitude-invasive form.  

 

What the model has been doing (and was/is keeping with it's bias to over-do so...) was taking a small parcel of wayward/abandoned mid stream dynamics over the upper Midwest, and then moving it toward western Ontario ... soon after which it then subsumes it by a piece of polar dynamics, and together they core out a -2 or even -3 SD height hole over eastern Ontario and the western Maritime region.  

 

Firstly, that can happen.  Absolutely.  Polar streams subsume middle stream impulses as a pretty regular phenomenon in the atmosphere, everywhere, and resulting in varying anomalies. Among the more extreme examples being February of 1978 ... earlier in January in the Lakes region that same year.   But in this case, we merely stack a deep anomaly out of the stream phase, and consequently then drill a cool boundary clear down the coast to the Va. Capes latitude(s) within just 24 hours (latter Wed into Thu).

 

Keeping in mind the Euro's "diggy" bias, and then seeing the 12z to 00z trend back off some 1/3rd of magnitude for all components, I think it possible that another incremental ~ 1/3 backs off on this next run, and we wind up with something more seasonal in complexion for eastern Ontario and the western Maritimes.  Then, it's up to details to determine how that all would effect the temperatures for Thur through Saturday...

 

I suspect NNE gets a refreshing dent back in T's post the late Tuesday very warm day that will likely pan the NE U.S.. Should be mid to upper 80s on late Tue afternoon, just looking at the multi-model mean synoptic appeal alone.  BTV scores well in this... As does D.E.M., where katobatic flow combines with +14C, well-mixed 850mb air to maximize heat potential.  Big caveat is convective debris and DP loading up N, though... It's certainly possible that the Euro is over-doing that some, but I could easily be wrong there.  Obviously that would change the outcome, but initially the thermal fields would support that for (at least) SNE.

 

After all that ... I cannot say that a deeper Euro-like solution is false.  Every single 06z GFS' members out of the big 12 jumped on a Euro-like solution, but what is intriguing is that they are about 24 hours later.  Coincidence then?  Perhaps.  Again, good 12z cycle coming up here.  

 

The other extreme is the NAVGEM solution, which just refuses to give up on the idea of a Sonoran heat release that wafts up over the lower Lakes with 22C+ 850mb air.  That's nearing triple digit heat for the 19th!  The difference thereafter is its entirely different evolution over Ontario, having a much flatter flow and faster relaxed, western NAO domain; then pushes that heat right through the NE.  SNE gets two days back to back of 19C air at 850, with lowered RH, deep layer WSW flow.  I am not sure how good this model is for D4 and 5, but the sensible weather difference would be in stark contrast to that discussed above should things work out this way.    I don't know of any access to GFSX synoptic charts, but the machine guidance from 00z had 93F for FIT on Thur -- that is at least some support for this.   Interesting. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Reading this thread and not knowing the wx occurring would make me think it's been cold. My memory of putting in acs is it typically was around mid to late June. In fact, we tell trainees from other parts of the country not to expect consistently nice wx before the solstice. So my sense is this has been normal, and sure enough after writing the sentence I double checked the climo page and BOS is 0.1. Couldn't get much more normal. This week may take it up a bit with a 90 distinctly possible Wednesday.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

 

Tonight
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening...becoming light and variable.
 
 
ಠ_ಠ

 

 

Your favorite weather... deep radiational cooling during the summer months!

 

MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH

PRES IS LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING

IN MAINLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO

QUICKLY DROP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED MTN

VALLEYS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE U30S DACKS/NEK TO NEAR 50F

CPV/UHI. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED MID 30S FOR SLK...CRNT MAV FOR SLK

IS SHOWING 32F.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Reading this thread and not knowing the wx occurring would make me think it's been cold. My memory of putting in acs is it typically was around mid to late June. In fact, we tell trainees from other parts of the country not to expect consistently nice wx before the solstice. So my sense is this has been normal, and sure enough after writing the sentence I double checked the climo page and BOS is 0.1. Couldn't get much more normal. This week may take it up a bit with a 90 distinctly possible Wednesday.

 

Disconnect between what is written, versus "reading in" (as though there were some deeper intent that need be ferreted out).

 

Not you per se, but it's been the plight of "forum weather", et al, since their inception, really ... And unfortunately, the loss is on the side of the reader.  Mets can't really wax philosophy, and certainly take huge risk when putting that message across clothed in hyperbole, because the reader jumps on the emotion of it as the intent, less the analytical side.  Next thing you know ... "this thread is cold..." etc etc.  

 

I've read nothing but reminiscence to crap years of lore, but not much characterizing this particular year.  In fact, we've pointed out that most climo sites are actually modestly positive for the month so far.   A week ago the models were all in agreement that a reasonably expressed ridge would set up and deliver 85-90 hear for several days...  but since, we've discussed how the models found ways to erode back to something more seasonal in nature.  

 

Fwiw, I think this summer will deliver a heat wave or two, but I suspect as Scott was saying it may take another month. To your point, that may be climate friendly -- sure. But on a deeper level, the NAO is stubborn and this tendency to drop trough straight S out of eastern Ontario, like last month, seems to be trying to be engineered anew in the operation version.  Hey, as long as the night times stay above 50, my garden is good to go.

 

Btw, 2013 was the 4th warmest year in global tracking history, despite N/A biting cold during the 2013-2014 winter.  GW FTW!

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