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June Discussion


Bostonseminole

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that has to be a record?

 

 

Yes it is for longest start to met summer without hitting 80F.

 

June/July 2009 is the 2nd coldest June/July combo on record at ORH if I'm not mistaken. I think it msised the record by 0.1F.

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I mentioned 2009 not as an analog..but just the progression...I suppose it would not shock me to have a lack of heat in June and then perhaps have some of that push in for July. It's also possible the ridging stays out west and we just get these glancing shots too.

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In any event ... a warm to perhaps touching "very warm" week on Wednesday... "maybe" Thursday too, though that day is boundary prone.  

 

12z Euro even colder for eastern Ontario and drifting frostable air into Maine by D6 ... just incredible in June.  But, the usual caveat of the Euro being enough to actually piss people off with it's crazy dig bias beyond D5 (ish) must provide pause on that.  We'll see. The run is suspicious from the Pacific to the Atlantic beyond D5 ... It has all these height falls moving through the Rockies, and then (I think) the model, per coded instruction, runs home to base-line mommy beginning D5.5 by just spontaneously filling it all and replacing it with a ridge.  I suppose it is possible ... I was reading that the model has correction schemes that it employs to smooth out "noise" out in time; my suspicion with the Euro is that those corrections (base-line) area PNAP configuration with geo-forced Rockies height bulge and eastern N/A resulting negative balance, and that is why we see trough bias in the NE in the late middle and extended ranges.  

 

But that's just speculation after watching/using this model for so many years. Who knows why, but the model definitely over deepens SPV type features beyond D5 over SE Canada and the Maritimes.  Then, when one finally does go that anomalous ... the model looks genius. This thing yanking an arctic plume and swashing it down over eastern Ontario and across NNE looks quite suspiciously like the same tactic. 

 

One thing I am noticing about the "real" base-line status of the atmosphere is the stark lack of sub-tropical ridging intensity around the girdle of the NH.  It seems a kind of ... 2nd derivative of the AO has pulsed a negative wave that's penetrated through the mean Hadley Cell boundary and compensates for the more typical seasonal onset of the STR bulge.  The result is shortened wave length maelstrom everywhere with cold pockets descending immediately astride warm ones yanked N.  Heck ... for that matter the AO is technically negative - even though these tele's should fall off correlation/coherency with respect to patterns by now...  

 

Whatever the cause, STRs have been a bit a flaccid thus far.  When was the last time we saw a bona fide west Atlantic Bermuda set up?  Certainly as of yet this year.  And .. .the Total AAM agrees with the road we've come, showing predominating negative observed global torque ... Even though that's "global", the follwing product argues that the negative propensity has been rather ubiquitous.

 

gltotaam.sig.90day.png

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That also argues for the easterly trade winds we have been seeing too across the ENSO regions. 

 

Wonder if that will translate into the Atlantic Basin too.   As we know ... deeper easterly fetch engenders lowered mean shear, so that would be a positive kick back into TC potential (intuitively at least...).   2005 was never supposed to be above normal, either -- how'd that work out for 'em!?

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I don't know, this seems to be a pretty typical June. I don't recall a whole lot of heat waves in June in the past anyway.

 

Don't think anyone's questioned the typology of June here.  Just that the original ridging signal has been muted, and that there's been a propensity for doing so as of late.  

 

That said ... the departures are +.3 to +1.6 for the main climo sites in SNE, through the 13th.  So very modestly above normal.  

 

Heh, funny how it doesn't seem that way.  

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Don't think anyone's questioned the typology of June here.  Just that the original ridging signal has been muted, and that there's been a propensity for doing so as of late.  

 

That said ... the departures are +.3 to +1.6 for the main climo sites in SNE, through the 13th.  So very modestly above normal.  

 

Heh, funny how it doesn't seem that way.  

Gotchya, just seeing all the references to 2009, which was cool. Yeah we're actually well above here at BTV (+4.3).

 

June hasn't been cold..it's more the overall upper level pattern that has been somewhat stagnant for awhile. May wasn't cold either..although it ended on a chilly note.

Yeah tis true.

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Gotchya, just seeing all the references to 2009, which was cool. Yeah we're actually well above here at BTV (+4.3).

 

Yeah tis true.

 

I commented earlier...2009 wasn't mentioned as an analog..(At least by me)..It's the overall progression that is possible. IOW, cool at times and perhaps little in the way of severe..and then maybe changing the pattern a bit for July. So far though...I don't see a pattern reversal yet, but climo does warm and as we head into July....these heat domes will probably make some more progression north and eastward.

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In any event ... a warm to perhaps touching "very warm" week on Wednesday... "maybe" Thursday too, though that day is boundary prone.  

 

12z Euro even colder for eastern Ontario and drifting frostable air into Maine by D6 ... just incredible in June.  But, the usual caveat of the Euro being enough to actually piss people off with it's crazy dig bias beyond D5 (ish) must provide pause on that.  We'll see. The run is suspicious from the Pacific to the Atlantic beyond D5 ... It has all these height falls moving through the Rockies, and then (I think) the model, per coded instruction, runs home to base-line mommy beginning D5.5 by just spontaneously filling it all and replacing it with a ridge.  I suppose it is possible ... I was reading that the model has correction schemes that it employs to smooth out "noise" out in time; my suspicion with the Euro is that those corrections (base-line) area PNAP configuration with geo-forced Rockies height bulge and eastern N/A resulting negative balance, and that is why we see trough bias in the NE in the late middle and extended ranges.  

 

But that's just speculation after watching/using this model for so many years. Who knows why, but the model definitely over deepens SPV type features beyond D5 over SE Canada and the Maritimes.  Then, when one finally does go that anomalous ... the model looks genius. This thing yanking an arctic plume and swashing it down over eastern Ontario and across NNE looks quite suspiciously like the same tactic. 

 

One thing I am noticing about the "real" base-line status of the atmosphere is the stark lack of sub-tropical ridging intensity around the girdle of the NH.  It seems a kind of ... 2nd derivative of the AO has pulsed a negative wave that's penetrated through the mean Hadley Cell boundary and compensates for the more typical seasonal onset of the STR bulge.  The result is shortened wave length maelstrom everywhere with cold pockets descending immediately astride warm ones yanked N.  Heck ... for that matter the AO is technically negative - even though these tele's should fall off correlation/coherency with respect to patterns by now...  

 

Whatever the cause, STRs have been a bit a flaccid thus far.  When was the last time we saw a bona fide west Atlantic Bermuda set up?  Certainly as of yet this year.  And .. .the Total AAM agrees with the road we've come, showing predominating negative observed global torque ... Even though that's "global", the follwing product argues that the negative propensity has been rather ubiquitous.

 

 

 

And yet not too far from reality in the northern Great Lakes this morning:

 

wcjqlg.png

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I commented earlier...2009 wasn't mentioned as an analog..(At least by me)..It's the overall progression that is possible. IOW, cool at times and perhaps little in the way of severe..and then maybe changing the pattern a bit for July. So far though...I don't see a pattern reversal yet, but climo does warm and as we head into July....these heat domes will probably make some more progression north and eastward.

 

Even the heat across the central and southern parts of the country so far this season has been far from impressive from what I can recall.

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Even the heat across the central and southern parts of the country so far this season has been far from impressive from what I can recall.

 

They've had a lot of rain too which helps. Pretty sure wet soil on crops that aren't fully developed have a bigger effect on energy lost due to evaporation in May and June compared to summer when crops  are matured and leaves block some of the insolation reaching the top soil.

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Dude, did Journey ever make it on stage last night? I just read that people were leaving at 10:30 and they still were missing one guy.

yep he was delayed, not very many could have left because it was rocking, got home at 2 am to go to work for 7 for a 19 hr day,fun....

Fantastic concert, Steve Miller was great and Tower of Power was tight. Good times excellent tailgate talent show.

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June 2009 made this June look warm and dry

But July was big thunder iirc

 

True enough.  My highest that month was 77, and after a dry start, we entered a stretch that had 49 days with rain (17.5" total) in a 56 day period.  The heat and didn't do much up here in July, either, though we did hear some rumbles.  After the nice 86 on May 21, the next 12 weeks featured exactly 1 day cracking 80, on July 29.  June-July 2009 recorded 32 cloudy days here; next highest for JJ is 21, last year.

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