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June Discussion

Bostonseminole

By Bostonseminole,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

box discussion

BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS
AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE DAVIS
STRAIT INTO SOUTHERN GREENLAND. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME DOMINATES THE CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETTING UP ACROSS THE MS AND TN VLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE
FAST FLOW OFFERS LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE ESPECIALLY
WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THUS AS WE DID LAST
NIGHT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN USE THE ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ AS A
BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND STAY AWAY FROM THE HI
RES DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE
OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSED
NORTHERN STREAM/POLAR JET PRECLUDES ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AT TIMES INLAND.
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE 50S
TO NEAR 60.

REGARDING PRECIP...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX OVER THE ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING MARCHES
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS AND OH VLY THIS WEEKEND...THEN APPROACHING
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN NGT/MON. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ALONG
WITH DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DEAMPLIFY THIS TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS
TROUGH RESULTING IN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM LATE MON
INTO MON NGT AND POSSIBLY EARLY TUE. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE AND
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES PREFER TO LEAN ON THE DRIER
ENSEMBLES. THUS WILL UNDERCUT POPS HERE FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. THEN THE NEXT RISK OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE
WEEK WHEN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE MS AND TN VLY KICKS EASTWARD
CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

box discussion

BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS

AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER LATITUDES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT

WEEK...WITH A PERSISTENT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE DAVIS

STRAIT INTO SOUTHERN GREENLAND. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH A SPLIT FLOW

REGIME DOMINATES THE CONUS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH

SETTING UP ACROSS THE MS AND TN VLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE

FAST FLOW OFFERS LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME RANGE ESPECIALLY

WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THUS AS WE DID LAST

NIGHT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN USE THE ENSEMBLES /GEFS AND ECENS/ AS A

BASELINE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND STAY AWAY FROM THE HI

RES DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE

OF EACH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND ASSOCIATED SUPPRESSED

NORTHERN STREAM/POLAR JET PRECLUDES ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY

FROM ADVECTING NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO BE

SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 AT TIMES INLAND.

COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AS WELL WITH DEW PTS PROGGED TO BE IN THE 50S

TO NEAR 60.

REGARDING PRECIP...SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE

COMPLEX OVER THE ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING MARCHES

ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS AND OH VLY THIS WEEKEND...THEN APPROACHING

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUN NGT/MON. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ALONG

WITH DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DEAMPLIFY THIS TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES NEW

ENGLAND. HOWEVER THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THISTROUGH RESULTING IN A RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM LATE MON

INTO MON NGT AND POSSIBLY EARLY TUE. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE AND

POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES PREFER TO LEAN ON THE DRIERENSEMBLES. THUS WILL UNDERCUT POPS HERE FROM CHANCE TO SLIGHT

CHANCE. THEN THE NEXT RISK OF CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LATE IN THE

WEEK WHEN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE MS AND TN VLY KICKS EASTWARD

CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND.

Lol.you just proved their point with this post. No one said excessive.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

No sign of 40's in the forecast anymore.  :icecream:

MAV has 49F for CON tonight...then that's it for awhile. Of course that means 52-53F here.

I need my occasional 40s in the summer to help cool the house down without A/C. There were quite a few years in the '70s where we pulled off 30s in July. I'm not sure if we've done it since then. Then there's HIE which I think hit 31F in July 2001 or something. What a wasteland.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

MAV has 49F for CON tonight...then that's it for awhile. Of course that means 52-53F here.

I need my occasional 40s in the summer to help cool the house down without A/C. There were quite a few years in the '70s where we pulled off 30s in July. I'm not sure if we've done it since then. Then there's HIE which I think hit 31F in July 2001 or something. What a wasteland.

 

Happy 4th...

FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE (272999)ExtremesLowest Daily Minimum Temperature degrees FDays: 7/1 - 7/31Length of period: 1 dayYears: 1850-2014Rank  Value  Ending Date  1    29.0    7/ 2/1992  2    30.0    7/ 5/1962  3    31.0    7/ 3/1962
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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Can't really trust those pt - click values anyway, as they are defaulted off machine guidance/DB.   They can be manipulated ..., but personnel often don't get around to it. In quiescent times is a Met at an NWS office going to sense enough urgency to go in there and fiddle with the numbers?   Actually, when the sh t's hitting the fan, they can't, anyways.  I wonder what their job description is as far as doing so; it's gotta be in there, because the public uses them.  

 

I just have come to find that there is a fairly notable gap between internal discussion content and those values, and was told by a Met from an NWS office that those values are less than ideally populated.  In the plains, for example, though rare ... sometimes we'll get blizzard warning headlines going and the click-cast says something enlightening like, "Partly sunny with snow developing becoming heaving with extensive blowing and drifting.  High in the mid 50s"    zoinks  :wacko2:

 

'NWS doesn't seem to think it's going to be colder than normal'  - -haha.  J/k Steve

 

Not exactly. They are based off the forecast database. We can make that database look however we want based on our forecast thoughts (and they are the same grids that run the text products like ZFP too). Basically it is one of our main job duties, to make sure the forecast gets to the website (preferably consistent and collaborated).

 

Now whether you want to trust them is a valid question. It's nearly impossible to get every 2.5 km grid correct within a CWA. And if the weenies want IMBY stuff, 2.5 km just isn't going to cut it.

 

You are right though, the text formatters and P&C are inherently "stupid," so any grid errors (like blizzard conditions, temps in the 50s) will show up in these if we don't QC diligently.

 

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted

Are you serious? You need an air conditioner?? Just joking. I'm not going to rehash that perennial discussion.

GC, ftw. :)

Yes, GC for the win. ..

I'm open minded when it comes to the use of ac... But I think it's a little hypocritical to require them after 5/15 for survival, but claim that you love extremes and can't live without HHH weather. Always found that amusing.

Sent from my SPH-L720T

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