CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I'll be glued to the models this weekend in anticipation. Man, this pattern has been dreadfully boring...though I guess that's usually par for the course here, but even for our weak standards in summer. All the rain I've had since May 1st, has been accompanied by one distant rumble of thunder...lol. Purely synoptic rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I'll be glued to the models this weekend in anticipation. Man, this pattern has been dreadfully boring...though I guess that's usually par for the course here, but even for our weak standards in summer. Yeah this is worse than normal. Just a total snoozer. Euro would offer up some severe chances Wed and Thu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 All the rain I've had since May 1st, has been accompanied by one distant rumble of thunder...lol. Purely synoptic rains. That's amazing considering we don't get stratiform rain this time of the year. Yeah this is worse than normal. Just a total snoozer. Euro would offer up some severe chances Wed and Thu? Yeah...even if our severe chances often come with problems...even just some solid clusters of strong storms would be a nice change of pace. I've hardly heard any thunder this season. Maybe twice. Hopefully that system trakcs up into N NY to give us a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 That's amazing considering we don't get stratiform rain this time of the year. Yeah...even if our severe chances often come with problems...even just some solid clusters of strong storms would be a nice change of pace. I've hardly heard any thunder this season. Maybe twice. Hopefully that system trakcs up into N NY to give us a shot. The wx has been pleasant though overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 That's amazing considering we don't get stratiform rain this time of the year. Yeah...even if our severe chances often come with problems...even just some solid clusters of strong storms would be a nice change of pace. I've hardly heard any thunder this season. Maybe twice. Hopefully that system trakcs up into N NY to give us a shot. Yeah it's been a weird season... we had a 5 day stretch with the tornado near Albany, the big hail in E CT, and the microburst in W CT. Other that that there's been nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Boring is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I'll be glued to the models this weekend in anticipation. Already stocking up on Red Bulls to stay up for the 00z ECMWF on Sat and Sun, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Yeah it's been a weird season... we had a 5 day stretch with the tornado near Albany, the big hail in E CT, and the microburst in W CT. Other that that there's been nothing! Yeah and that structually nice looking mini-supercell in ORH county during that same period...which of course I wasn't able to track. There's just been a dearth of thunderstorms in general it feels like so far. Hopefully we at least get some strong ones next week to break up the monotony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Already stocking up on Red Bulls to stay up for the 00z ECMWF on Sat and Sun, huh? It is amazing how little I'll look at the models in the summer vs winter...unless there's a unique severe setup or TC I usually just look at the Euro and perhaps the GEFS once or twice a day. In winter, its on a whole different level. I remember though in the 36-48 hours leading up to the 6/1/11 event, we were up late at night looking at the NAM/GFS coming out. The night before almost felt like a winter storm...we were all posting soundings. In retrospect, it felt good that we seemed to sniff out something pretty special for that one...we never usually pay that much attention to model runs coming out up in these parts for severer wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 It's come down to looking at radar images from 12/19-12/20 2008..lol. I was doing that this morning. My area got nailed in that one. Next week looks like maritime tropical skinny CAPE profile crap. Would be nice to get that heat ridge east to get some good elevated stuff...or at least boost the CAPE profiles at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 It is amazing how little I'll look at the models in the summer vs winter...unless there's a unique severe setup or TC I usually just look at the Euro and perhaps the GEFS once or twice a day. In winter, its on a whole different level. I remember though in the 36-48 hours leading up to the 6/1/11 event, we were up late at night looking at the NAM/GFS coming out. The night before almost felt like a winter storm...we were all posting soundings. In retrospect, it felt good that we seemed to sniff out something pretty special for that one...we never usually pay that much attention to model runs coming out up in these parts for severer wx. That week was awesome. I'll never forget when I saw the SPC place us in a D5-6 outlook...while we don't see that all too much when we have typically it's gone the next outlook and we don't get anything again until D3 or even D2...but we were in a risk outlook from D5-6 all the way through the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Seems like a typical June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Soaked. Wet. Windy. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Boring June's equal perfect golf weather...nuthin betta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 what's the matter with sunny and pleasant in the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 6, 2014 Author Share Posted June 6, 2014 Nice weekend incoming, have a great weekend everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 what's the matter with sunny and pleasant in the summer? perfect, grain of salt,when your 16 day forecast had a high of 83 and a high DP of 62 life is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Could be muggy mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Could be muggy mid week. Looks like a set-up for it ahead of that energy slowly moving through the Ohio Valley around Wednesday...pumping up some moist air ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Could be muggy mid week. Pretty typical... the other day was just gross. I think 68F/65 feels worse than 85/65. Riding the waves. I could see big heat coming in 10 days- 2 weeks or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Pretty typical... the other day was just gross. I think 68F/65 feels worse than 85/65. Riding the waves. I could see big heat coming in 10 days- 2 weeks or so It's a hostile pattern for big heat, but could be one of those situations of a day or two of hot weather if things works out before a little cooling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 It is a hostile pattern for sustained bigger heat... but I also see a deeper signal here. We got the 00z op. Euro run and another attempt to build a fairly large median anomaly ridge for the eastern 1/3rd of the contiguous beyond D5. This is third or maybe fourth run amid the last bunch of cycles I've seen do this. The thing is ... the 50,000 foot view of the operational GFS have done this occasionally as well, but the signal hasn't been as obvious due to the fact that the GFS doesn't employ any smoothing algorithms like the Euro does, such that it's "noisier" in general. This, despite whatever indications by the ensembles... I was thinking about this, though; the teleconnectors in general become much less useful during the warm months of the year. The teleconnectors were also engineered using the blend of the ensembles. If the tele's are less useful, and they are derived from the ensembles, shouldn't the ensembles also be less dependable ?? I dunno. But, there may indeed be a "background" sort of signal emerging for western trough/eastern ridge of whatever unknown magnitude or duration going on. Perhaps the operational models are sniffing it out (so to speak). Either way, the Euro was a warm week in coming. Pretty impressive backdoor front for like ...D7.5 which in my mind won't be there on the next run... before it's fantasy range heats up again. Interesting that it's overcoming it's own bias of lowering eastern heights too much to do so, though. We'll see. But I get the feeling that those that may have been interpreting things as normalized, might want to tune their lenses. I know this temperature jazz is tedious. But I'm a dynamic nerd, in that I can find interesting aspects in all areas of Met. One thing I have also noticed is that folks play around with semantics when "debating" what's really going on. Maybe it can be quantified: < -5F departure for a month = holy sh t! - 5F departure = excessively cool -3.5 to -5 departure = much cooler than average -2 to -3.5 departure = cooler than average -.5 to -2 departure = somewhat cooler than average -.5 to +.5 departure = essentially normal N to N ...going positive ... or something like this. This way, when someone doesn't like the look of the pattern, because it doesn't set well with their desires ... we can compare their resulting passive troll post against the value of the model derived numbers ... haha (nope, you were wrong: nah, nah, nah-nah, nah). Anyway, using the MOS machine guidance from the American models, this week would/should average out to be much warmer than normal for HFD, FIT, ORH, BED, using that fictitious scale. Not sure about coastal zones with that S wind at times ...tending to bend east by day. Taken for what it's worth, eye-balling HFD for example I'm coming up with GFSX MOS average bias of +4 for the 6 days. ..similar values elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 It's a hostile pattern for big heat, but could be one of those situations of a day or two of hot weather if things works out before a little cooling off. Yeah... I should have been more clear. Not a big sustained deal, but maybe approaching a 2-3 day thing, close to a heat wave for some folks like Wiz/Ryan. Maybe even a place like ASH tickles 90 once or something. Way to early for specifics The flow is pretty boring but keeping sensible wx close to average. For me, that is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Yeah... I should have been more clear. Not a big sustained deal, but maybe approaching a 2-3 day thing, close to a heat wave for some folks like Wiz/Ryan. Maybe even a place like ASH tickles 90 once or something. Way to early for specifics The flow is pretty boring but keeping sensible wx close to average. For me, that is a win. Yeah we'll have some warm days for sure. It's not a coolish or BN type pattern as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Yeah... I should have been more clear. Not a big sustained deal, but maybe approaching a 2-3 day thing, close to a heat wave for some folks like Wiz/Ryan. Maybe even a place like ASH tickles 90 once or something. Way to early for specifics The flow is pretty boring but keeping sensible wx close to average. For me, that is a win. A bit O/T, but why do they use the arbitrary threshold of 90* for a heatwave? I know they have different levels for WSW between offices. But within BOX, you have areas like the Cape and GC where 90* is a rarity. As opposed to the Merrimack/CT valleys and other locales where they're a dime-a-dozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 Took a quad up about 1500' above my house into the low clouds yesterday. Pretty cool to see the temp drop about 6 degrees (likely more, but there's about a minute delay in actual temp). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 how do you do that? awesome pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 DJI quadcopter with flytrex chip and go pro knockoff. Best $580 toy EVER, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 DJI quadcopter with flytrex chip and go pro knockoff. Best $580 toy EVER, lol. ut oh I may be having bride troubles soon, got to get me one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 DJI quadcopter with flytrex chip and go pro knockoff. Best $580 toy EVER, lol. awesome-how high can it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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