Deck Pic Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 June: +1 to +2 July: +1 August: -1 to -2 Overall: Normal to +1 Precip: Normal 90 degree days for JJA: 30-35 100 degree days: 0 Longest 90 streak: 7-9 days Analogs: 1986, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/29/capital-weather-gang-2014-summer-outlook-a-lot-like-last-summer-hot-but-not-brutally-so/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Nicely done, Matt. I'd take last summer in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 I'd prefer '04, but this would be ok. Are there any correlations that show up with very wet Springs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 That's a pretty tolerable summer if it pans out. Good luck with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 30, 2014 Author Share Posted May 30, 2014 I'd prefer '04, but this would be ok. Are there any correlations that show up with very wet Springs? for developing Ninos, reverse nino climo configuration....Cold Upper midwest and Northern plains...warm in dixie and southern plains...we're caught in between.....including all years....wall to wall heat for us, but the correlation is pretty weak once you aggregate enough years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 8, 2014 Author Share Posted June 8, 2014 June: +1 to +2 July: +1 August: -1 to -2 Overall: Normal to +1 Precip: Normal 90 degree days for JJA: 30-35 100 degree days: 0 Longest 90 streak: 7-9 days Analogs: 1986, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/29/capital-weather-gang-2014-summer-outlook-a-lot-like-last-summer-hot-but-not-brutally-so/ June will end up being a pretty easy call as long as high pressure keeps holding to our north and northeast...doesnt look like any death domes on the horizon...but averaging a +2 or higher should be a cakewalk over the next 10 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 June will end up being a pretty easy call as long as high pressure keeps holding to our north and northeast...doesnt look like any death domes on the horizon...but averaging a +2 or higher should be a cakewalk over the next 10 days... Nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Nailed it. Thanks...Hopefully my July is too hot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 June: +1 to +2 July: +1 August: -1 to -2 Overall: Normal to +1 Precip: Normal 90 degree days for JJA: 30-35 100 degree days: 0 Longest 90 streak: 7-9 days Analogs: 1986, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/29/capital-weather-gang-2014-summer-outlook-a-lot-like-last-summer-hot-but-not-brutally-so/ June: +1 to +2 July: +1 August: -1 to -2 Overall: Normal to +1 Precip: Normal 90 degree days for JJA: 30-35 100 degree days: 0 Longest 90 streak: 7-9 days Analogs: 1986, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/29/capital-weather-gang-2014-summer-outlook-a-lot-like-last-summer-hot-but-not-brutally-so/ This is looking really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 June: +1 to +2 July: +1 August: -1 to -2 Overall: Normal to +1 Precip: Normal 90 degree days for JJA: 30-35 100 degree days: 0 Longest 90 streak: 7-9 days Analogs: 1986, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/29/capital-weather-gang-2014-summer-outlook-a-lot-like-last-summer-hot-but-not-brutally-so/ nobody cares about summer or your summer forecast but good job. mAybe you had too many 90 degree days and streaks but overall, you didnt call for a hot summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 12, 2014 Share Posted August 12, 2014 nobody cares about summer or your summer forecast but good job. mAybe you had too many 90 degree days and streaks but overall, you didnt call for a hot summer You may not but you cannot speak for the rest. Pretty rude actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 June: +1 to +2 July: +1 August: -1 to -2 Overall: Normal to +1 Precip: Normal 90 degree days for JJA: 30-35 100 degree days: 0 Longest 90 streak: 7-9 days Analogs: 1986, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/29/capital-weather-gang-2014-summer-outlook-a-lot-like-last-summer-hot-but-not-brutally-so/ too easy ..hopefully I can get winter right, since that is all that matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 too easy ..hopefully I can get winter right, since that is all that matters Nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 too easy ..hopefully I can get winter right, since that is all that matters Good call on the months for sure. But I have to critique so... Only 15 90+ so far and longest streak was 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 22, 2014 Author Share Posted August 22, 2014 Good call on the months for sure. But I have to critique so... Only 15 90+ so far and longest streak was 3 days. The intangibles will be pretty bad.....the overall will be great and the monthlies should be pretty good...of course DCA is a bit of a warm outlier, but that is what I base my projections on, and I make an adjustment for the mins...I might consider doing an area wide forecast for future outlooks, blending the 3 airports... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 23, 2014 Share Posted August 23, 2014 It was another excellent outlook and not the first time either. Truth be told(at the risk of realizing many do not like the truth) after about 12 years of the long range seasonal forecasting the people that should be listened to, in order of accuracy and importance, are- you, me,KA,Don S. and Isotherm. The rest dabble, decry, do alphabet soup of indexes but as far as putting it on the table in a specific and unwavering fashion-not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 24, 2014 Author Share Posted August 24, 2014 It was another excellent outlook and not the first time either. Truth be told(at the risk of realizing many do not like the truth) after about 12 years of the long range seasonal forecasting the people that should be listened to, in order of accuracy and importance, are- you, me,KA,Don S. and Isotherm. The rest dabble, decry, do alphabet soup of indexes but as far as putting it on the table in a specific and unwavering fashion-not so much. Thanks....I enjoy everyone's input...there is always a ton to learn...There are others who know a whole lot more than me....It isn't for everyone and not everyone wants to do regional outlooks, but what we do is unique in that we put out scorable numbers every year...I can go back 10 years and provide all my outlooks....I think having a verifiable track record is actually somewhat unique...But I don't think I know it all....I have a lot of bad misses, and I am more interested in learning than anything....These outlooks are still just fun for me more than anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Very well done this summer, Matt. Definitely got the character and pattern of the summer well predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 25, 2014 Author Share Posted August 25, 2014 Very well done this summer, Matt. Definitely got the character and pattern of the summer well predicted. thanks..now I just need to get winter right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 3, 2014 Share Posted September 3, 2014 June: +1 to +2 July: +1 August: -1 to -2 Overall: Normal to +1 Precip: Normal 90 degree days for JJA: 30-35 100 degree days: 0 Longest 90 streak: 7-9 days Analogs: 1986, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/05/29/capital-weather-gang-2014-summer-outlook-a-lot-like-last-summer-hot-but-not-brutally-so/ This is stellar. A +0.3 predicted with a +0.4 realized. June nailed the temp, July off, August good- very good. Precipitation was normal, JJA 90+ call too high but the seasonal aspect will likely be good. This was Excellent overall. We've been at this seasonal outlook effort for over 12 years and it's not 50/50 as used to be suggested. You are 2/3 and 1/3 and KA used to hit that mark but not as much lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 15, 2014 Author Share Posted September 15, 2014 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/09/12/grading-our-2014-summer-outlook-not-too-shabby/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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