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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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First thunder of the year at my place yesterday. My wife got to see multiple C-G strikes and heard lots of loud crashes as the storm formed just to our east - nearly all of our 0.16" came later that evening. I still haven't heard thunder this year, as the action was all done before I got home.

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It's one thing to get that kind of thermodynamic profile... it happens every once in a while as we know. But to get that kind of profile with 50 knot winds at 850 and some strong veering in the 0-1/0-3km layer is pretty wild for this area.

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The number of violent tornadoes in that outbreak would make it an impressive outbreak in the Great Plains. For that to happen in Pennsylvania is nuts. 

 

That would be an all-timer even in the Plains, that many violent tornadoes usually doesn't happen in a single event in the Plains. Even in the Southeast, it would be an all-timer.

 

I've mentioned this before but an event this intense this far northeast is probably more rare than an outbreak of the caliber of 4/27/11, 4/11/65, 4/3/74, 3/21/32, 2/19-20/1884, etc. Grazulis placed the odds at about 1 in 75,000.

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That would be an all-timer even in the Plains, that many violent tornadoes usually doesn't happen in a single event in the Plains. Even in the Southeast, it would be an all-timer.

 

I forgot about the violent tornadoes in Ontario that day as well. 

 

43 tornadoes total

-28 sig tors

- 9 violent

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It's one thing to get that kind of thermodynamic profile... it happens every once in a while as we know. But to get that kind of profile with 50 knot winds at 850 and some strong veering in the 0-1/0-3km layer is pretty wild for this area.

 

To have that anywhere can be a bit impressive...sometimes when you start exceeding 40-45 knots at 850mb you can start running into issues with updrafts really being able to build but you have a very potent thermodynamic environment coupled with enhanced lift from jet quadrant it will work.  You can also run into the issue of having such strong WAA and theta-e advection you pop crap but not when you have an EML in place!

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The span of May 29th to June 2nd, 1998 was epic for this region...June 2nd was much more for PA, portions of NY down into MD and WV but one of the most underrated parts of that timeframe was what occurred on Friday, May 29th and how that day helped set the stage ofr all that to occur.  

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