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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Man, what a noisy morning. Its been one thunderstorm after another for hours straight, which explains why a flash flood warning was prompted for parts of se mass. I'm willing to bet we got another 2" of rain last night/through the morning and I'm sure much more towards attleboro, new bedford, etc...Talk about making up for lack of precip these past few days!

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The bottom line is this:

 

-there's going to a good amount of severe wx in New England over the next days

-there's going to be at least several low topped spinner's and TOR's

-damaging wet microbursts are the biggest threat

-this is going to be our biggest outbreak of the season

ASOUT: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/13/entry-140-new-england-severe-bust-7152014/

 

Should have stuck with my guns, especially with the writing on the wall.

 

Kudos to NE MA/SE NH/S ME for a small geographical area making out decently.

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No word yet on the possible TOR's in the Skow/Madison area but prelim so far in York, ME

NOUS41 KGYX 161756PNSGYXMEZ023-162200-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME156 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2014...MICROBURST CONFIRMED NEAR YORK IN YORK COUNTY MAINE...LOCATION...YORK IN YORK COUNTY MAINEDATE...JULY 15TH 2014ESTIMATED TIME...516PM EDTESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...70-80 MPH* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY ME HAS CONFIRMED AMICROBURST NEAR YORK IN YORK COUNTY MAINE ON JULY 15TH 2014.NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PERSONNEL ARE STILL IN YORK ASSESSING THEDAMAGE DONE BY THE MICROBURST YESTERDAY. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE HASBEEN CONFIRMED IN AND AROUND THE CITY OF YORK.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/GYX.FOR REFERENCE...A MICROBURST IS A CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT WITH AN AFFECTED OUTFLOWAREA OF LESS THAN 2 1/2 MILES WIDE AND PEAK WINDS LASTING LESSTHAN 5 MINUTES. MICROBURSTS MAY INDUCE DANGEROUSHORIZONTAL/VERTICAL WIND SHEARS...WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECTAIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. STRAIGHT-LINEWINDS ARE GENERALLY ANY WIND THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITHROTATION...USED MAINLY TO DIFFERENTIATE THEM FROM TORNADIC WINDS.$$POHL
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ASOUT: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/13/entry-140-new-england-severe-bust-7152014/

 

Should have stuck with my guns, especially with the writing on the wall.

 

Kudos to NE MA/SE NH/S ME for a small geographical area making out decently.

Nice writeup Quincy.   You could even tell by 3-4pm yesterday that this was not going to work out  (outside of heavy rains for a few areas)

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Too bad you didn't

 

The issue really was the convection that fired earlier over NYC. With us smokin' anvil for about 4 hours in the afternoon that really screwed us. Not sure what the other handwringing is about... other than that the day looked fine to me. 

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The issue really was the convection that fired earlier over NYC. With us smokin' anvil for about 4 hours in the afternoon that really screwed us. Not sure what the other handwringing is about... other than that the day looked fine to me. 

that's when I tossed in the towel....seen us get screwed a few ways in years past like this

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That was a nightmare coming back from Kenmore to Arlington. Standing water 8-12" in the middle of streets usually not prone to flooding. Alewife was almost impassable at the height of deluge. Mass Ave. Arlington (Ctr. of town) power outage, three detours end to end....oh boy....left late morning with less than a tenth arrived back with 2.14" in the bucket.  

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Widespread severe is hard to get here...usually best to stay conservative unless there's smoking guns all over the computer screen when looking at all the parameters and synoptic variables. Yesterday was a classic case of most of the region being "punished" by mesoscale features such as too much convective blowup to our SW.

 

Far NE MA/SE NH/S ME managed to cash in on the combo of best parameters and not being screwed by the convection to the southwest. So we had a localized severe event in that region.

 

 

I'm also admittedly a snob when it comes to severe, so the marginal events don't interest me as much as others here. I really prefer those W or NW flow EML events. That's the downside of getting exposed to the Texas severe wx.

 

 

 

It's easy for me to be lazy on not focus on the marginal stuff, but I don't envy those who really need to try and forecast these events. They aren't easy.

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Widespread severe is hard to get here...usually best to stay conservative unless there's smoking guns all over the computer screen when looking at all the parameters and synoptic variables. Yesterday was a classic case of most of the region being "punished" by mesoscale features such as too much convective blowup to our SW.

 

Far NE MA/SE NH/S ME managed to cash in on the combo of best parameters and not being screwed by the convection to the southwest. So we had a localized severe event in that region.

 

 

I'm also admittedly a snob when it comes to severe, so the marginal events don't interest me as much as others here. I really prefer those W or NW flow EML events. That's the downside of getting exposed to the Texas severe wx.

 

 

 

It's easy for me to be lazy on not focus on the marginal stuff, but I don't envy those who really need to try and forecast these events. They aren't easy.

 

Yeah severe is weird. When you're forecasting for a whole area (like CT) it makes it a lot easier to get invested because a "big event" can occur when nothing happens in your backyard.

 

Compared to snow or high winds or a hurricane when every :weenie: gets impacted... convection by its nature is so localized it almost always leads to disappoint. 

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Ne ma se nh into w me was highlighted 24 hours prior.. actually very well by models so

That's a good climo spot for those events. One big reason is deep srly flow marine layer is muted with all the distance traveled from the southern new england coast to the NH and ME borders.

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Interesting couple of days.  Significant rain all around my house, but since Sunday we only had a total of 0.71 inches and it was divided up pretty evenly between Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  None today.

 

With that many storms bouncing around, usually one will score a hit and drop some heavy rain - but none did, we were always on the edges.

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