OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Do drowned Hydrangeas count? As long as it's within a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Good call on extra staff. The models were an absolute soaking overnight no matter what the verbatim solutions were. By 12z they were giving a dumping of rain in some shape or form. CREST (distributed hydro model) plus HRRR QPF through the next 6 hours. Basically purple areas would indicate areas of heightened flash flooding concern based on what has fallen, what will fall, or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Wondering how rain/storms redevelop toward morning. Gfs looks wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 CREST_0715.png CREST (distributed hydro model) plus HRRR QPF through the next 6 hours. Basically purple areas would indicate areas of heightened flash flooding concern based on what has fallen, what will fall, or both. yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 CREST_0715.png CREST (distributed hydro model) plus HRRR QPF through the next 6 hours. Basically purple areas would indicate areas of heightened flash flooding concern based on what has fallen, what will fall, or both. 75 yr to 100 yr return period central CT? WTF? Dang.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 75 yr to 100 yr return period central CT? WTF? Dang.... Model runs hot, so don't take the actual values verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Ahh, the sweet sound of thunder in the early morning. Looks like we're finally getting our t-storms along the south shore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Model runs hot, so don't take the actual values verbatim. Still cut that in half you're still at like 40 to 50 yr return....a 2 to 2.5 % chance deal....I'll take that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Still cut that in half you're still at like 40 to 50 yr return....a 2 to 2.5 % chance deal....I'll take that.... It's not quite that simple. The model is trying to fit an exponential curve to about 10 years worth of data. So most of these streams have only experienced a 1 in 5 to 10 year flood in that time. So the verification on anything greater than about 2 times your period of record is probably pretty poor. I wouldn't trust things beyond a 25 year return period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Nothinh so far. hopefully that batch comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Looks like most of C and E Ct is done with rain with 7/10 split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 10.47" /hr on my Davis last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 1.41" storm total so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 10.47" /hr on my Davis last night. What was your total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 What was your total! .84 before the latest batch. I'm in southie now. Raced it out this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Pretty pathetic totals here. Deck looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 .84 LOL Better then here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Far SE MA getting it good. Looks like the 7/10 for Boston maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Looks like most of C and E Ct is done with rain with 7/10 splitMaybe. That batch near Philly might make its way up here later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 7/10 split for sure for 95 corridor PVD to BOS best I saw was a shower and some mist the past 2 days. only real rain was from the Cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Far SE MA getting it good. Looks like the 7/10 for Boston maybe.Hires says we get ours mid morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 7/10 split for sure for 95 corridor PVD to BOS I wouldn't be so sure. It looks like it's going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 That's an impressive plume of moisture to our south. I think my day working outside will be cut short. Looks like downpours coming pvd to bos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 1.41 total here. Euro had this area bulls eyed with 4 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 Had a couple branches down in the yard. Nothing major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 I wouldn't be so sure. It looks like it's going to be close. I think it looks better down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 deluge here now, brief rumble of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 2 day total of 1.9" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 16, 2014 Share Posted July 16, 2014 2 day total of 1.9" so far. 3 day total of 0.42". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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