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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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I see eck hit the switch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGMEC001-005-017-152115-/O.NEW.KGYX.SV.W.0033.140715T2037Z-140715T2115Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME437 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  CENTRAL ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MAINE...  SOUTHEASTERN OXFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN MAINE...  NORTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN MAINE...* UNTIL 515 PM EDT...* AT 430 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RANGE PONDS  STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES EAST OF NAPLES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40  MPH.* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RANGE  PONDS STATE PARK...MECHANIC FALLS...AUBURN...LEWISTON AND TURNER.LAT...LON 4389 7039 4400 7055 4439 7021 4433 7010      4430 7007 4421 7008 4420 7006 4419 7006      4418 7000TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 219DEG 36KT 4403 7038$$MLE
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Meanwhile, back in southeastern NY, the environment actually looks fairly good right now. Let's see if we can work some magic and fire some storms.

What defines fairly good? The best params on SPC mesoanalysis seem to be in SNH (including a supercell composite of 4, leading back to my statement that 4 is better than 2)
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What defines fairly good? The best params on SPC mesoanalysis seem to be in SNH (including a supercell composite of 4, leading back to my statement that 4 is better than 2)

50-55kts shear, stronger UL flow, 1500 J/kg SBCAPE and >1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
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