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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Latest hrrr is... Weird... It displaced the line to the east by 30 miles or so, and kills the rest of the day. Initialization issues, or a bad sign? No watch yet from the SPC doesn't bode well...

NW fringe, as expected. By 6 p.m. 17z HRRR shows a few healthy looking cells from POU/DXR to CEF.
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Some of the stronger forcing is still holding back across PA and NY. Although we may end up on the low end of some of the expectations for SNE as a whole, still can't rule out a few severe storms across the Hudson Valley and western/central Mass. late this afternoon.

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I think my hygrometer can't handle the humidity.. 

suspicious 78/77

power just spiked as I'm typing, but doubt it's weather related, just had a downpour, nothing at all severe

 

@Tornadomachine: like this

[img=http://i.imgur.com/k9iroK0.png]

results in

k9iroK0.png

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it's over.  Losing the heating of the day and radar shows a whole lot of nothing other than the line falling apart over my head here.

 

Maybe over is too strong but I'm certainly not holding my breath out this way.  We had maybe 10 minutes of sun the entire day.  Clouds ftw.

I'll be a little disappointed if we don't get some more rain though. Heard one rumble of thunder about an hour ago.

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Surprised the cell north of Manchester isn't severe warned. Pretty high velocities showing up

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  STRAFFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...
  NORTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
  SOUTHWESTERN YORK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MAINE...
 
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT...
 
* AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PAWTUCKAWAY STATE PARK...OR
  8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTHWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
 
* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  EPPING...NORTHWOOD...NEWMARKET...BARRINGTON...DURHAM...SOUTH
  ELIOT...DOVER...ROCHESTER...FARMINGTON...SOMERSWORTH...BERWICK AND
  SOUTH BERWICK.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

404 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...

  SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

 

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

    

* AT 404 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED

  OVER TYNGSBOROUGH...OR NEAR NASHUA...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25

  MPH.

 

* SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  NASHUA...DRACUT...HUDSON...PELHAM...TYNGSBOROUGH AND DUNSTABLE. 

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

TAKE COVER NOW! DO NOT WAIT TO SEE THE TORNADO. GO TO A BASEMENT OR

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM

WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE...A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...GET TO THE

CLOSEST SHELTER. PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

 

&&

 

LAT...LON 4280 7136 4278 7136 4277 7135 4276 7127

      4274 7125 4272 7125 4265 7146 4270 7149

      4283 7140

TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 227DEG 23KT 4270 7143 

$$

 

SIPPRELL

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Maybe over is too strong but I'm certainly not holding my breath out this way.  We had maybe 10 minutes of sun the entire day.  Clouds ftw.

I'll be a little disappointed if we don't get some more rain though. Heard one rumble of thunder about an hour ago.

Clouds hung on here too long as well.  that line hit a brick wall which I think the HRRR had modeled.

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