Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Remember there is some instability after dark, be surprised if whatever is left of cells to our sw near nyc or so don't make their way northeast as at least downpours Plenty of surface based, not much mixed layer. Good heavy rain tonight west of ORH, but I doubt there'll be many bangers. 5% outlook for ENE tomorrow, everyone is getting some love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Well we're getting some decent sun east of the river this afternoon..so hopefully that helps when the show gets here this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Quite a lot of meh so far north of NYC. Heavy rain, no SVR. Blech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The storms are going SVR in and around NYC..I'd think the watch goes up for the rest of SNE over the next 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Here comes the first train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Dear God..look at that cell right in Central NJ..That is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Here comes the first train Yeah, may get you, went too far E of here. So far only a few 10 minute showers here. 74/73. .10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Gonna be a nice aftn commute for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Dew just hit 70F all the way up here at MVL...pretty steamy air but no sunshine. 77/70 right now. Severe threat looks very low up this way. Good luck down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Latest HRRR fires another line of strong (potentially severe) storms across the Hudson Valley in a few hours, reaching W CT by 6 p.m. It is, however, banking that the current line/boundary goes poof. The area to watch may very well be just NW of where the pre-frontal boundary is now. Assuming they can destabilize enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Dew just hit 70F all the way up here at MVL...pretty steamy air but no sunshine. 77/70 right now. Severe threat looks very low up this way. Good luck down south. Yeah, just cloudy muggy, light showers. Not much downstream for C/NNE. I'm surprised how little there is for Western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Quite a lot of meh so far north of NYC. Heavy rain, no SVR. Blech.Dude its early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Storm blowing up right overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looks like a training flood threat more than much else. Found ourselves in a quasi Bermuda blue pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 First tor warning of the day... South of Baltimore XD. Actually pretty beefy HP supercell, strong RFD. Anyone know how to get radarscope screenshots up here on android? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The line heading ne into CT isn't going to vaporize lol. Heading into a ripe enviro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Gonna be a nice aftn commute for NYC. Hopefully so much rain falls there that the entire city implodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 OKX and ENX VAD are not really impressive for directional shear at the moment..it's all over eastern areas. You'll need the LLJ to back a bit and sharpen. Models did try to do that over the next few hours so we'll see. Hopefully the anvil canopy doesn't mess up convection up stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Love the Spark feature on the Weatherbug app Anyone know how lightning strikes are detected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 OKX and ENX VAD are not really impressive for directional shear at the moment..it's all over eastern areas. You'll need the LLJ to back a bit and sharpen. Models did try to do that over the next few hours so we'll see. Hopefully the anvil canopy doesn't mess up convection up stream.keep the llj here so we can maintain the storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Absolutely pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 OKX and ENX VAD are not really impressive for directional shear at the moment..it's all over eastern areas. You'll need the LLJ to back a bit and sharpen. Models did try to do that over the next few hours so we'll see. Hopefully the anvil canopy doesn't mess up convection up stream. I think anvil FTL The hi-res models didn't show that stuff over NYC going so nuts. I think that's going to cause some problem with the severe threat across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I think anvil FTL The hi-res models didn't show that stuff over NYC going so nuts. I think that's going to cause some problem with the severe threat across SNE. Earlier runs of the RPM and HRRR had it, but then sort of developed a line too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Banging in Pepperell. I think its the line to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Earlier runs of the RPM and HRRR had it, but then sort of developed a line too.Yeah, the HRRR had it, but was more optimistic with some discretes still gaining dominance across N CT and Mass. Really always thought it was a later game based on guidance though, with the NAM and HRRR going gangbusters closer to 22-00z. IF we had broken out more we'd be realizing some of those higher CAPE progs too, so now it's a messy mode with a marginal thermodynamic environment. Lapse rates were meh and LIs weren't where you'd like to see them for sig severe either. Other writing on the wall was the wind profile which never really had much backing. The higher res models were more keen on a SErly component across much of SNE instead of this messy S-SWrly. The HRRR wanted to maintain impressive sig tor values (over 1) and firm backing where there's just a bunch of junk right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Thunder right overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 0.3 mile strike. Prob closer than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Latest hrrr is... Weird... It displaced the line to the east by 30 miles or so, and kills the rest of the day. Initialization issues, or a bad sign? No watch yet from the SPC doesn't bode well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I think anvil FTL The hi-res models didn't show that stuff over NYC going so nuts. I think that's going to cause some problem with the severe threat across SNE. Agree. The stuff coming up from the city is going to hindered by its own anvil shadow and debris blow-off, with inflow of good air cut off by the stuff further out on LI. Looking like a lot of rain for S CT, and maybe not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 First tor warning of the day... South of Baltimore XD. Actually pretty beefy HP supercell, strong RFD. Anyone know how to get radarscope screenshots up here on android? Install Imgur Android then when you get to the share menu in radarscope, select Imgur, it will upload the image and tell you the URL for it I just did it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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