SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Line of discrete cells tickled east this run on the hrrr. Furthest cells reach NW Middlesex now. Looks discrete for maybe 2 hours, like 3 pm to 5 pm, then goes QLCS train mode. Can you get Thunderstorms with something like that or just heavy rain? based on the models, my area could be in the training section... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I haven't even started to split yet, but I've got a ton of stuff sized with a ton more to go. The trees came down last year, so they'll still be reasonably dry come burn season. Righteous. GC, ftl. Shower's passed, .09" Cooled off a bit. 73.7/71 Its all green what i am splitting, But most of it is oak and elm with some fir, Brother in law took down over 20 trees but they were all at the most around this size, Nothing extremely large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Probably a lot smaller then your pile, But i have another cord to do Wood.JPG Decent, and looks (and smells) better than the elm I finished thrashing with last Saturday. Wish those 3 trees had gone to the pulp mill instead of the firewood pile! The hrrr map looks to provide my area with another 0.1" thru midnight, so the garden still is living on the deluge of 7/4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Decent, and looks (and smells) better than the elm I finished thrashing with last Saturday. Wish those 3 trees had gone to the pulp mill instead of the firewood pile! The hrrr map looks to provide my area with another 0.1" thru midnight, so the garden still is living on the deluge of 7/4-5. Nice aroma to the oak, That was the majority, Occasional sun in and out here 78/72F, starting to heat up some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Can you get Thunderstorms with something like that or just heavy rain? based on the models, my area could be in the training section... Sorry for not explaining that! QLCS stands for a Quasi-Linear Convective System, which is effectively a fancy name for a squall line. It directly describes a line of thunderstorm cells, which are generally not precisely linear (hence quasi). MCS and derechoes are essentially super powered versions of a QLCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Watch is out for the same areas in SW Ct on sw that had one yesterday..Everyone else's on NE should come a bit later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah soon to have rain here too. Surprised not to have heard any rumbles with the batch that went to my west and hit bratt. Series of 5 minute showers here brightening atm. Looking north towards your area looks darker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Watch is out for the same areas in SW Ct on sw that had one yesterday..Everyone else's on NE should come a bit later SPC is really downplaying spinners... Very low probs on that watch, and even though they mention supercells, they only talk about wind and hail. To be honest, I wonder if we will actually get a watch up here. If so, my bet is against a TOR, what with the SPC leaning the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SPC is really downplaying spinners... Very low probs on that watch, and even though they mention supercells, they only talk about wind and hail. Hopefully Ryan can comment on what he sees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looks like a potential meso ESE of Watertown. Looks best from ALB, so its fairly elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 151751Z - 151945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL MAY OCCUR AS CELL COVERAGE INCREASES. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXISTS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE FROM 1500 J/KG IN THE NEW YORK CITY AREA TO JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG IN SRN VT AND SRN NH. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS IN AND CLOSE TO THE MCD AREA SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/15/2014 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 40637181 41217071 41616992 42277019 43277101 43507153 43387225 42847290 42017339 41187352 40637181 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The storms for most of SNE to watch are the ones heading twos NYC. Trajectory is heading for us..The first line should crush MPM that's over NW Ct now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Is that arrow pointing to Rev's fanny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Is that arrow pointing to Rev's fanny? That's where they believe the TOR will touch down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SPC is really downplaying spinners... Very low probs on that watch, and even though they mention supercells, they only talk about wind and hail. To be honest, I wonder if we will actually get a watch up here. If so, my bet is against a TOR, what with the SPC leaning the way it is. No tor watch still, but now probably severe. I give it an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Is that arrow pointing to Rev's fanny? That's what I was going to say...its right over his head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Hearing some good rumbles with those storms missing to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That's where they believe the TOR will touch down Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I want to see NYC subway floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 looks like things are lining up now to stay west of orh. nothing south, sw coming up evident on radar. Trajectory staying to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I want to see NYC subway floods. So, in other words, you want it to get a little Sandy down in NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun poking through at work in Glastonbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Have softball in Canton around 6:15. Gonna be close, but I'm thinking the storms will still be well west at that point? There doesn't seem to be much of an easterly component at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The storms for most of SNE to watch are the ones heading twos NYC. Trajectory is heading for us..The first line should crush MPM that's over NW Ct now exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Remember there is some instability after dark, be surprised if whatever is left of cells to our sw near nyc or so don't make their way northeast as at least downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 What a mess down in NYC. Mesos are evident in that cluster, but all I'd expect is heavy cats and dogs dumping out from the heavens, accompanied by a few flashes. Tropical airmasses suck big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Have softball in Canton around 6:15. Gonna be close, but I'm thinking the storms will still be well west at that point? There doesn't seem to be much of an easterly component at the moment. Unless you get one of those pocket storms, you'll likely be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I want to see NYC subway floods. Nothing would make me happier than to see the whole system get washed out. It's filthy and needs a good cleaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Nothing would make me happier than to see the whole system get washed out. It's filthy and needs a good cleaning. Homeless and all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 What a mess down in NYC. Mesos are evident in that cluster, but all I'd expect is heavy cats and dogs dumping out from the heavens, accompanied by a few flashes. Tropical airmasses suck big time. Would be interesting to see if that keeps the same trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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