IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Toss that HRRR run. There's biggies popping in S central Ct now.. Even one in far E Ct Not to rain on your parade but the NAM and GFS match the HRRR's thinking pretty well. Of course there will always be pockets of activity that gets missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 way more than one run, its been trending towards nam and other related products showing qpf max in the far west.I don't think one should be focusing on qpf unless you're looking for training and flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 No matter the trend, nowcast.. look at radar.. already incorrect really cells popping in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I think southeast New England gets blasted pretty good tomrrow. The 12z GFS was about 6 hours away from another NYC deluge. Another wave of low pressure develops near the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 You can have all the CAPE, but you need a mechanism to lift it which is why mesos are focused out west and into NNE. Other than renegade cells ahead of it....it's going to be closer to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 He is sitting in the A/C with a shawl on rocking back and forth brewing another pot of coffee worried about getting enough qpf to wet the ground LOL--no A/C in GC. Sun's out though, temp quickly shot to 76.2/73. Meanwhile, chimneys getting swept as I type overlooking the firewood awaiting to be split. I guess that's what they mean by 4-season living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I would focus on the trend, not verbatim stuff. That is, focus on activity and where it's showing minimal activity. It's never going to nail exact solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Raining at the Pit. Meh. 75.7/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Does not suck..Supercell composite http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/scp/scp.gif?1405441616763 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah soon to have rain here too. Surprised not to have heard any rumbles with the batch that went to my west and hit bratt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Thats a horrific hrrr total precip map, doubt it verifies. Hot, humid, unstable even in eastern portions of the interior. Even if we don't see severe I don't see how we don't end up with downpours.sun popped out and the quick downpour followed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Big downpour just formed overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 LOL--no A/C in GC. Sun's out though, temp quickly shot to 76.2/73. Meanwhile, chimneys getting swept as I type overlooking the firewood awaiting to be split. I guess that's what they mean by 4-season living. Probably a lot smaller then your pile, But i have another cord to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Does not suck http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/scp/scp.gif?1405441616763 Does not pop out, either. 4 would be of some interest, at least to me. 2's aren't exactly uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 pouring to beat the band here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Toss that HRRR run. There's biggies popping in S central Ct now.. Even one in far E Ctjust a rain shower, no thunder,typical pop up air mass quick downpour, I wouldn't bet against HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Big downpour just formed overheadEnjoy. Hope your house blows or floats away. ... And I mean that in the best possible weenie way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun's out here in the 'well. Just curious, is the bulk of our moisture likely to come tonight/Wednesday? We usually get shafted anyways by severe weather outbreaks, but it'd be nice to get some beneficial rain here for the lawns and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Already close to 1.0" here on the day so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Does not pop out, either. 4 would be of some interest, at least to me. 2's aren't exactly uncommon. Yeah we get them almost everyday in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Ended up with 1.1 yesterday and overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The latest HRRR is no different, the line makes it to about Hartford, then stalls and eventually rains itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 just a rain shower, no thunder,typical pop up air mass quick downpour, I wouldn't bet against HRRR Figuring many parts of Northern RI already have more rain then forecasted by HRRR, I think its a good bet that its a little off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 so safe to cut the grass tonight in EMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah we get them almost everyday in SNE Let me explain myself: greater than 50% of thunderstorm days in SNE have a supercell composite in the 2 range, it isn't uncommon. It isn't a suggestion of the end all outbreak, neither is a 4. I'd like to see higher numbers before I get really excited about this, though we can't rule that out for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Probably a lot smaller then your pile, But i have another cord to do Wood.JPG I haven't even started to split yet, but I've got a ton of stuff sized with a ton more to go. The trees came down last year, so they'll still be reasonably dry come burn season. Already close to 1.0" here on the day so far Righteous. The latest HRRR is no different, the line makes it to about Hartford, then stalls and eventually rains itself out. hrrr_t_precip_nyc_14.png GC, ftl. Shower's passed, .09" Cooled off a bit. 73.7/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 so safe to cut the grass tonight in EMA? Define safe. Can't rule out isld thunder, but as long as you look to the sky occasionally, you shouldn't have any issues that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Line of discrete cells tickled east this run on the hrrr. Furthest cells reach NW Middlesex now. Looks discrete for maybe 2 hours, like 3 pm to 5 pm, then goes QLCS train mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Raining pretty good in Bristol right now. nice little cell overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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