HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Joe D comparing setup to 6/1/11 Saying it is not similar https://twitter.com/joedawg42/status/489064834072199169 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 In all likelihood, those cells in CMA are gonna be the big ones. Assuming this verifies. 5 PM there, I believe. Suckers start training right along that area afterwards, could see some serious FF and QPF maxes today. My bet is 4 in somewhere from N ORH to NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I wonder if they just go straight to TOR watch in the next hour or 2 for most of the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Still full overcast in the Pioneer Valley. That's not really going to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I wonder if they just go straight to TOR watch in the next hour or 2 for most of the region? What lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yep, completely different setup. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yep, completely different setup. Not even close. Which set up is better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Joe D comparing setup to 6/1/11 Saying it is not similar https://twitter.com/joedawg42/status/489064834072199169 NW flow, high CAPE/high shear vs. SW flow, low CAPE/moderate shear/high dews. Big difference. One of the best matches that has been consistently showing up for several days now is 6/30/08, albeit slightly further west. (No tornadoes, but a string of damaging wind/hail reports across NW CT to central Mass. and S NH. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/SPC/2008/2008063012_024_ptsvr.png Overall top analogs do have a few tors here and there. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/F024/EC_024/SVRtornnam212F024.png For the record, I do expect a few brief spinups today. I won't go 12-24 like Kev, but I did say 1-3 on Twitter earlier, including the area from northern NJ up into E NY/W MA as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Which set up is better? That one. By far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 In all likelihood, those cells in CMA are gonna be the big ones. Assuming this verifies. 5 PM there, I believe. Suckers start training right along that area afterwards, could see some serious FF and QPF maxes today. My bet is 4 in somewhere from N ORH to NJ. Wide right for GC, ftl. 73.2/71, pretty much clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wide right for GC, ftl.lol...don't ever change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Low-level wind fields are mixed, kind of meh with most stations reporting S to SW winds. There is some slightly better backing in the valleys of CT from HVN up to BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 lol...don't ever change In about 5 hours I expect him to have another three trees hit by lightning, mud slides, and possibly his barn blown over. Just like in winter when he talks about being on the outside and looking in...only to have a deformation band drop 16" in 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That one. By far. That one was one of the most obvious we get aorund here. That was one of the few severe setups we were watching model runs for 36/24 hours in advance...even the off-hour runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 In about 5 hours I expect him to have another three trees hit by lightning, mud slides, and possibly his barn blown over. Just like in winter when he talks about being on the outside and looking in...only to have a deformation band drop 16" in 6 hrs. He is sitting in the A/C with a shawl on rocking back and forth brewing another pot of coffee worried about getting enough qpf to wet the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 In about 5 hours I expect him to have another three trees hit by lightning, mud slides, and possibly his barn blown over. Just like in winter when he talks about being on the outside and looking in...only to have a deformation band drop 16" in 6 hrs.It just gets old. The dude has gotten ripped this summer compared to everyone else. Hopefully he gets another one today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 In about 5 hours I expect him to have another three trees hit by lightning, mud slides, and possibly his barn blown over. Just like in winter when he talks about being on the outside and looking in...only to have a deformation band drop 16" in 6 hrs. To be fair the winter griping is well founded. We smoke our share of cirrus out here. Summer severe season is the time for NW MA to be a jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Hrrr has sort of trended towards massive doses of meh today for eastern portions. Not what I'd like to see but... we'll see what happens. It doesn't have much eastward progress with the rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 To be fair the winter griping is well founded. We smoke our share of cirrus out here. Summer severe season is the time for NW MA to be a jackpot zone. Eh, that's anecdotal..but I'm not getting into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Hrrr has sort of trended towards massive doses of meh today for eastern portions. Not what I'd like to see but... we'll see what happens. That's what I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Thats a horrific hrrr total precip map, doubt it verifies. Hot, humid, unstable even in eastern portions of the interior. Even if we don't see severe I don't see how we don't end up with downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Wind probs (30%) extended a bit further northeast into western Mass. now with the 1630z SPC update. No change to the tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Thats a horrific hrrr total precip map, doubt it verifies. Hot, humid, unstable even in eastern portions of the interior. Even if we don't see severe I don't see how we don't end up with downpours. Basically the models today are slowing down the front so much that the convection just trains over the same areas, pretty much right up the DC to NYC corridor and then into SW New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Basically the models today are slowing down the front so much that the convection just trains over the same areas, pretty much right up the DC to NYC corridor and then into SW New England. Yeah...the HRRR isn't the only model showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Stuff is already trying to pop in central ORH County, so not sure I buy the sharp cut line the HRRR shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SPC is heavily favoring QLCS storm mode in their outlook disco. That explains the increase in the 30% wind zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Toss that HRRR run. There's biggies popping in S central Ct now.. Even one in far E Ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Toss that HRRR run. There's biggies popping in S central Ct now.. Even one in far E Ctway more than one run, its been trending towards nam and other related products showing qpf max in the far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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