Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This is awesome https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/489042804853583873 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 How does it look for SNH? Any chance we get good storms here vs. just rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Was the Springfield, MA cell tornado warned when it dropped the EF2 a few years back? That one was actually warned for just after the tornado dropped, for different reasons. I've heard that, due to the significant (greater than 5) number of tornado warnings on supercells that didn't produce tornadoes, Taunton was getting nervous about dropping any more without substantial evidence towards the storm. They've changed their policy now, in review, to always warn storms that look tornadic. Like I said, lots of stress and variables for the forecasters to deal with in events like that, it can add up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 How does it look for SNH? Any chance we get good storms here vs. just rain? SNH is under the gun too IMO. Right there with western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 How does it look for SNH? Any chance we get good storms here vs. just rain? Looks very good indeed. Wherever you see breaks in the cloud west of ME and south of Burlington in the sat picture, you could see strong storms (that's based off of shear+instability, results may vary ). Speaking of which, here is the CNE focus view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 How does it look for SNH? Any chance we get good storms here vs. just rain?So you're asking how many Tors for yby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Prob 90/10 clouds to clear here 76F/73 Drippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Those breaks of sun are gonna get things popping after noon in eastern NY. This is what I wanted to see for a good threat of wind damage and weak tornadoes. Might just have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SE Mass fail? https://twitter.com/toddwbz/status/489055388046618626 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That one was actually warned for just after the tornado dropped, for different reasons. I've heard that, due to the significant (greater than 5) number of tornado warnings on supercells that didn't produce tornadoes, Taunton was getting nervous about dropping any more without substantial evidence towards the storm. They've changed their policy now, in review, to always warn storms that look tornadic. Like I said, lots of stress and variables for the forecasters to deal with in events like that, it can add up fast. I'd rather issue ten warnings that didn't verify where nobody was killed then not warn one storm that killed someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SE Mass fail? https://twitter.com/toddwbz/status/489055388046618626 It could be 95 there, and there would not be storms. All forcing is out west. That moves east tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SE Mass fail? https://twitter.com/toddwbz/status/489055388046618626 You mean death valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 So you're asking how many Tors for yby? Believe me, I would love to see some tornadoes rip through my area...but it's unlucky. I will just take some strong/severe storms. Thanks for all the responses to my questions everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Those breaks of sun are gonna get things popping after noon in eastern NY. This is what I wanted to see for a good threat of wind damage and weak tornadoes. Might just have it.yep shouldn't take much surface heating for things to start popping upstream with very little CIN. pleasantly surprised with the vis sat look this morning thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That one was actually warned for just after the tornado dropped, for different reasons. I've heard that, due to the significant (greater than 5) number of tornado warnings on supercells that didn't produce tornadoes, Taunton was getting nervous about dropping any more without substantial evidence towards the storm. They've changed their policy now, in review, to always warn storms that look tornadic. Like I said, lots of stress and variables for the forecasters to deal with in events like that, it can add up fast. I don't think this is true. The explanations are on this board, sorry I don't have time to go into it right now, but it was a radar issue not a warning policy issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Already over 1k sbcape in areas. Mlcape on increase too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 This is awesome https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/489042804853583873 Heading west to chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 On the bus going back to WeHa in Hartford and going through a sprinkle. In my way to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 SE Mass fail? https://twitter.com/toddwbz/status/489055388046618626 Par for the meh course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I don't think this is true. The explanations are on this board, sorry I don't have time to go into it right now, but it was a radar issue not a warning policy issue. You posted this 2 years ago in the Massachusetts Tornado: 1 year later thread, second page, about halfway down. I stand corrected, thanks for the info. Its true though, one or two missed scans make a huge difference. That's why I think stuff like phased array is what we should be using right now. They have some neat projects going on with that stuff too, like cylindrical radars that update in less than a minute. No moving parts. "The reason for the late warning was that the KBOX radar was range-folded in the region of the tornado. Once they changed the prf the warning went up immediately. The KENX radar is always better in this area, but I can't necessarily call it a 'mistake' to not have had it queued up because the bandwidth sucks in the Taunton office, which is NOT their fault. I am making it a mission to try to improve that situation. " --Radarman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm hoping the next 36 hours can finally end the t-storm drought around here. Doesn't have to even verify as severe. Just give me something. Even an overnite light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 You mean death valley?Sometimes they get nailed. But today looks like a late start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Why can't I have any breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm hoping the next 36 hours can finally end the t-storm drought around here. Doesn't have to even verify as severe. Just give me something. Even an overnite light show I'd be more interested in tomorrow, if I were you. might get some bangers real late, but might devolve before then. I'm not buying this overnight maintenance idea, doesn't seem really good for convection, but fine for heavy heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Scorching. Oppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'd be more interested in tomorrow, if I were you. might get some bangers real late, but might devolve before then. I'm not buying this overnight maintenance idea, doesn't seem really good for convection, but fine for heavy heavy rain. And I bet you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Why can't I have any breaks in the clouds. lots of breaks here. They're coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 You posted this 2 years ago in the Massachusetts Tornado: 1 year later thread, second page, about halfway down. I stand corrected, thanks for the info. Its true though, one or two missed scans make a huge difference. That's why I think stuff like phased array is what we should be using right now. They have some neat projects going on with that stuff too, like cylindrical radars that update in less than a minute. No moving parts. "The reason for the late warning was that the KBOX radar was range-folded in the region of the tornado. Once they changed the prf the warning went up immediately. The KENX radar is always better in this area, but I can't necessarily call it a 'mistake' to not have had it queued up because the bandwidth sucks in the Taunton office, which is NOT their fault. I am making it a mission to try to improve that situation. " --Radarman Yeah, but even better than my words, I'm pretty sure it came straight from the horse's mouth so to speak in the days that followed the storm. Much like a great jump shooter who's missed a few recently, the person on the radar desk can't be afraid to hoist up the next warning if they see fit. And I'm sure they aren't. That said there is definitely the tendency to err on the side of warning the higher the population density. Granted you are more likely to get verification, but that aside I think you can make a pretty reasonable case to do things this way regardless, just on a risk management basis. At any rate, a discussion for another day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Why can't I have any breaks in the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Scorching. Oppressive. Sun is out here too, hopefully storms don't completely fall apart as they charge east later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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