Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Was the Springfield, MA cell tornado warned when it dropped the EF2 a few years back?

That one was actually warned for just after the tornado dropped, for different reasons.  I've heard that, due to the significant (greater than 5) number of tornado warnings on supercells that didn't produce tornadoes, Taunton was getting nervous about dropping any more without substantial evidence towards the storm.  They've changed their policy now, in review, to always warn storms that look tornadic.  Like I said, lots of stress and variables for the forecasters to deal with in events like that, it can add up fast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How does it look for SNH?  Any chance we get good storms here vs. just rain?

Looks very good indeed.  Wherever you see breaks in the cloud west of ME and south of Burlington in the sat picture, you could see strong storms (that's based off of shear+instability, results may vary :whistle: ).  Speaking of which, here is the CNE focus view.

 

New_England.vis.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That one was actually warned for just after the tornado dropped, for different reasons.  I've heard that, due to the significant (greater than 5) number of tornado warnings on supercells that didn't produce tornadoes, Taunton was getting nervous about dropping any more without substantial evidence towards the storm.  They've changed their policy now, in review, to always warn storms that look tornadic.  Like I said, lots of stress and variables for the forecasters to deal with in events like that, it can add up fast. 

I'd rather issue ten warnings that didn't verify where nobody was killed then not warn one storm that killed someone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Those breaks of sun are gonna get things popping after noon in eastern NY. This is what I wanted to see for a good threat of wind damage and weak tornadoes. Might just have it.

yep shouldn't take much surface heating for things to start popping upstream with very little CIN.

pleasantly surprised with the vis sat look this morning thats for sure

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That one was actually warned for just after the tornado dropped, for different reasons.  I've heard that, due to the significant (greater than 5) number of tornado warnings on supercells that didn't produce tornadoes, Taunton was getting nervous about dropping any more without substantial evidence towards the storm.  They've changed their policy now, in review, to always warn storms that look tornadic.  Like I said, lots of stress and variables for the forecasters to deal with in events like that, it can add up fast. 

 

I don't think this is true.  The explanations are on this board, sorry I don't have time to go into it right now, but it was a radar issue not a warning policy issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think this is true.  The explanations are on this board, sorry I don't have time to go into it right now, but it was a radar issue not a warning policy issue.

 

You posted this 2 years ago in the Massachusetts Tornado: 1 year later thread, second page, about halfway down.  I stand corrected, thanks for the info.  Its true though, one or two missed scans make a huge difference.  That's why I think stuff like phased array is what we should be using right now.  They have some neat projects going on with that stuff too, like cylindrical radars that update in less than a minute.  No moving parts.

 

 

"The reason for the late warning was that the KBOX radar was range-folded in the region of the tornado. Once they changed the prf the warning went up immediately.

The KENX radar is always better in this area, but I can't necessarily call it a 'mistake' to not have had it queued up because the bandwidth sucks in the Taunton office, which is NOT their fault. I am making it a mission to try to improve that situation. "

--Radarman

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm hoping the next 36 hours can finally end the t-storm drought around here. Doesn't have to even verify as severe. Just give me something. Even an overnite light show

I'd be more interested in tomorrow, if I were you.  might get some bangers real late, but might devolve before then.  I'm not buying this overnight maintenance idea, doesn't seem really good for convection, but fine for heavy heavy rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You posted this 2 years ago in the Massachusetts Tornado: 1 year later thread, second page, about halfway down.  I stand corrected, thanks for the info.  Its true though, one or two missed scans make a huge difference.  That's why I think stuff like phased array is what we should be using right now.  They have some neat projects going on with that stuff too, like cylindrical radars that update in less than a minute.  No moving parts.

 

 

"The reason for the late warning was that the KBOX radar was range-folded in the region of the tornado. Once they changed the prf the warning went up immediately.

The KENX radar is always better in this area, but I can't necessarily call it a 'mistake' to not have had it queued up because the bandwidth sucks in the Taunton office, which is NOT their fault. I am making it a mission to try to improve that situation. "

--Radarman

 

Yeah, but even better than my words, I'm pretty sure it came straight from the horse's mouth so to speak in the days that followed the storm.  Much like a great jump shooter who's missed a few recently, the person on the radar desk can't be afraid to hoist up the next warning if they see fit.  And I'm sure they aren't.  

 

That said there is definitely the tendency to err on the side of warning the higher the population density.  Granted you are more likely to get verification, but that aside I think you can make a pretty reasonable case to do things this way regardless, just on a risk management basis.

 

At any rate, a discussion for another day....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...