IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 People around my neck of the woods generally are concerned with precipitation, and will definitely hammer on a forecaster for getting that wrong. However, most of the general public would not know if a thunderstorm verified severe if they were standing in the middle of an open field naked during it. Only weather weenies care about severe verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Only weather weenies care about severe verification. And the NWS. Kinda matters for social investigations too. That sorta stuff. In fact, there is a possibility that warnings might be scaled for different regions (low reqts here, more severe reqts out in the Midwest, etc.). You can't improve your system without doing an analysis of its effectiveness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Do that and if you base a forecast or expectation on TORCON you have a lot to learn Lol, maybe back when I was 5... I feel like TWC has been hurting on the good forecasting side in recent years. Even still, I'd rather work with the raw data and learn how to use it than to do whatever someone tells me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 And the NWS. Kinda matters for social investigations too. That sorta stuff. In fact, there is a possibility that warnings might be scaled for different regions (low reqts here, more severe reqts out in the Midwest, etc.). You can't improve your system without doing an analysis of its effectiveness. Okay obvously the ones giving out the warnings care about verification scores. I do believe that they tend to warn more frequently in highly populated areas. Often you can look at cells over the plains and think wow if that was here it would probably be the most severe storm we've ever had, and it won't even be warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 No sun here yet today. 73/72. Swampy. This area looks decent for T-storm activity later but maybe a little too far N. That's my fear as well. 70.2/70 overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Only weather weenies care about severe verification. Not true at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 If you're in western mass I'm not sure what you're worried about. Looks like ground zero litchfield berks orh cnty into snh and s vt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Okay obvously the ones giving out the warnings care about verification scores. I do believe that they tend to warn more frequently in highly populated areas. Often you can look at cells over the plains and think wow if that was here it would probably be the most severe storm we've ever had, and it won't even be warned. That is actually true, and is addressed in the warning decision training branch's courses. You worry what would happen if you didn't warn a marginal storm that suddenly drops a tornado down in the middle of Boston, for example, but that same storm in, say, the OK panhandle would only gain a little bit of extra attention from forecasters. In fact, they do have to teach forecasters not to focus on one zone! All you NWS guys here, you do a stressful, sometimes thankless job, but man, we'd really be in a rut without you, so thank you guys for what you do! I'm not a weenie... Mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That's my fear as well. 70.2/70 overcast. Tell me, are you entering that info as you swim through the air? Feels like the gulf of mexico outside today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not true at all Who in the general public cares if the winds maxed out at 50 MPH and the severe didn't verify? You're also forgetting that 99% of the general public has no idea what the severe criteria is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 The one worry I have is generating enough MLcape to generate robust enough updrafts to really utilize the shear. With poor Mlvl lapse rates it's hard to get good MLcape but the low 70's dews will compensate for that so we just need strong enough sfc heating. Would like to see values around 1000-1200 J/KG, however, 750 J/KG should sufficice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Who in the general public cares if the winds maxed out at 50 MPH and the severe didn't verify? You're also forgetting that 99% of the general public has no idea what the severe criteria is. People who own car dealerships Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That is actually true, and is addressed in the warning decision training branch's courses. You worry what would happen if you didn't warn a marginal storm that suddenly drops a tornado down in the middle of Boston, for example, but that same storm in, say, the OK panhandle would only gain a little bit of extra attention from forecasters. In fact, they do have to teach forecasters not to focus on one zone! All you NWS guys here, you do a stressful, sometimes thankless job, but man, we'd really be in a rut without you, so thank you guys for what you do! I'm not a weenie... Mostly. Was the Springfield, MA cell tornado warned when it dropped the EF2 a few years back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The one worry I have is generating enough MLcape to generate robust enough updrafts to really utilize the shear. With poor Mlvl lapse rates it's hard to get good MLcape but the low 70's dews will compensate for that so we just need strong enough sfc heating. Would like to see values around 1000-1200 J/KG, however, 750 J/KG should sufficice OKX 12z sounding had a good amount of MUCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 People who own car dealerships I can see if you owned a dealership in say Oklahoma and you were concerned about damaging hail. Then again you would probably have some plan in place since large hail in that area is common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Who in the general public cares if the winds maxed out at 50 MPH and the severe didn't verify? You're also forgetting that 99% of the general public has no idea what the severe criteria is. People seem to be affected a great deal more by lack of verification than actual verification. If they didn't see it, it didn't happen. That's why storm based warnings were a masterstroke on the NWS' part. SPC has a 2% for area for the Hudson valley to ORH and south to NYC, then 30% wind south of that. Seems to me that suggests we might be a bit more, shall I say discreet, with our thunderstorms. Remember, Springfield happened on a 5% day, so does the tor fcst really matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 OKX 12z sounding had a good amount of MUCAPE Thanks for posting that...completely forgot to look at the soundings! That's actually a pretty impressive sounding and lapse rates are actually quite decent. Forecast sfc capes pretty high too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 I can see if you owned a dealership in say Oklahoma and you were concerned about damaging hail. Then again you would probably have some plan in place since large hail in that area is common. Definitely some sort of insurance coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Some very strong wording was just put out down here SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151530-NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014...SWATHS OF HIGH IMPACT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH FLOODINGEXPECTED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING...THE PRIMARY LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN NEAR90 DEGREE HEAT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM ANDTHEN MOVE INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM.THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIALFOR MORE EXTENSIVE AND GREATER DAMAGE.RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN ONE HOUR WOULD PROMOTE POCKETS OFRENEWED FLASH FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIALFOR MORE EXTENSIVE SMALL STREAM FLOODING THAN WHAT OCCURREDYESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY ROLL THROUGH AN AREAFOR 2 HOURS AND PRODUCE 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.THOSE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THEINTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO TRENTON...PHILADELPHIAAND WILMINGTON INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUSTHUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL FORCE TRAVEL DELAYS INSOME AREAS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE ROAD CLOSURES.POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE.THE RISK FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM.HAVE YOUR SAFETY PLAN IN MIND WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Highest capes on hrrr have been stamford northeast to kev through orh into ne ma.. for a couple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Highest capes on hrrr have been stamford northeast to kev through orh into ne ma.. for a couple runs now. I'm mobile so hard to look but could you see what it shows for MLcape values please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Some very strong wording was just put out down here SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-151530- NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX- WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE- BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON... CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON... WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE... NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING... ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK... OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE... POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE... MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 930 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2014 ...SWATHS OF HIGH IMPACT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING... THE PRIMARY LINES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN NEAR 90 DEGREE HEAT OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM AND THEN MOVE INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM AND 8 PM. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE AND GREATER DAMAGE. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITHIN ONE HOUR WOULD PROMOTE POCKETS OF RENEWED FLASH FLOODING IN URBANIZED AREAS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE EXTENSIVE SMALL STREAM FLOODING THAN WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY ROLL THROUGH AN AREA FOR 2 HOURS AND PRODUCE 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS. THOSE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW BRUNSWICK TO TRENTON...PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON INTO NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL FORCE TRAVEL DELAYS IN SOME AREAS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE ROAD CLOSURES. POWER OUTAGES CAUSED BY LIGHTNING AND TREE DAMAGE COULD BE EXTENSIVE. THE RISK FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM. HAVE YOUR SAFETY PLAN IN MIND WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. Sounds like they expect a derecho/major ff event. Turn around don't drown didn't turn up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Rain will be the big thing in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm mobile so hard to look but could you see what it shows for MLcape values please? it looks to be well over the values you mentioned we needed in the same areas as the sbcape I mentioned before. Can't look too closely either I'm mobile too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 it looks to be well over the values you mentioned we needed in the same areas as the sbcape I mentioned before. Can't look too closely either I'm mobile too Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Hires looks like a substantial flash flood threat in the berks to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Heading threw nj now stopping in Maryland for the day hoping for something good down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Still in clouds with a few breaks here at home. No coincidence that low clouds are hanging tough where LLJ is strongest. I have 78 with low clouds. Probably the most oppressive dews in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 decent amount of breaks in the low clouds / stratus from earlier, especially w/c/ne ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Absolutely sultry here in Cambridge at harvard. Dripping sweat. Sun is gettint majority of air time versus clouds this past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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