CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 What is digital accumulation array? New precip estimate based off dual pol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 New precip estimate based off dual pol.thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 00z NAM develops a healthy looking line of storms by mid afternoon back across PA and central NY. A few discrete cells flare up by 5-6 p.m. across far western New England and also NH/ME. It looks like a late start, but that *could* capitalize on bonus heating. Although the best forcing appears to remain west of SNE, the NAM finally ramps up the deep layer shear toward 00z, with an area of >40kts bulk shear reaching NW CT/W Mass. Without significant helicity and the front further west, the supercell potential will heavily rely on getting those greater shear values in. We'll have to watch obs/trends and the HRRR to see how backed the low levels winds are too. This may end up being another Capital district region (Albany into far western Mass.) special with climo and forecasts favoring backed surface winds up the valley. That combined with the slower timing could result in some good bangers up that way and isolated spinners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 When dealing with convection here and the threat for severe you have to be extremely patient and very understanding. When it came to a day like today we had ingredients in place to produce severe, however, they all just didn't come together and we lacked the sufficient instability we needed. While we talked over the past few days about the potential today sometimes I think some get a little carried away with the difference between "potential" and "what is going to happen". When it comes to convection, especially this part of the country you always have to be discussing and talking knowing that it's all potential...it's all dependent on A, B, C, etc and more times than none it all becomes a nowcasting event (even in the Plains it comes down to nowcasting at times...especially those setups where storm mode is a bit unclear until activity develops). Setups like today come with worlds of potential but everything has to fall in place and that's why it's not a good bet to just throw in the towel or give up b/c you just don't know. We could have the same setup next Monday and next week could produce. Absolutely Wiz and others...together in time and place matters...many "weak" elements coming together can lead to "BIG" events ! Lol thanks, never seen that before. Gonna have to investigate. Looks like I'm going west tomorrow, aiming for that WY bullseye there. Or maybe just western mass. Also, TWC has a torcon of less than two tomorrow. Hang up your hats, show's over. For sure. Do that and if you base a forecast or expectation on TORCON you have a lot to learn 99% of us didn't get carried away, because we know that "potential" around here is always low. The same isn't true of snowstorms. That's why most people here prefer them, or for the general public, pay attention to them. There isn't anything more to it than that. Not completely true..IMO ANY WEATHER EVENT/ELEMENT/HAPPENNING ALL depend on how atmospheric elements/parameters come together in both time and place...one thing out of phase or not as BIG as forecast your screwed either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not saying I put a lot of stock into the GFS for short-range convection forecasting, but a host of mixed signals. Wiz will be delighted to see >2,000 J/kg SBCAPE along and NW of I-84 with some good overlap with stronger shear. However, low-level winds are not backed much at all. Some soundings even show a bit of a veer-back-veer with SWrly LL winds. Take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Based upon this thread, it seems prudent to prepare for certain death and/or some rain. Still wish I lived in NW CT or Western Mass... have a feeling we might be a bit too far east once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Both the 4 km NMM and ARW look fairly impressive for western areas tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Both the 4 km NMM and ARW look fairly impressive for western areas tomorrow.HRRR as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Had a commitment downtown at 6pm last night. Walked out of the T at Hynes and got drenched in the deluge. Straight calm winded pouring rain and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Hires says interior sne is in the game still this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Might shoot nw on rt 2 after work. Might as well, the alewife area is a stone's throw away from my works warehouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Still looks like eastern NY and western areas to perhaps ORH are under the gun this aftn. HIRES models have quite the low level shear so we'll see. Edit: NNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Still looks like eastern NY and western areas to perhaps ORH are under the gun this aftn. HIRES models have quite the low level shear so we'll see. I won't hold my breath until things hit AQW. Gross morning. 68.4/68 with sun trying to break through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Still looks like eastern NY and western areas to perhaps ORH are under the gun this aftn. HIRES models have quite the low level shear so we'll see. Edit: NNE too. Any chance you think activity could hold off until after 5:30 PM here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Any chance you think activity could hold off until after 5:30 PM here? Some models bring in an earlier show there which is possible. It will depend on how things initiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Anyone nw of se ma wouldn't be complaining with the 9z hrrr. Interioe sne looks great today. Multiple segments/lines lifting northeast. Also, later in day as night begins to fall a widespread line rolling east probably maintained well into the area with elevated instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 is that line moving SE from west NY suppose to impact the tri state area later on or suppose to weaken? regardless looks like a better SVR day for NJ up into your north country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 HRRR looks impressive to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Scooter and Ryan are impressed. Take note folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Anyone nw of se ma wouldn't be complaining with the 9z hrrr. Interioe sne looks great today. Multiple segments/lines lifting northeast. Also, later in day as night begins to fall a widespread line rolling east probably maintained well into the area with elevated instability.I am always skeptical east of a Danbury to Springfield corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Already breaking out of the clouds here.. oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 HRRR looks impressive to me.highest cape and instability interior sne. Orh looks like a good spot. N orh county esp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 highest cape and instability interior sne. Orh looks like a good spot. N orh county esp.Hubb blown into the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Been a while since there was anything decent here. 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Under the radar rain shower in Columbia and Hebron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Going to probably see the storms and downpours lift north but in any that intensify their heading will probably have a more easterly component to it as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Sun trying to poke through in southington CT....come on baby....steam bath outside....man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 No sun here yet today. 73/72. Swampy. This area looks decent for T-storm activity later but maybe a little too far N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Not completely true..IMO ANY WEATHER EVENT/ELEMENT/HAPPENNING ALL depend on how atmospheric elements/parameters come together in both time and place...one thing out of phase or not as BIG as forecast your screwed either way People around my neck of the woods generally are concerned with precipitation, and will definitely hammer on a forecaster for getting that wrong. However, most of the general public would not know if a thunderstorm verified severe if they were standing in the middle of an open field naked during it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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