CT Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Good to know...and would make sense being a composite of more meso-scale models. Synoptically, if you remember, they had a very rough winter. Yeah they were total and absolute garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Then they are useless, no? I actually like them during severe... I find them pretty useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I actually like them during severe... I find them pretty useful.Joking, but severe gets much less ink in these parts. Mainly because of days like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 When dealing with convection here and the threat for severe you have to be extremely patient and very understanding. When it came to a day like today we had ingredients in place to produce severe, however, they all just didn't come together and we lacked the sufficient instability we needed. While we talked over the past few days about the potential today sometimes I think some get a little carried away with the difference between "potential" and "what is going to happen". When it comes to convection, especially this part of the country you always have to be discussing and talking knowing that it's all potential...it's all dependent on A, B, C, etc and more times than none it all becomes a nowcasting event (even in the Plains it comes down to nowcasting at times...especially those setups where storm mode is a bit unclear until activity develops). Setups like today come with worlds of potential but everything has to fall in place and that's why it's not a good bet to just throw in the towel or give up b/c you just don't know. We could have the same setup next Monday and next week could produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm not really sure what the scale system means...all I know is the brighter the colors the better lol Lol thanks, never seen that before. Gonna have to investigate. Looks like I'm going west tomorrow, aiming for that WY bullseye there. Or maybe just western mass. Also, TWC has a torcon of less than two tomorrow. Hang up your hats, show's over. For sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Lol thanks, never seen that before. Gonna have to investigate. Looks like I'm going west tomorrow, aiming for that WY bullseye there. Or maybe just western mass. Also, TWC has a torcon of less than two tomorrow. Hang up your hats, show's over. For sure. I think the TOR threat is still there...just a matter of mesoscale factors and what direction sfc winds decide to blow. With 40-45 knots of vertical shear if you place that over 1500 J/KG of MLcape you're getting rotating updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 When dealing with convection here and the threat for severe you have to be extremely patient and very understanding. When it came to a day like today we had ingredients in place to produce severe, however, they all just didn't come together and we lacked the sufficient instability we needed. While we talked over the past few days about the potential today sometimes I think some get a little carried away with the difference between "potential" and "what is going to happen". When it comes to convection, especially this part of the country you always have to be discussing and talking knowing that it's all potential...it's all dependent on A, B, C, etc and more times than none it all becomes a nowcasting event (even in the Plains it comes down to nowcasting at times...especially those setups where storm mode is a bit unclear until activity develops). Setups like today come with worlds of potential but everything has to fall in place and that's why it's not a good bet to just throw in the towel or give up b/c you just don't know. We could have the same setup next Monday and next week could produce. 99% of us didn't get carried away, because we know that "potential" around here is always low.The same isn't true of snowstorms. That's why most people here prefer them, or for the general public, pay attention to them. There isn't anything more to it than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 As long as people remain level headed about tomorrow then it's all good. I get the feeling some are hoping to see numerous tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 NAM still continues to look rather interesting for eastern NY and western SNE. A little displaced from strongest LLJ which is east, but good enough I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 NAM still continues to look rather interesting for eastern NY and western SNE. A little displaced from strongest LLJ which is east, but good enough I think. It actually even develops an area of >1000 J/KG of MLcape across SE CT...so suggesting that possibility exists as well. In fact, P&C sounding I did had 1258 J/KG of MLcape...that would be plenty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Both NAM and RPM have quite the line moving east with backed winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 It actually even develops an area of >1000 J/KG of MLcape across SE CT...so suggesting that possibility exists as well. In fact, P&C sounding I did had 1258 J/KG of MLcape...that would be plenty Well in theory you want some heating preceding the line, so that might work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 How's this for interesting...NAM boosts instability between 21z and 0z...core of the LLJ slides east a bit but we could see potential exist until like 10 PM-12 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 NAM still continues to look rather interesting for eastern NY and western SNE. A little displaced from strongest LLJ which is east, but good enough I think. Yeah a bit more "displacement" this run but still looks good for W SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Well in theory you want some heating preceding the line, so that might work. Yeah that's what is going to have to be ironed out tomorrow. I'm actually shocked though the NAM develops this axis across SE CT and some points east...you would think these areas might have higher likelihood of clouds. Typically the NAM will paint the HV to CT border area for the higher values Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah a bit more "displacement" this run but still looks good for W SNE. Yeah I don't think it's a big deal. A little stronger mid level winds too. RPM looked real good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Looks like just north of here does well or has the potential to do well tomorrow. Hopefully the best action comes a little about so I can get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I think the TOR threat is still there...just a matter of mesoscale factors and what direction sfc winds decide to blow. With 40-45 knots of vertical shear if you place that over 1500 J/KG of MLcape you're getting rotating updrafts. Lol I know, just mocking twc. They don't even have us in the red zone for thunderstorms tomorrow. They might be in for a surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Yeah I don't think it's a big deal. A little stronger mid level winds too. RPM looked real good. NAM begins to increase MLJ too right around 21z or so just off to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 How's this for interesting...NAM boosts instability between 21z and 0z...core of the LLJ slides east a bit but we could see potential exist until like 10 PM-12 AM It's so fooking humid...CAPE right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 It's so fooking humid...CAPE right to the coast. with dews up in the 71-73F range (perhaps even higher) won't take much of a temp jump for Capes to skyrocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 NAM begins to increase MLJ too right around 21z or so just off to our west Ramps everything up in the evening. Good enough to help support activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Ramps everything up in the evening. Good enough to help support activity. That ULJ streak of 110+ knots also continues to slowly push east tonight so at least western half of the region should be much closer to this that will provide some vigorous ascent. Also looking at another piece of energy which pushes north right over SNE around 6z...should help to keep sparking activity well into the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Oh well time for bed...can't wait to see how things look in the AM. Sort of bummed I decided to register for classes tomorrow and half to work an extra hour but w/e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'm not really sure what the scale system means...all I know is the brighter the colors the better lol That looks way too far north up here. I'm not excited north of SVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Based upon this thread, it seems prudent to prepare for certain death and/or some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Based upon this thread, it seems prudent to prepare for certain death and/or some rain. Hosta leaves spinning round and round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Hail sig LIS south of HVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 What is digital accumulation array? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 The 0z NAM precip/reflectivity on weatherbell looks horribly off tonight compared to radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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