JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Surprised you didn't launch your laptop for a special sounding.Lol. It's the SREF member that gives 50" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Surprised you didn't launch your laptop for a special sounding. If something in my brain didn't click right away telling me that was not a mean it would have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Surprised you didn't launch your laptop for a special sounding. More data is more better. Been talk about getting radiosonde level equipment on jets and plugging it into the main models, some jets and private forecast companies already do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 More data is more better. Been talk about getting radiosonde level equipment on jets and plugging it into the main models, some jets and private forecast companies already do so.That's a bit different than shooting a laptop into the atmosphere, presumably with firecrackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 That's a bit different than shooting a laptop into the atmosphere, presumably with firecrackers. I'll buy the firecrackers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I'll buy the firecrackers.I'll let wiz use his laptop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Seems like an unpredictable situation the next few days with the only certainty being pouring rain across the entire area. Widespread instability seems like a lock and is modeled on every piece of guidance I've seen but favors different areas while making a general focus shift to the east on wednesday. The real question seems to be what occurs Wednesday as the storm departs and of course the well mentioned severe threat tomorrow (tuesday). QPF maxes seem to be varied across the models, with some predicting litchfield county and the berks. Some have HVN to New Bedford potential south coast jackpots in addition. With the setup it would make sense to me, especially if the firehose makes an appearance. My thinking is that anywhere nw of bos-pvd has a pretty substantial severe threat tomorrow (of course already excluding the south shore of sne). It's pretty damn unstable and combined with moisture, one wet fart and you will have towering cu. I think the tor threats might be mixed into a line or multicell when all is said and done (sort of like midatlantic today. Seems like it would be kind of hard to maintain a distinct discrete classic super cell in this environment with no cap. I'm kind of skeptical on the firehose, but my interest is sparked because the euro is bullish on it. Euro actually had a great handle on the rain this afternoon, looking back at it now. At the same time it has impressive instability for almost the entire area on Tuesday, highest cape is in previously mentioned spots in the west and then shifts east as the evening continues on. Good cape Wednesday SE of BOS, BDL, HVN. Also torrential rains. Euro just smoked the gfs handling this front a few days too. Kinda leaning on this. Nam 18z 12km seems meh to me on Tuesday in SNE. Wagons NW with the good stuff. Of course still widespread drenching rains. However, Wednesday is an absolute firehouse deluge south of Boston and even into the city in eastern mass. 18z RGEM/GEM says max qpf litchfield county, good dousing for the entire region, but no real matching qpf maxes in the east or south coast like other models suggest. Just isn't as substantial as any other model. Seems underdone considering that. Also considering I'm probably already almost reaching the rain total it suggests two days from now as being the storm total. 18z GFS looks similar to the nam but without the wednesday show in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 18z RGEM/GEM says max qpf litchfield county, good dousing for the entire region, but no real matching qpf maxes in the east or south coast like other models suggest. Just isn't as substantial as any other model. Seems underdone considering that. Also considering I'm probably already almost reaching the rain total it suggests two days from now as being the storm total. Messenger is rolling in his seasonal grave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Loop the Philly KDIX radar, both reflectivity and velocity. Hell of a lot going on there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Loop the Philly KDIX radar, both reflectivity and velocity. Hell of a lot going on there lol.We got hit hard down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 18z GFS shifted the supercell composite max up to SNH from Springfield. Seems like a line from Springfield to Concord NH is going to be the hot zone. I'm taking Rt 2 west tomorrow to see what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 18z GFS shifted the supercell composite max up to SNH from Springfield. Seems like a line from Springfield to Concord NH is going to be the hot zone. I'm taking Rt 2 west tomorrow to see what I can see. I agree about SNH. They do well in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Big flash and boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 ORH might be the best bet to start from tomorrow. Easy access to the west and north... of course would get a little harder north of rt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 We got hit hard down here.lightning is impressive on radarscope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I wouldn't be using the GFS for anything related to severe lol. It had the front thru tomorrow morning if you recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 21z SREF has decent probs for >1000 J/KG of Cape...backed off a bit though on probs for >2000 Cape. Assuming this is SBcape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 I wouldn't be using the GFS for anything related to severe lol. It had the front thru tomorrow morning if you recall Well the GFS can have better handles on these setups...often times it's much more realistic when it comes to projected cloud cover...NAM can often overdo cloudiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 21z SREF has decent probs for >1000 J/KG of Cape...backed off a bit though on probs for >2000 Cape. Assuming this is SBcape? Are the SREFS decent severe indicators? Totally honest question...never really looked at them in the warm season. I ask because they were absolutely atrocious all winter, to the point of being un-usable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 I agree about SNH. They do well in these setups. 21z SPC SREF has best severe probs up into VT/NH tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 I wouldn't be using the GFS for anything related to severe lol. It had the front thru tomorrow morning if you recall You say that no matter what the event...severe, snowstorms, ice storms, hurricanes, sou'easters, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 North american models versus the european. Much like front timing was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Big flash and boomHeard it here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 North american models versus the european. Much like front timing was.Chose your side, I know mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 Are the SREFS decent severe indicators? Totally honest question...never really looked at them in the warm season. I ask because they were absolutely atrocious all winter, to the point of being un-usable. Just like when using them for winter indices and such they are great to look at to get an idea of what the mean is for (in this case) cape projections. In this case the 21z run is showing >80% probs of getting >1000 J/KG of Cape so seeing that certainly is an indicator that is what we will be dealing with. SREFS can be absolutely huge when dealing with these situations b/c you can gauge what way to lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Are the SREFS decent severe indicators? Totally honest question...never really looked at them in the warm season. I ask because they were absolutely atrocious all winter, to the point of being un-usable. Actually they do much better with severe than snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 21z SPC SREF has best severe probs up into VT/NH tomorrow How much/what scaling system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Actually they do much better with severe than snow lol Good to know...and would make sense being a composite of more meso-scale models. Synoptically, if you remember, they had a very rough winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 15, 2014 Share Posted July 15, 2014 Actually they do much better with severe than snow lolThen they are useless, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2014 Author Share Posted July 15, 2014 How much/what scaling system? I'm not really sure what the scale system means...all I know is the brighter the colors the better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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