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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Definitely an interesting setup tomorrow especially with any breaks of sun. I agree...esp western areas and perhaps into eastern areas later.

 

Adjusted: 

 

esp southwestern areas and perhaps into eastern areas later.  Not so great for GC.  But to the south--Hartford and tolland--could have some fun.  Oysters strewn all over the beach in FFD.

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Better than the 0-0 split. Can't buy any sort of a storm here

 

Gutterball?

 

GYX has posted a pretty extended flash flood watch for most of the south half of its CWA - tomorrow morning thru 0z Thurs.  I see rain incoming but no more than an occasional rumble (if that) for my area over the next 2 days.

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This is pretty good low level shear. Usually you want that kind of shear for weak spin-ups. The key is getting good CAPE in that level to really tighten things up. You do that, and stretch the column which creates even more potential spin. The only thing that is meh is the 700-500 winds really don't do much. I'd like to see either some strong winds or a little more turning. Even so, I'd say western areas probably will be under the gone for some pockets of wind damage and maybe a couple of spin-ups. 

 

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925 winds are close to 40kts out of the SW. To me, that is the threshold since LCLs are so low..it won't take much to induce spin. 925 is like 2800ft or so. We'll see if we can muster up some CAPE. I'd probably be excited if I were Ryan and his domain too. 

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