moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 HRRR kind of alludes to what Scooter was saying with activity forming to the SW and building NE GC, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 GC, ftl. Considering you are the only area that's had any storms all summer..I don't think you should be complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Considering you are the only area that's had any storms all summer..I don't think you should be complaining Agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The 13z HRRR keeps most of the activity southwest of New England, at least through midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I know Quincy's feeling was we wouldn't see any sun today..which was why he was down on severe. Obviously the instability won't be an issue today..We'll just have to watch that disturbance you mentioned as it moves NE and see how things unfoldI never said no sun, but there isn't exactly much sun right now. Overcast here in the Naugatuck Valley: Decoded Surface Obs Mon Jul 14 15:21:44 UTC 2014 ID Temp Dew Winds Press Clouds Prec Weather F F deg knt mb 100ft cov in KBDL 80 70 0 at 3 1012.6 40 BKN ---- KBDR 77 71 220 at 7 1013.3 47 BKN ---- KDXR 75 67 240 at 3 1013.7 14 OVC ---- KGON 76 71 240 at 8 1013.3 14 SCT ---- haze KHFD 78 69 160 at 4 1012.9 21 BKN ---- KHVN 77 70 0 at 5 1013.4 15 OVC ---- KIJD 77 69 240 at 5 1013.2 16 OVC ---- KMMK 75 69 200 at 4 1013.4 16 OVC ---- KOXC 73 64 0 at 0 ------ 8 OVC ---- haze KSNC 77 72 190 at 6 ------ 16 BKN ---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 12z GFS is a deluge now from Philly to Boston on Wednesday morning-afternoon as the wave develops right over the NJ coast and slides NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 GFS also has a pretty impressive severe setup on Tuesday as well here in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Agree... The tree strike notwithstanding, the season has been utterly forgettable here. 7-10 split mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The rev is on a hype mission today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The rev is on a hype mission today "Today" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The rev is on a hype mission today He's making up for his self-banishment. This weather blows. 78.2/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 He's making up for his self-banishment. This weather blows. 78.2/72 I'm sweating way too much. Any DP over 70 and the TP sticks.I like NYC later for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 New meso MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 141706Z - 141830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN WV AND NRN VA EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO NJ AND SE NY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS THE CELLS INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MD SWWD ACROSS CNTRL VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE TROUGH ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY IN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP. DUE TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE 1 KM...ANY CONVECTION THAT SHOWS ORGANIZATION SHOULD HAVE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT EXHIBIT ROTATION. ..BROYLES/HART.. 07/14/2014 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 New meso MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA...MD...PA...NJ...SE NY...DE...ERN WV...FAR WRN CT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 141706Z - 141830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT May the next update will take all of SNE out of the slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 GFS also has a pretty impressive severe setup on Tuesday as well here in SNE. No kidding. Supercell composite bullseye for Springfield. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/NE/gfsNE_con_scp_033.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Watch is out,only included Fairfield County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Western CT and SW Mass upgraded to slight risk tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The tree strike notwithstanding, the season has been utterly forgettable here. 7-10 split mostly. Better than the 0-0 split. Can't buy any sort of a storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 New Haven and Fairfield counties are under Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Western CT and SW Mass upgraded to slight risk tomorrow. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Here comes the weenie finger on radar up into CT from Sw to NE like Scooter described Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Western CT and SW Mass upgraded to slight risk tomorrow. Better yet, they mentioned that if storms form, a tornado or two is possible. Sounds right around what the mets here have been saying for a while. Good to know the fog of uncertainty might be lifting just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Someday.. maybe someday a severe risk won't favor 'far western ct' or at least maybe the next kbos tor warning I can be less than 1200mi away. increasing cloudiness and growing cu here.. can, feel the rain coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Where is the WPC coming up with 4.00" 48 hr QPF forecasts? Does the EC show that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Where is the WPC coming up with 4.00" 48 hr QPF forecasts? Does the EC show that? The Euro is mostly 2-3". I think why WPC is going a bit bullish is because PWAT's are extremely high. With multiple rounds of training strong convection it's a recipe for models busting on the low side. Some HRRR runs have dumped as much as 4-5" today alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I remain very impressed by tomorrow's setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Considering you are the only area that's had any storms all summer..I don't think you should be complaining We got one crazy storm on July 3rd, but you were busy making smores in Cape Cod... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I remain very impressed by tomorrow's setup. In what regards, damaging winds, or isolated TOR's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 We got one crazy storm on July 3rd, but you were busy making smores in Cape Cod...Right. His area has done just add well as ours. Still hoping for something today. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Deluge is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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