CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I actually agree with Wiz. If the NAM is right with this instability push from the south this aftn and evening..the threat does linger into the night with winds backing slightly. I'm kind of intrigued this aftn with this boundary in place as normally things don't fire and move from south to north. It could be a whole lot of nothing so we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Out of the game up here for storms or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sort of like the look of the windfields in the soundings... strong unidirectional flow but it's mostly around 260 which should help keep things clear this afternoon, especially early. To have any chance at a tornado you'd have to think that channeled flow or remnant boundaries will be especially important today, but even a non rotater could produce a heavy gust if it can tap into the jet aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Hopefully nobody is falsely getting their hopes up. The bottom line is this: -there's going to a good amount of severe wx in New England over the next days -there's going to be at least several low topped spinner's and TOR's -damaging wet microbursts are the biggest threat -this is going to be our biggest outbreak of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 You can see what I mean at 925mb on the SPC site. I also noted CU field moving SE too at work. Temporary stabilization, but setting up boundary for later on. With another disturbance pushing north, that setups up shwrs/tstms developing later and pushing north. I'm not saying severe galore, but could be interesting setup later on from NYC on northeast through CT and perhaps up into ern MA early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 You can see what I mean at 925mb on the SPC site. I also noted CU field moving SE too at work. Temporary stabilization, but setting up boundary for later on. With another disturbance pushing north, that setups up shwrs/tstms developing later and pushing north. I'm not saying severe galore, but could be interesting setup later on from NYC on northeast through CT and perhaps up into ern MA early evening. Yeah I agree. I think the timing is just a bit late for us in SNE with the best LLJ hanging west until later but interesting for sure around NYC metro and even down toward Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sort of like the look of the windfields in the soundings... strong unidirectional flow but it's mostly around 260 which should help keep things clear this afternoon, especially early. To have any chance at a tornado you'd have to think that channeled flow or remnant boundaries will be especially important today, but even a non rotater could produce a heavy gust if it can tap into the jet aloft. Yeah decent flow through the column... but also winds the morning are light out of the south here in CT for the most part. Definitely some turning in the 0-1km layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Yeah I agree. I think the timing is just a bit late for us in SNE with the best LLJ hanging west until later but interesting for sure around NYC metro and even down toward Philly. Yeah the LLJ is sort of hanging west until later, but maybe that push early evening could help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'm worried about keeping things discrete without the cap, spin ups are probably going to be locally enhanced by terrain etc. Serious flash flood threat though, that cant be stressed enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Yeah the LLJ is sort of hanging west until later, but maybe that push early evening could help? Certainly could. The Euro is a :weenie: for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Certainly could. The Euro is a :weenie: for tomorrow. Strong SW winds at 850. Looks good for some flying tobacco tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Even Wednesday could have some more convection in ern areas with the front dragging it's heals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Strong SW winds at 850. Looks good for some flying tobacco tomorrow. Quite a bit of CAPE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Quite a bit of CAPE too Oh I didn't even look at that. I bet we get some BINOVC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I wonder what time things get going today...I have a softball game @ 5:30. Also on vacation this week and have a campsite booked in the White's starting tomorrow night. I think we might head up on Wednesday instead and hopefully this crap is out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Today actually could turn out partly/mostly sunny until mid afternoon. Dews are modeled to get up into the mid 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Today actually could turn out partly/mostly sunny until mid afternoon. Dews are modeled to get up into the mid 70's I don't think dews will get overly oppressive until tomorrow. It will be humid, but tomorrow will feel like Haiti. Probably like 70-72 today which is moist enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I don't think dews will get overly oppressive until tomorrow. It will be humid, but tomorrow will feel like Haiti. Probably like 70-72 today which is moist enough. I know Quincy's feeling was we wouldn't see any sun today..which was why he was down on severe. Obviously the instability won't be an issue today..We'll just have to watch that disturbance you mentioned as it moves NE and see how things unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I know Quincy's feeling was we wouldn't see any sun today..which was why he was down on severe. Obviously the instability won't be an issue today..We'll just have to watch that disturbance you mentioned as it moves NE and see how things unfold Well the sunnier weather is in the more stable region so it's sort of a balance if you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 HRRR kind of alludes to what Scooter was saying with activity forming to the SW and building NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Of course you should never rip and read those verbatim..but it gives you the idea...even that weenie finger of cells extending into CT. This is where the instability is right now. Notice all the MUCAPE south of SNE over the waters. This is aloft of course and it's not a coincidence that the lower PWATS over land have more stable air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 CT/RI/SE Mass special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 CT/RI/SE Mass special? With 3+ inches of rain over you and up into S NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Don't post the hires Euro stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 CT/RI/SE Mass special? No I don't see it that way. I was just showing how that has to, and will push north again later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Even Wednesday could have some more convection in ern areas with the front dragging it's heals.Nam has been bulking that up.. last night it looked more potent.. firehouse lifting northeast inundating the entire eastern half of sne with thunder/lightning wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Healthy looking cu field here after tropical showers this am, actually had one or two solid showers. Long range out in hrrr but looked stormy on an earlier run in the overnight but was in clown range. I thnk we see line or cells head into nyc, then spread into ct.. severe? No its meh. I bet hartford to Kev sees some nice downpours. Everyone sees solid rain past dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Nam has been bulking that up.. last night it looked more potent.. firehouse lifting northeast inundating the entire eastern half of sne with thunder/lightning wednesday? Well it could be just rain with a few rumbles too. Depends on how slow the front is because the real instability might already be pushing east. BTW, I'm not making a series of posts today because I think it's going to be a big day or something...it's just that we finally have more widespread wx that isn't just ern NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Well it could be just rain with a few rumbles too. Depends on how slow the front is because the real instability might already be pushing east. BTW, I'm not making a series of posts today because I think it's going to be a big day or something...it's just that we finally have more widespread wx that isn't just ern NY state. Models do show some CIN developing after 00z so I think we just miss the juxtaposition of sb convection and strong 0-3km shear. Today, that sets up over NJ and PA. That should mitigate the tornado threat after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Models do show some CIN developing after 00z so I think we just miss the juxtaposition of sb convection and strong 0-3km shear. Today, that sets up over NJ and PA. That should mitigate the tornado threat after dark. Tomorrow should have the better juxtaposition, especially out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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