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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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73/64 roasting expecting severe storms and tors tonight due to your posts. God how far you have fallen

lol you two crack me up. Any dew in the 60s starts to feel pretty humid, though.

69/67 here with mist. Air is so thick you can cut it with a knife. 0.21" of rain this afternoon/evening...just enough to make the low levels of the atmosphere feel like a swamp.

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The environment tonight looks like it may sustain these things far to the east. May not be the quick collapse east if ORH we usually see

 

Storms died over central CT as they've been doing all year... not sure why they keep including Tolland county in the severe t-storm watches.  

 

It's tropical with a dew of 70 right now though.

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We might actually get screwed over by timing once again.  Activity may arrive a bit late so we could lose instability.  Have to see how HRRR evolves today but looks quite meh right now.  NBC's in house sim radar though looked decent.  

 

Just have to watch how today progresses and when activity develops/arrives but threats of damaging winds, hail, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes still on the table

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We might actually get screwed over by timing once again.  Activity may arrive a bit late so we could lose instability.  Have to see how HRRR evolves today but looks quite meh right now.  NBC's in house sim radar though looked decent.  

 

Just have to watch how today progresses and when activity develops/arrives but threats of damaging winds, hail, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes still on the table

 

Paul--are you expecting this to continue to be a south thing?  I hoping for stuff here, but I know these things are fickle.

 

66.9/66

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Paul--are you expecting this to continue to be a south thing?  I hoping for stuff here, but I know these things are fickle.

 

66.9/66

 

You're area is definitely still in the game.  

 

What further complicates matters is given how juiced up the atmosphere is and how we virtually have zero capping, showers and t'storms can virtually develop at any given time and mesoscale models could miss this.  

 

Right now I'm wondering if we could hold onto a severe threat through the night but instability becomes rather weak.  

 

The 6z GFS is quite robust with instability later on while the NAM is pretty meh and the NAM doesn't have the flow backed as much as previous runs. 

 

The SREF mean generates about 800 J/KG of MLcape though which is adequate given shear values.  

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Some areas last night picked up quite close to 2'' of rainfall...pretty darn impressive.  Some areas may get 5-6'' or so when all said done

 

SOS

 

You're area is definitely still in the game.  

 

What further complicates matters is given how juiced up the atmosphere is and how we virtually have zero capping, showers and t'storms can virtually develop at any given time and mesoscale models could miss this.  

 

Right now I'm wondering if we could hold onto a severe threat through the night but instability becomes rather weak.  

 

The 6z GFS is quite robust with instability later on while the NAM is pretty meh and the NAM doesn't have the flow backed as much as previous runs. 

 

The SREF mean generates about 800 J/KG of MLcape though which is adequate given shear values.  

 

Thanks.

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It's certainly a good thing we are getting sun now but the question is how long does this last?  I suspect once we see some surface heating take place clouds will begin to develop and become widespread and that will work to hamper heating a bit and level off instability.  However, the dry punch in the mlvls could help to suppress widespread clouds from developing.

 

Today is definitely a nowcast day

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It's certainly a good thing we are getting sun now but the question is how long does this last?  I suspect once we see some surface heating take place clouds will begin to develop and become widespread and that will work to hamper heating a bit and level off instability.  However, the dry punch in the mlvls could help to suppress widespread clouds from developing.

 

Today is definitely a nowcast day

 

The deep sunshine now is certainly a big thing and key to today

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