Connecticut Appleman Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I can see the lightning running on the MA/CT border. Hopefully we get some rain from the southern tail to this set of storms coming out of Litchfield County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Watching the Orioles/Yankees game on National TV in Baltimore. Severe line of thunderstorms 30 miles west of the stadium filled with people. This will be interesting to watch to see what they are going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Just looked but the 18z GFS is actually pretty potent for Tuesday. But off to bed now...3:00 wake up time blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Alot of close strikes around here and a ton of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Of course it is. It s never humid there. Even when your dew us 6773/64 roasting expecting severe storms and tors tonight due to your posts. God how far you have fallen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Alot of street flooding and ponding going on priming this area for tomorrow and tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 73/64 roasting expecting severe storms and tors tonight due to your posts. God how far you have fallen lol you two crack me up. Any dew in the 60s starts to feel pretty humid, though. 69/67 here with mist. Air is so thick you can cut it with a knife. 0.21" of rain this afternoon/evening...just enough to make the low levels of the atmosphere feel like a swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Air is so thick you can cut it with a knife. No you can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 No you can't. It's magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 The environment tonight looks like it may sustain these things far to the east. May not be the quick collapse east if ORH we usually see Storms died over central CT as they've been doing all year... not sure why they keep including Tolland county in the severe t-storm watches. It's tropical with a dew of 70 right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Heavy heavies in West Hartford right now....it sounds good with the window up.....like it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 No thunder though.....boooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 1.5 inches in the gauge since 8pm, 70 degrees & a few flashes and rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 1.5 inches in the gauge since 8pm, 70 degrees & a few flashes and rumbles. Nice. Totally meh here with .09". Maybe today will be better. A Kevin-type of morning. 65.9/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Plenty if breaks of blue out there this morning. We all are gonna bang hard and fast today. A dangerous 48-60 hours lies ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 We might actually get screwed over by timing once again. Activity may arrive a bit late so we could lose instability. Have to see how HRRR evolves today but looks quite meh right now. NBC's in house sim radar though looked decent. Just have to watch how today progresses and when activity develops/arrives but threats of damaging winds, hail, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 We might actually get screwed over by timing once again. Activity may arrive a bit late so we could lose instability. Have to see how HRRR evolves today but looks quite meh right now. NBC's in house sim radar though looked decent. Just have to watch how today progresses and when activity develops/arrives but threats of damaging winds, hail, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes still on the table Paul--are you expecting this to continue to be a south thing? I hoping for stuff here, but I know these things are fickle. 66.9/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Paul--are you expecting this to continue to be a south thing? I hoping for stuff here, but I know these things are fickle. 66.9/66 You're area is definitely still in the game. What further complicates matters is given how juiced up the atmosphere is and how we virtually have zero capping, showers and t'storms can virtually develop at any given time and mesoscale models could miss this. Right now I'm wondering if we could hold onto a severe threat through the night but instability becomes rather weak. The 6z GFS is quite robust with instability later on while the NAM is pretty meh and the NAM doesn't have the flow backed as much as previous runs. The SREF mean generates about 800 J/KG of MLcape though which is adequate given shear values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 Some areas last night picked up quite close to 2'' of rainfall...pretty darn impressive. Some areas may get 5-6'' or so when all said done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun is out here lets keep it that way. Alot of water showing up in yards around here surprised alot more didnt soak threw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Some areas last night picked up quite close to 2'' of rainfall...pretty darn impressive. Some areas may get 5-6'' or so when all said done SOS You're area is definitely still in the game. What further complicates matters is given how juiced up the atmosphere is and how we virtually have zero capping, showers and t'storms can virtually develop at any given time and mesoscale models could miss this. Right now I'm wondering if we could hold onto a severe threat through the night but instability becomes rather weak. The 6z GFS is quite robust with instability later on while the NAM is pretty meh and the NAM doesn't have the flow backed as much as previous runs. The SREF mean generates about 800 J/KG of MLcape though which is adequate given shear values. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 It's certainly a good thing we are getting sun now but the question is how long does this last? I suspect once we see some surface heating take place clouds will begin to develop and become widespread and that will work to hamper heating a bit and level off instability. However, the dry punch in the mlvls could help to suppress widespread clouds from developing. Today is definitely a nowcast day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 0.1" of rain last night. The wind was interesting last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 It's certainly a good thing we are getting sun now but the question is how long does this last? I suspect once we see some surface heating take place clouds will begin to develop and become widespread and that will work to hamper heating a bit and level off instability. However, the dry punch in the mlvls could help to suppress widespread clouds from developing. Today is definitely a nowcast day The deep sunshine now is certainly a big thing and key to today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 The deep sunshine now is certainly a big thing and key to today Can't disagree but it can be a bit misleading. If we are talking about storm timing of during the evening and overnight than it means absolutely nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 You just have to lay all the cards on the table and discuss all the positives, negatives, questions, if's, and's and but's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 You just have to lay all the cards on the table and discuss all the positives, negatives, questions, if's, and's and but's. Sun fail so far up this way. 68.6/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 14, 2014 Author Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'm not sure how I feel about saying this but we could actually see not only the threat for severe wx last through the night but the threat for an isolated tornado or two as well. Looking at bufkit and looks interesting through the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 Sun fail so far up this way. 68.6/68 Hazy sun here with some blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 14, 2014 Share Posted July 14, 2014 I'm not sure how I feel about saying this but we could actually see not only the threat for severe wx last through the night but the threat for an isolated tornado or two as well. Looking at bufkit and looks interesting through the night Interested to get Ryan's take on things this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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