Quincy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 IF Tuesday can slow down more per GFS and Euro ENS, then that might capture my attention. Note that even with relatively strong speed shear and the seasonably strong upper level support, the timing still has to be there and clouds/crapvection could throw another wrench into this setup. Just another example of how <b>most</b> Northeast potential severe setups don't become terribly clear until the near-term. Too many things can go wrong, especially with a SW flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Monday might really be our best shot across western SNE with Tuesday extreme eastern sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Yeah most of the convection we get is produced by pre-frontal troughs as opposed to cold fronts themselves. When we have those rare setups of extreme instability then we can get multiple rounds of severe...pre-fronts and cold fronts...doesn't happen too often though IE June 1st 2011, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Monday might really be our best shot across western SNE with Tuesday extreme eastern sectionsThis. Best shot may be on Monday in advance of the cold front. Perhaps a rogue supercell or even better if we could have some sort of remnant frontal boundary in place to help with shear in the low-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 IE June 1st 2011, no? Yeah...I'm pretty sure we saw some severe with the cold front as well. What really helps is you get storms early afternoon...then once they pass it clears right back up and this allows the atmosphere to re-destabilize ahead of the front. You also really don't want winds to veer too much behind the pre-frontal and dry out the llvls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 This. Best shot may be on Monday in advance of the cold front. Perhaps a rogue supercell or even better if we could have some sort of remnant frontal boundary in place to help with shear in the low-levels. Looks like on Tuesday a boundary moves through in the AM and the llvls really dry out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 If you want a case of an early summer anomalous ULL producing severe, I'd suggest 7/1/98. Even with that though, there was a west flow and drying aloft. I'm having trouble finding cases where a SW flow resulted in impressive severe in this part of the country, aside from straight-line winds from a squall line. Flash flooding would appear the most likely big impact here, especially with the PWATs so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Get a capitol tour on Friday. Members are back in their districts on Fridays (most of the time), but tours tend to be very easy to setup. This. As hard as it seems to try and figure out a snowstorm, trying to see where all the pieces fit for a severe setup is much harder imo. That's why it's mostly unintelligent dopes who prefer snow to severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Monday could be an interesting afternoon/evening as long as we develop modest instability which the NAM and GFS suggest we do. Shear aloft is decent and even some backing of the low level winds as well. Clouds could perhaps be some sort of an issue, however, the column appears to be dry enough to where we should be able to get enough surface heating...would have to watch for areas of differential heating for a focus for convection too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Oh well...now going to try and switch back to working like 11 to 6 on Tuesday so I can go register for classes since not going chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 This. As hard as it seems to try and figure out a snowstorm, trying to see where all the pieces fit for a severe setup is much harder imo. Worse still is resolving the microscale effects. We had a supercell go from Northwest Middlesex county to Boston last monday, and I noticed a rain cloud get sucked into the inflow. There's been a lot of research suggesting that thunderstorms that have other storms or rain clouds interact with them in that manner can gain rotation from the interaction, and potentially become tornadic. In fact, researchers suspect that the Moore tornado was started, and strengthened by, weak cells entering the main supercell. That may be one of hundreds of the little factors that can heavily influence severe weather and make or break an outbreak. Such things just don't resolve well until they are happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of a strong to severe t'storms late tomorrow afternoon across western CT or MA...would have to watch if something did develop b/c helicity will be high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 That's why it's mostly unintelligent dopes who prefer snow to severe weather. What a weenie . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of a strong to severe t'storms late tomorrow afternoon across western CT or MA...would have to watch if something did develop b/c helicity will be highToo bad the best forcing will probably lag further west. It could be another scenario where decaying storms move into western New England after dark. NAM is really meager with instability, although the GFS is slightly more robust by the NY border late Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Too bad the best forcing will probably lag further west. It could be another scenario where decaying storms move into western New England after dark. NAM is really meager with instability, although the GFS is slightly more robust by the NY border late Sunday afternoon. Have to see how quickly the warm front blows through and how quickly things destabilize. Looks like there could be a weak piece of energy which actually moves from southern NY right over CT/MA after 21z tomorrow which may be able to spark something depending on degree of instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Euro looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Anytime you're dealing with the flow aloft parallel to the upper flow and have ridging off to our east it's always best to take the slower timing...like 99.9% of the time. However, I think sometimes we get too caught up with fropa timing...most of the time convection develops along the pre-frontal trough as opposed to the cold front so it's probably more important to gauge where the pre-frontal will be positioned and the speed of that. I'm more concerned with debris/junk/clouds than a trigger.. its a florida like airmass.. moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm more concerned with debris/junk/clouds than a trigger.. its a florida like airmass.. moist That will certainly be an issue but I don't think that would be a deal breaker. With SW flows that tends to dry the column out a bit and the sun angle is high enough to where it should help to erode some of the clouds...so we would see some pockets of higher instability. Best chances would be western sections. The lack of capping is a big worry b/c with lift around it will be pretty easy for showers to pop up which limits destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 That's why it's mostly unintelligent dopes who prefer snow to severe weather. lol,look its a rope, nope dust devil,10 days several thousand dollars later....and the dopes are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Snow wins. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 That will certainly be an issue but I don't think that would be a deal breaker. With SW flows that tends to dry the column out a bit and the sun angle is high enough to where it should help to erode some of the clouds...so we would see some pockets of higher instability. Best chances would be western sections. The lack of capping is a big worry b/c with lift around it will be pretty easy for showers to pop up which limits destabilization. I'm not sure I buy it being a western only threat yet. I think there will be a couple small windows in the east to get some good boomers. Also, I wonder if VT/NH/W ME are potential candidates for some discrete cells away from any marine influence. If you are SE Of PVD or BOS you're probably out of the mix unless there is elevated. locally enhanced spinners for w me and nh foothills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Snow wins. That is all. Snow + convection = everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christina311 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Snow is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Snow is boringhome damage sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Snow is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 12z euro is a general 1.5-4" across almost all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 I'm not sure I buy it being a western only threat yet. I think there will be a couple small windows in the east to get some good boomers. Also, I wonder if VT/NH/W ME are potential candidates for some discrete cells away from any marine influence. If you are SE Of PVD or BOS you're probably out of the mix unless there is elevated. locally enhanced spinners for w me and nh foothills? Eastern sections certainly are not out of the game. Right now I would think eastern sections have a window on Tuesday for strong to severe given how everything is looking now. Could also get elevated convection at night as well. I think anywhere across the region could have the potential for discrete cells with spinner possibilities but will all depend on mesoscale aspects and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christina311 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Snow is fun and convection is fun...enjoy the weather that each season brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Eastern sections certainly are not out of the game. Right now I would think eastern sections have a window on Tuesday for strong to severe given how everything is looking now. Could also get elevated convection at night as well. I think anywhere across the region could have the potential for discrete cells with spinner possibilities but will all depend on mesoscale aspects and such. I'm excited for it. It certainly will be far from boring. Was looking at PWAT's.. They don't come down until the wee hours of Thursday (UTC). (EURO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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