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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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I'm OK with that. Nighttime storms have always been one of my favorite things. Nighttime spinners? Naso much. I'm goods with these storms going linear.

The older I get, I think the more I realize that I like discrete cells during the day, intense lines at night.

Luckily for you, it almost always works out here like that! (linear, discrete)

 

That may be,  but then why were we watched?

The watch area involves almost half of New England, and is close to what the HRRR suggests. That's a large portion of our area anyhow. I've noticed a tendency for the models to be overzealous with destroying a line. I'm not saying a watch is warranted to the east at all, but its not like we have onshore winds or a ton of cinh east of the watch either. I would bet rain and rumbles to the coast.

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BTV has issued a SVR Warning that's massive.  I'm not sure I've seen one that big before around here. 

 

That northern New York warning box is as big as the state of Connecticut.

 

Might be the biggest I've seen.  Might also be the first time I've seen a warning in effect for 87 mins.

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NYC019-031-033-089-090015-

/O.NEW.KBTV.SV.W.0007.140708T2248Z-140709T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

648 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

  CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

  ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

* AT 644 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN

  EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR LOWVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

  75 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...

  FOWLER...GOUVERNEUR...WANAKENA...FINE...HORSESHOE LAKE...CRANBERRY

  LAKE...PIERCEFIELD...TUPPER LAKE...LAKE CLEAR...SARANAC INN...PAUL

  SMITHS...RAINBOW LAKE...AND LAKE PLACID

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY

LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...8 0 2 8 6 3 4 2 7 9...OR

SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GET TO SAFETY IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. WINDS

MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. LARGE HAIL

MAY CAUSE INJURY AND DAMAGE PROPERTY.

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE BUILDINGS. TAKE

COVER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 4448 7582 4478 7541 4495 7501 4499 7498

      4503 7484 4500 7474 4500 7428 4502 7335

      4416 7339 4408 7344 4391 7433 4397 7426

      4411 7429 4404 7506 4440 7585

TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 235DEG 65KT 4380 7549

$$

NEILES

 

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Might be the biggest I've seen.  Might also be the first time I've seen a warning in effect for 87 mins.

 

 

 

Must be spooked by that huge area of severe wind right now.

 

Fort Drum, NY getting rocked...45mph sustained, gusting 66mph.  Full foliage, you know that's doing some damage.

 

KGTB 082255Z 20039G57KT 1/2SM +RA FG FEW001 OVC025 23/22 A2945 AO2A PK WND 20057/2255 SLP969 WSHFT 2242 SLP969

 

Watertown/ART also gusting to around 50mph, with 1.3" of rainfall in 1-hour.  Wind and flash flooding.

 

KART 082246Z AUTO 26033G43KT 1/2SM +TSRA SQ FEW008 BKN012 OVC030 22/19 A2946 AO2 PK WND 26043/2245 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB04E21B46 P0110 T02220194

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Disclaimer, weenie statement. ...

If that tor warned cell didn't exist, I'd say that we'd possibly have a derecho on our hands. Those straight line winds look nasty.

Not to mention, that meso low that's developing just to the north. .

If that cell merges into the line, is it at least a possibility?

was thinking the same
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I don't think this would be classified as a "true derecho".  Several ingredients missing from what separates actual derechoes from very intense squall lines which produce some areas of significant wind damage.  True derechoes are characterized by extreme instability, very steep mid-level lapse rates (typically on the order of 7.5-8 C/KM) associated with an EML, and dewpoints into the lower and mid 70's.  

 

What we have today was a moderately unstable environment thanks to a hot and extremely moist low-level airmass all under the presence of very strong deep layer shear.  The degree of instability in place was more than enough given the degree of shear in place.  

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Wind velocities seem to be diminishing as the line approaches the Champlain Valley. 

 

Will be interesting to see if this can keep any severe characteristics as it moves into New England.  Seems to be losing its punch as that meso-low moves into Canada and we are losing daytime heating.

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Well we will see what happens... BTV just issued another massive Warning that covers like 6 whole counties, in effect for the next hour.  The last paragraph is interesting.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
843 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  LAMOILLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT...
  GRAND ISLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...
  EASTERN ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...
  EASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...
  CHITTENDEN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...
  ADDISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT...
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT.

* AT 836 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS
  IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM MOOERS TO
  WILLSBORO POINT TO PHAROAH MOUNTAIN...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 45
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
  TICONDEROGA...BURLINGTON...ROUSES POINT...WILLISTON...
  WESTFORD...LINCOLN...UNDERHILL...LAKE CARMI STATE
  PARK...WATERBURY...ROXBURY...EAST MONTPELIER...NORTHFIELD FALLS.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAIN.

BOATERS ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR NOW! STRONG WINDS
WILL CAUSE HIGHER WAVES AND SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS MAY OVERTURN BOATS.

***WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS MAY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES AND DAMAGE
BUILDINGS. TAKE COVER NOW.***
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