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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Burlington svr warns it when it has its strongest rotation yet?

Eh, the rotation signature has weakened significantly, the rightward turn has ended, and the dBZ has fallen quite a bit.  Hallmarks of a weakening system, I'd say the TOR removal is well thought out.  TBSS has really hidden itself, as well.

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That storm outlines exactly why the BDF defines the eastward extent of the Slight Risk zone.  50 degree air is no good for thunderstorm maintenance, watch that Rutland cell die off in the next half hour to showers over N ORH county.  Stuff'll pop up the the NW, slide towards the boundary, get some nice rotation when it hits it, and die out right afterwards.  SPC has it in their outlook.

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Mesoscale Discussion 735

< Previous MD

mcd0735.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0735

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0605 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CT...LONG ISLAND NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 272305Z - 280000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS

WILL EXIST THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS SRN CT INTO LONG ISLAND NY. A WW

IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A BRIEF/LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS

MAY ACCOMPANY A BROKEN LINE OF PERSISTENT TSTMS MOVING SWD INTO SRN

CT...AND POSSIBLY INTO LONG ISLAND BY 01Z. OCCASIONAL MIDLEVEL

ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED PER KOKX VELOCITY DATA ON THE TSTM MOVING

INTO FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT. THIS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG A SHARP

LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT INFLOW ENVIRONMENT INTO THESE STORMS

IS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR

60 F. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOW WLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO

NWLY IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR OCCASIONAL

STORM ROTATION...WITH THE PRIMARY ACCOMPANYING THREATS BEING HAIL

AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LIMITING FACTORS PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE ARE

ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE...THE BRIEF TEMPORAL WINDOW PRIOR TO THE LOSS

OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAIRLY MARGINAL BUOYANCY.

..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2014

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 40617335 41197354 41737353 41957337 42057296 41947260

41847245 41607225 40797233 40617335

 

 
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Man ..look at all those storms even into VT and upstate NY behind the door..elevated instability might keep these things going well into the night all the way to coast with NW flow aloft

The ones on the front are doing well, those past are toast.  ENE is pretty much out for this one, but western areas have a chance at some grumblers, I'd imagine.  Compare the storms on radar with the Frontogenesis map below.

 

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