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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Do scud clouds move in the direction of the storm or can they move in any direction?  A storm just passed my house and there were very low/dark cloud formations which definitely had a westward motion (and they appeared to be rising).  Is that due to wind shear? 

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Wow that happened quickly... I was outside and literally in about 5 minutes the clouds over the mountain Spine exploded upward.  That was like watching a mushroom cloud grow from an atomic bomb, pretty freakin' awesome.  Now thunder and light rain beginning.

 

 

 

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mesoanalysis suggests that the plume of better m/l lapse rates has shifted well east of the valley and even the shear has backed off a bit.  Areas up by Jeff may be best primed for this afternoon, we seem to be trending in the wrong direction down this way, and what's incoming looks like a messy line.  As it's still early, maybe once it hits the valley it spikes given channeled flow and some pooling llv moisture, but in general linear action weakens around here, not the other way around.

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Looking better than I expected for today, decent severe chances away from the coast. But not really a chase-able event, just a typical New England setup where random cells might occasionally take on supercellular characteristics, and you just have to hope it happens near you. So I’ll keep an eye on the radar for signs of low level mesocyclones, and if I think I see something really interesting I‘ll jump in my car and drive like crazy, hoping that the cell will still look good when I get there, which more often than not it won‘t. Good old New England weather, always such a tease. Of course, there’s always the possibility of a rogue tornadic supercell, but in general helicity is too low today for much in the way of persistent updraft rotation. Best bet would be any cells that are back-building against the steering flow, that can really increase SRH dramatically, I‘ve seen it happen. Best of luck to anyone out there chasing.

Edit: wow things really lined-out fast, pretty much while I was writing my post. Looks like a nice squall line shaping up.

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One of the better storms I've had here.  Some strong winds (est 40-50 range top gust), hail, frequent close lightning.  Strongest winds came at the same time as very heavy rain with much reduce visibility.  Cell hit dead center on me for once.  

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