CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Crap begets crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Today looks good for eastern NY, central and srn VT/NH as well as Berks..especially NW berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Today looks good for eastern NY, central and srn VT/NH as well as Berks..especially NW berks. I wish I could be home to enjoy rather than driving through them. But, I'll take what I can get. When do you think things might kick off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'll be I Springfield at the BB hall of fame for a field trip! I have my camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I wish I could be home to enjoy rather than driving through them. But, I'll take what I can get. When do you think things might kick off? Well the HRRR kicks things off real early now that I look at it. Looks like there is a nice instability tongue over NW CT and up your way. I'd say anytime after 2-4pm. Not sure I buy the real early stuff on HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Today looks good for eastern NY, central and srn VT/NH as well as Berks..especially NW berks. Lapse rates on the GFS are really steep tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Well the HRRR kicks things off real early now that I look at it. Looks like there is a nice instability tongue over NW CT and up your way. I'd say anytime after 2-4pm. Not sure I buy the real early stuff on HRRR. Yeah still some CIN/capping issues. I could see a big storm in Litchfield Co up to the Berks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Today looks good for eastern NY, central and srn VT/NH as well as Berks..especially NW berks.You could probably copy paste this for every severe threat and be right 90% of the time without looking at models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Lapse rates on the GFS are really steep tomorrow. Yeah threat further east tomorrow. Nothing much here probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 HRR/WRF both get storms as far east as ORH today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 HRR/WRF both get storms as far east as ORH today Something came through here. Lots of ACCAS and altocumulus this morning. TCU over the water now. If anything gets near ORH it's dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If someone could do me a big favor and post the 12z observed ALY and OKX soundings from the SPC site when they are out. I'll be at work and we aren't supposed to use our phones, however, if someone would be so kind to just post them here I can take like 5 seconds to quickly check. Thanks in advance! Here you go Wiz... not the greatest soundings but I expect improvement later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 You can see the EML the past few days. Easiest to see when a plane is climbing out of logan several thousand feet up. General yellow ish haze. I cannot believe how hot it is this AM. BOS 90F streak is going to end today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Well the HRRR kicks things off real early now that I look at it. Looks like there is a nice instability tongue over NW CT and up your way. I'd say anytime after 2-4pm. Not sure I buy the real early stuff on HRRR. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'll look forward to mudslides in VT the next few days while my yard turns into a desert for the second straight summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 For anyone wondering what ACCAS was like I was : Altocumulus Castellanus (ACCAS) is named for its tower-like projections that billow upwards from the base of the cloud. The base of the cloud can form as low as 2,000 metres (6,500 feet), or as high as 6,000 metres (20,000 feet). They are very similar to cumulus congestus clouds, but at a higher level. Castellanus clouds are evidence of mid-atmospheric instability and a high mid-altitude lapse rate.[1] They may be a harbinger of heavy showers and thunderstorms and, if surface-based convection can connect to the mid-tropospheric unstable layer, continued development of Castellanus clouds can produce cumulonimbus clouds. Altocumulus Castellanus clouds are typically accompanied by moderate turbulence as well as potential icing conditions. For these reasons, flight through Altocumulus Castellanus clouds is often best avoided by aircraft. [2] The appearance of Altocumulus Castellanus early in a sunny day may indicate a high probability the formation of thunderstorms in the afternoon, as they may develop into cumulonimbus storm clouds. [3] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Thanks! ALB sounding much better looking than OKX...nice sfc boundary too leading to backed winds...has to be watched. Pretty decent cap in place but both soundings show that the convective temp will be reached. Should be fun across NY into western MA and CT! We are leaving Springfield at 1:45...hopefully storms come by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If your not nw of like new haven hartford to orh forget it today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Something came through here. Lots of ACCAS and altocumulus this morning. TCU over the water now. If anything gets near ORH it's dying.TOR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'll look forward to mudslides in VT the next few days while my yard turns into a desert for the second straight summer. you'll get your rain...relax . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 TOR? Wouldn't be shocked if we saw a spin up today somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'll look forward to mudslides in VT the next few days while my yard turns into a desert for the second straight summer. Going to rain up here? Haven't looked at anything today...didn't look overly wet yesterday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Going to rain up here? Haven't looked at anything today...didn't look overly wet yesterday though. Probably to your south is best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Watch issued including all of Vermont, Berkshire County, and Litchfield County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA VERMONT * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1115 AM UNTIL 700 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF NEWPORT VERMONT TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALTOONA PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS TSTMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY AN TORNADO ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF PA/NY AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTN IN ZONE OF STRONG SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE...WSWLY DEEP SHEAR ON SERN FLANK OF HUDSON BAY UPR LOW. DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ASSISTED BY UPR IMPULSE NOW SHEARING NNEWD FROM WV/WRN PA. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 For anyone wondering what ACCAS was like I was : Altocumulus Castellanus (ACCAS) is named for its tower-like projections that billow upwards from the base of the cloud. The base of the cloud can form as low as 2,000 metres (6,500 feet), or as high as 6,000 metres (20,000 feet). They are very similar to cumulus congestus clouds, but at a higher level. Castellanus clouds are evidence of mid-atmospheric instability and a high mid-altitude lapse rate.[1] They may be a harbinger of heavy showers and thunderstorms and, if surface-based convection can connect to the mid-tropospheric unstable layer, continued development of Castellanus clouds can produce cumulonimbus clouds. Altocumulus Castellanus clouds are typically accompanied by moderate turbulence as well as potential icing conditions. For these reasons, flight through Altocumulus Castellanus clouds is often best avoided by aircraft. [2] The appearance of Altocumulus Castellanus early in a sunny day may indicate a high probability the formation of thunderstorms in the afternoon, as they may develop into cumulonimbus storm clouds. [3] ACCAS were observed the morning of the June 11' tornado where that first line blew up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It's be really nice if we could eek something out. No promises but I'll see what I can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 Severe probs upgraded...AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Just looking at the radar, it seems this afternoons severe threat may be slightly more SE...I'm not really seeing it up here. But it would put a bunch more posters into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Severe probs upgraded...AITyeah theres no reason it wont deliver somewhere me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.