weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 The cap is quite strong on Wednesday but I would watch Hudson River Valley, perhaps into western MA b/c if the convective temp is reached or any kind of lift breaks the cap, any storm or storms that fire could quickly become a supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 If forky rains on the coc parade, I am the anti convection guy. But my hate is legit. I'm scared of boomers ever since I was a boy. Dark clouds that aren't snow make me nervous. I like tracking severe but only if there is damage on someone else's yard. So here is to hoping wed thru Fri is more heavy downpours then wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Though not directly in this sub-forum, Wednesday afternoon could feature a severe threat across the central portion of New York State into the capital region, which seems to be a hotspot for severe. Maybe extend the threat into far western Mass. 00z 4km NAM fires a line of storms by mid-afternoon and it makes it to DXR-BDL before collapsing. Probably overdone as often is the case. Edit: I didn't see the new Day 2 outlook, but they include far NW CT in the slight risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Pretty big tree snapped last night by my place was there any kind of wind tree actually looked pretty healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Though not directly in this sub-forum, Wednesday afternoon could feature a severe threat across the central portion of New York State into the capital region, which seems to be a hotspot for severe. Maybe extend the threat into far western Mass. 00z 4km NAM fires a line of storms by mid-afternoon and it makes it to DXR-BDL before collapsing. Probably overdone as often is the case. Edit: I didn't see the new Day 2 outlook, but they include far NW CT in the slight risk area. If the cap breaks even the CT River Valley would be in a good spot. Thursday looks better... 6z GFS keeps a nice plume of remnant EML air overhead as wind fields increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 If the cap breaks even the CT River Valley would be in a good spot. Thursday looks better... 6z GFS keeps a nice plume of remnant EML air overhead as wind fields increase. Ryan--what's your take on the best timing for Thursday? I'll be heading home from Potsdam, NY, leaving around 11:30 or so, getting in around 5:00 I'd much rather enjoy things from home than in the car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Ryan--what's your take on the best timing for Thursday? I'll be heading home from Potsdam, NY, leaving around 11:30 or so, getting in around 5:00 I'd much rather enjoy things from home than in the car. Probably will be one of those messy days with scattered convection all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Pretty big tree snapped last night by my place was there any kind of wind tree actually looked pretty healthy very strange ! I had the same thing happen in my yard. Was breezy out but certainly not windy. Had a 80' section of pine tree snap. should take a damage pic for Wiz ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 very strange ! I had the same thing happen in my yard. Was breezy out but certainly not windy. Had a 80' section of pine tree snap. should take a damage pic for Wiz !Trees seem very loaded with foliage this year, was watching them sway yesterday,doesn't take much wind with the heavy summer loads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Wednesday sounds like a whole lot of nothing this far east. Typical. Hope it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Wednesday sounds like a whole lot of nothing this far east. Typical. Hope it changes. I will be here -- https://www.google.com/maps/place/Le+Raysville,+PA/@41.8369299,-76.1784339,7z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x89dab0d334d0b0b5:0x55342f6a9307b2ce hopefully measuring hailstones and sending back pics to make Wiz drool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Trees seem very loaded with foliage this year, was watching them sway yesterday,doesn't take much wind with the heavy summer loads. Especially when the tree took some not-readily-apparent injury/damage during the winter. When the mainmast is damaged, one generally finds out only upon setting all the sails. Sometimes wind isn't even needed; friends of mine were walking along a street near U.Maine Farmington a few years back on a flat calm late spring day when a large (2' diameter) limb came crashing out of a huge, almost fully leafed-out black willow, landing on the sidewalk where they'd passed about 30 seconds earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 The 15z SPC SREF has some pretty heft severe probabilities tomorrow and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Have to watch out for the possibility of some spinners too tomorrow and Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Any chance those storms in ny hold together for later this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Any chance those storms in ny hold together for later this evening? Can't rule out something sneaking into far western areas, however, the atmosphere will begin to stabilize rather rapidly once the sun goes down and there is very little shear in place to really help them sustain. Plus, the storms will be moving away from better forcing so they should begin to weaken pretty quickly I'd think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 man I'm really interested in the low level wind fields both tomorrow and Thursday...shear isn't through the roof and we're not dealing with a great deal of speed shear really, however, there are some hints that the low-level wind fields could become backed, especially in the valleys and if we achieve maximum instability values that would allow for strong enough updrafts which could rotate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Congrats ern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 May be tough to get anything to develop tomorrow though...a pocket of warming 700mb temperatures may move overhead and increase the cap strength...not good considering we don't have much of a forcing mechanism to work with...would have to hope that we either 1) reach the convective temp or 2) any activity west of us moves in and does the job...SPC WRF does have some stuff entering western sections near 0z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 The perfect gift for Wiz: http://www.thisiscolossal.com/2014/07/the-cloud-light-a-thunderstorm-in-your-house/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 The perfect gift for Wiz: http://www.thisiscolossal.com/2014/07/the-cloud-light-a-thunderstorm-in-your-house/ That's freaking awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I still think Thursday looks interesting from a quick look. I wouldn't rule out a PRE either Thursday evening/night across western areas especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I still think Thursday looks interesting from a quick look. I wouldn't rule out a PRE either Thursday evening/night across western areas especially. Right now it's just a matter of instability parameters..how much cloud debris/cover do we have? If we get what's being modeled though it will be a very active day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 It's be really nice if we could eek something out. There's nothing more satisfying on a humid summer eve than the atmosphere of an approaching storm. No severe needed...just a bit of thunder/lightning and a bit of outflow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 21z SPC SREF has 30-40 knots of bulk shear on Thursday and has LI values as low as -6C with 30% probs of >2000 J/KG of SBcape and MLcape, however, it does decrease MLcape > 2000 to 10%...not bad for that far out really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 This sounds decent, maybe we can have something to watch tomorrow. ...NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO VA AND NC... A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG HEATING LEADING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST ENHANCED LIFT RELATED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET AS IT PIVOTS NEWD INTO CANADA. THE CORRIDOR OF GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM PA INTO NY AND VT DURING THE DAY. THIS REGION WILL ALSO LIE BENEATH RELATIVELY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH A THREAT OF MIXED-MODE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. OTHER PERHAPS MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FARTHER S ACROSS WV...VA...AND PERHAPS WRN NC WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST BUT WITH WEAKER SHEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 HRRR does have activity around as early as 17-18z today, even across SNE. The SPC WRF develops activity as well but is a later show across NY. Today could be quite active across NY...wouldn't be surprised to see some svr probs increased a bit. SPC SREF goes pretty nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'm heading to Potsdam, NY later today. I can head through SVT in NYS or cross above BTV. I'm guessing the more time I'm in NYS the better my chances of running into storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I still think Thursday looks interesting from a quick look. I wouldn't rule out a PRE either Thursday evening/night across western areas especially. By western, are you speaking down toward FFD county and SW of there? I was under the impression that NW areas were most likely going to be missing this. GFS suggests otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 If someone could do me a big favor and post the 12z observed ALY and OKX soundings from the SPC site when they are out. I'll be at work and we aren't supposed to use our phones, however, if someone would be so kind to just post them here I can take like 5 seconds to quickly check. Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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