CT Rain Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The NAM has an impressive sultan signal. Probably will be a case of the haves and the have nots... someone will get drenched and many will probably see only a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The NAM has an impressive sultan signal. Probably will be a case of the haves and the have nots... someone will get drenched and many will probably see only a little. The NAM stalls the front over southern NY while a wave of low pressure develops over PA and tracks eastward. The 4k version is showing SBCAPE in the 2000-4000J/KG range from eastern PA into NYC with a bit less towards southern New England as the front never makes it quite that far north. Looks to be a case where New England receives some heavy stratiform rain while NYC and points southwest have a crack at severe. Timing looks good for once down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 The NAM stalls the front over southern NY while a wave of low pressure develops over PA and tracks eastward. The 4k version is showing SBCAPE in the 2000-4000J/KG range from eastern PA into NYC with a bit less towards southern New England as the front never makes it quite that far north. Looks to be a case where New England receives some heavy stratiform rain while NYC and points southwest have a crack at severe. Timing looks good for once down this way. SPC has the "see text" out. CAPE is skinny, but inverted V and increasing PWATs support a wet microburst or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 SPC has the "see text" out. CAPE is skinny, but inverted V and increasing PWATs support a wet microburst or two. Skinny perhaps, but this was quite an increase from previous runs. Too bad it's the NAM. And resulting squall line The models have been awful with convective precip this year so confidence is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 There is a nice signal there, I'm leaning more towards the localized side of things though. I guess it's possible the GFS is right and our northern half of the area gets 3-5". At least that might mean a few FFWs. Two short-fused warnings (SVR, FFW, TOR, SMW) all year so far. Yeah I don't know about the widespread look either. Just that it had a look if dumping on some NNE peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Next week could be an active severe week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Yeah I don't know about the widespread look either. Just that it had a look if dumping on some NNE peeps Yeah if that warm front aloft can hang out along the mountains, a little assist from upslope flow could produce some larger totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 SPC has the "see text" out. CAPE is skinny, but inverted V and increasing PWATs support a wet microburst or two. ...NRN PA/SRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... SRN INFLUENCE OF WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN U.S. WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW SFC FRONT TO SAG TO A POSITION FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...SWWD ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER BY 18Z...JUST PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STRONGEST HEATING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID 70S...SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...MODEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. ..DARROW.. 06/23/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 23, 2014 Share Posted June 23, 2014 That NAM run has the look of cne dumpage. Too far north for severe, right in the good spot for a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2014 Author Share Posted June 23, 2014 Cape profiles will be quite skinny given poor lapse rates. Shear aloft may be just adequate for an organized squall line...especially if capes verify but we would be looking at strong storms and maybe a few briefly reaching severe limits...will be a classic milti-cell example of one downdraft dominates, fizzles than another takes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 Next week could be an active severe week. Agreed with this. The 00z Euro would have some real potential on July 1st, but that is still quite far out. Still, with quite a strong jet projected across the northern portions of the country late this week into next, I'd tend to think that eventually something will make its way towards this region. Seems EML advection could be a possibility too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 24, 2014 Author Share Posted June 24, 2014 could see threat Thursday across eastern SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted June 24, 2014 Share Posted June 24, 2014 could see threat Thursday across eastern SNE CAPE looks significantly better (as per NAM) Wednesday: Thursday: Thursday sounding around BOS Helicity and shear are kind of pitiful, though. Feel like that's been the theme with this one. I worry about quick firing on Thursday though, there really is no capping of any sort going on. Garden variety with sctd wind/hail reports seems like a logical forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 MCD http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1147.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 HRRR, I think NW MA NW CT has a shot at some severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 HRRR drenches the GC crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Instability dependent, tomorrow could feature a pretty decent line of storms across RI into eastern MA. Actually looks like there could be an area of some decent (at least if enough cape develops) 0-6km shear with values right around 30 knots. Could have some enhanced convergence too with leftover boundaries and such. PWATS are quite high so torrential downpours/flash flooding is biggest threat but strong winds possible too as could see a wet microburst or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Instability dependent, tomorrow could feature a pretty decent line of storms across RI into eastern MA. Actually looks like there could be an area of some decent (at least if enough cape develops) 0-6km shear with values right around 30 knots. Could have some enhanced convergence too with leftover boundaries and such. PWATS are quite high so torrential downpours/flash flooding is biggest threat but strong winds possible too as could see a wet microburst or two. From your lips to God's ears, Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Heavy rain. Only one thunderclap so far. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Heavy rain. Only one thunderclap so far. .. Lots of rumbles and flashes here. Rain hasn't been too bad thus far. 69.9/69 .12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 HRRR drenches the GC crewHRRR again going a great job 3.24 so far in Monroe Ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 HRRR again going a great job 3.24 so far in Monroe Ma Wowzer!! Probably between .3-.4" here so far. RN+ 67.8/66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 One thunderclap. A few sprinkles in the Hubb so far Let's see if that sags south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Wowzer!! Probably between .3-.4" here so far. RN+ 67.8/66 reminds me of your winter qpf worries,you should get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 If the entire train misses to my NW, I'll be disgruntled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 If the entire train misses to my NW, I'll be disgruntled. Meh. I care more in winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Models did great pegging the Sultan Signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Meh. I care more in winter lol. Lol true, it's just muggy and some rain would be nice. It's been such snooze worthy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Models did great pegging the Sultan Signal. Yeah, however the heavy rain seems to have gone further south than the models had the past few days (HRRR and today's model runs aside). Even yesterday the GFS/NAM/GGEM had a pretty sharp cut off from GFL-RUT over to the Lakes Region in NH. Some of the heaviest totals from this event should be well south of that modeled cut-off....like ALB-Berks-Monadnocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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