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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Not at all. NW flow aloft and elevated instability will carry storms right to the coast.

ALB.gif

Maybe the coast of the Quabbin.  I don't see nearly enough instability here in ALB to keep em going in 60 degree air.  Wind direction has shifted more favorably, though, I'll give you that.

 

There is a lovely inverted V on that sounding, though.  Watch out for wind threat!

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I wonder if/when we'll see an MCD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0202 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY INCLUDING PARTS OF WRN LONG ISLAND/NRN   NJ/WRN VT/WRN MA/WRN CT   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 271902Z - 272000Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY   EVENING AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS ERN NY/NRN   NJ INTO PARTS OF WRN NEW ENGLAND.   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW TSTMS HAD   DEVELOPED OVER NRN UPSTATE NY IN NRN ESSEX AND SRN FRANKLIN   COUNTIES.  WEAKER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG A   SURFACE TROUGH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A FEW   SHOWERS OVER FAR ERN AND SERN NY...AND AN ISOLATED STORM LOCATED 40   W ALB.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION   AREA IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...INSTABILITY IS   WEAKER /500-1200 J PER KG/ ACROSS ERN NY/NRN NJ INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND   AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W/SW INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/   MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THIS LATTER FACTOR AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL   CONVERGENCE APPEAR TO BE LIMITING GREATER STORM DEVELOPMENT/   COVERAGE/INTENSITY THUS FAR.   LAST SEVERAL RUNS /12-16Z/ OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST THAT STORM   COVERAGE MAY TEND TO BE LIMITED ACROSS ERN NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND   AS DEPICTED BY ONGOING TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY.  THE EXCEPTION   SHOULD BE ACROSS SERN NY INTO PARTS OF NJ LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS   STORMS MOVE INTO THIS REGION FROM PA.   ..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 05/27/2014   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

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Solid updraft. ZDR column poking right through the center of the BWER.

 

Hook region definitely taking on the anticyclonic flag look of a strong RFD.

 

Yeah really nasty. Looks like it may be trying to tighten up.

 

About 100 knots of storm top divergence too. 

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I tried to get to that cell but the traffic on US-7 was horrible and there was no way to get there in time (that and with a southward component it was already moving somewhat away). Very frustrating!

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