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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Not too shabby a week for me to be in Iowa.

 

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM TRACK THIS WEEK IS HIGH
. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
OVERALL TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

 

Always throws my confidence in getting a flight out down the drain.  Easy for flights in/out of CID to get cancelled.  Benn stranded many times.
 

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  On 6/16/2014 at 4:01 PM, CT Rain said:

Both GFS and NAM look impressive for Wednesday. Steep lapse rates and a nice mid level jet max moving in. 

 

The timing seems a little off..it looked like WNW winds at 18z? Of course the GFS could be fast. We'll have to watch debris crap too.

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  On 6/16/2014 at 5:03 PM, CoastalWx said:

The timing seems a little off..it looked like WNW winds at 18z? Of course the GFS could be fast. We'll have to watch debris crap too.

 

Actually on the better look of the GFS that I saw...it's probably ok..esp for CT. Might have winds a bit more backed too as depicted. 

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I'd be more focused on potential pre-frontal trough and timing of that...not to say timing of the cold front isn't important either.  I don't really see much in the way though to prevent a faster fropa, however, if that trough up north is a bit more flat that could allow the front to slow it's froward progression, however, OTOH that would also make for less of a pressure gradient and reduced shear.  

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  On 6/16/2014 at 9:20 PM, weatherwiz said:

I'd be more focused on potential pre-frontal trough and timing of that...not to say timing of the cold front isn't important either.  I don't really see much in the way though to prevent a faster fropa, however, if that trough up north is a bit more flat that could allow the front to slow it's froward progression, however, OTOH that would also make for less of a pressure gradient and reduced shear.  

 

Well that's what I mean. Euro seems a bit fast too. Might be able to grab something perhaps Wed morning?

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  On 6/16/2014 at 9:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well that's what I mean. Euro seems a bit fast too. Might be able to grab something perhaps Wed morning?

 

Definitely can't discount that...we have had events before in which we had severe begin as early as 15z-16z...as long as you have the ingredients already in place.  Typically when dealing with convection that early you run into the issue of not realizing the capes but if we're dealing with steep lapse rates and decent dews, we can certainly have sufficient cape by 15z, especially if we have full sun or near full sun since early AM.  

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  On 6/16/2014 at 9:38 PM, weatherwiz said:

Definitely can't discount that...we have had events before in which we had severe begin as early as 15z-16z...as long as you have the ingredients already in place.  Typically when dealing with convection that early you run into the issue of not realizing the capes but if we're dealing with steep lapse rates and decent dews, we can certainly have sufficient cape by 15z, especially if we have full sun or near full sun since early AM.  

 

Euro has a more MCS look is what I meant..like near dawn over NNE, but that may not be a bad spot since they love to roll right a bit. Overall..aftn convection seems like it has a few questions to be answered.

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  On 6/16/2014 at 9:43 PM, CoastalWx said:

Euro has a more MCS look is what I meant..like near dawn over NNE, but that may not be a bad spot since they love to roll right a bit. Overall..aftn convection seems like it has a few questions to be answered.

 

Really?  Well that would be another flag to throw in this mess...how strong of an MCS are we talking about?  Always have to worry about subsidence in the wake of them.

 

  On 6/16/2014 at 9:44 PM, CoastalWx said:

This has the look of one of those BDL and points SW events in the aftn..if there were to be something.

 

Very well possible...in fact, SPC SREF sort of hints at that idea.

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Severe watch is up for  my locale in IA with tornado watches up in the adjoining county.  I'm on the fourth floor, in the heartland so in the words of "The Who", I can see for miles and miles should anything of note take place.  Hell, even a light show out here would be so much better than back at home with the visibility.

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Warning is up.  Fortunately, my hotel is not a mobile home.

 

 

AT 942 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VAN HORNE...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN KEYSTONE.

  IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

 

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  On 6/17/2014 at 3:02 AM, moneypitmike said:

Warning is up. Fortunately, my hotel is not a mobile home.

AT 942 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VAN HORNE...

AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN KEYSTONE.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO

MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

Stay safe.

My sister in law is attending her first year of vet school at Iowa State in Ames, pretty much smack dab center of the State.

Amazingly, it appears to be a bit of a tornado hole. Kind of like Springfield for snow, or southern RI.

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  On 6/17/2014 at 3:08 AM, JC in CT said:

Jesus Mike, get to cover. There is a strong couplet just to the south of the warning area as well. Not to mention the straight line winds.

 

The siren's back off for now.  I"ve been here many times for the weekly tests--it's a little different at night.

 

This hotlel is great though.....I've got about a 12' floor to ceiling window, so awesome views of the show.

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  On 6/17/2014 at 3:10 AM, moneypitmike said:

The siren's back off for now. I"ve been here many times for the weekly tests--it's a little different at night.

This hotlel is great though.....I've got about a 12' floor to ceiling window, so awesome views of the show.

Just a heads up though

zaretu5u.jpg

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