weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Both GFS and NAM look impressive for Wednesday. Steep lapse rates and a nice mid level jet max moving in. What threats are we looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Not too shabby a week for me to be in Iowa. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON JUN 16 2014THE CONFIDENCE THAT THE AREA WILL BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE ORGANIZEDTHUNDERSTORM TRACK THIS WEEK IS HIGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THEOVERALL TIMING/PLACEMENT OF FEATURES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICHCOULD BE SIGNIFICANT. Always throws my confidence in getting a flight out down the drain. Easy for flights in/out of CID to get cancelled. Benn stranded many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Hope something pops up. It's pretty sad when a thread on convection takes 6 days to finish one page, in mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Hope something pops up. It's pretty sad when a thread on convection takes 6 days to finish one page, in mid June. LOL. I think you can take the three most active threads combined and get little more than a page these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Both GFS and NAM look impressive for Wednesday. Steep lapse rates and a nice mid level jet max moving in. The timing seems a little off..it looked like WNW winds at 18z? Of course the GFS could be fast. We'll have to watch debris crap too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 The timing seems a little off..it looked like WNW winds at 18z? Of course the GFS could be fast. We'll have to watch debris crap too. Actually on the better look of the GFS that I saw...it's probably ok..esp for CT. Might have winds a bit more backed too as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 I'd be more focused on potential pre-frontal trough and timing of that...not to say timing of the cold front isn't important either. I don't really see much in the way though to prevent a faster fropa, however, if that trough up north is a bit more flat that could allow the front to slow it's froward progression, however, OTOH that would also make for less of a pressure gradient and reduced shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43854-severe-potential-june-14th-19th/?p=2977412 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 I'd be more focused on potential pre-frontal trough and timing of that...not to say timing of the cold front isn't important either. I don't really see much in the way though to prevent a faster fropa, however, if that trough up north is a bit more flat that could allow the front to slow it's froward progression, however, OTOH that would also make for less of a pressure gradient and reduced shear. Well that's what I mean. Euro seems a bit fast too. Might be able to grab something perhaps Wed morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Awesome video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Well that's what I mean. Euro seems a bit fast too. Might be able to grab something perhaps Wed morning? Definitely can't discount that...we have had events before in which we had severe begin as early as 15z-16z...as long as you have the ingredients already in place. Typically when dealing with convection that early you run into the issue of not realizing the capes but if we're dealing with steep lapse rates and decent dews, we can certainly have sufficient cape by 15z, especially if we have full sun or near full sun since early AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Definitely can't discount that...we have had events before in which we had severe begin as early as 15z-16z...as long as you have the ingredients already in place. Typically when dealing with convection that early you run into the issue of not realizing the capes but if we're dealing with steep lapse rates and decent dews, we can certainly have sufficient cape by 15z, especially if we have full sun or near full sun since early AM. Euro has a more MCS look is what I meant..like near dawn over NNE, but that may not be a bad spot since they love to roll right a bit. Overall..aftn convection seems like it has a few questions to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 This has the look of one of those BDL and points SW events in the aftn..if there were to be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2014 Author Share Posted June 16, 2014 Euro has a more MCS look is what I meant..like near dawn over NNE, but that may not be a bad spot since they love to roll right a bit. Overall..aftn convection seems like it has a few questions to be answered. Really? Well that would be another flag to throw in this mess...how strong of an MCS are we talking about? Always have to worry about subsidence in the wake of them. This has the look of one of those BDL and points SW events in the aftn..if there were to be something. Very well possible...in fact, SPC SREF sort of hints at that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Just incredible to watch as its happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 16, 2014 Share Posted June 16, 2014 Severe watch is up for my locale in IA with tornado watches up in the adjoining county. I'm on the fourth floor, in the heartland so in the words of "The Who", I can see for miles and miles should anything of note take place. Hell, even a light show out here would be so much better than back at home with the visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Heavy, heavy yincoming. Continual lightning....really beautiful. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dvn&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Heavy, heavy yincoming. Continual lightning....really beautiful. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dvn&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no a) location? pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Heavy, heavy yincoming. Continual lightning....really beautiful. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dvn&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Enjoy! Calm and quiet here in the foothills of GC. Beautiful wx for June I might add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 a) location? pics? I'm in Cedar Rapids--about 5 miles north of the dot on the map. I've taken a minute or so of the flashes--right now, it's all behind the clouds and the rumbles are just starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Warning is up. Fortunately, my hotel is not a mobile home. AT 942 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VAN HORNE... AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN KEYSTONE. IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Tornado sirens are going off!! Warning is up!!!!! (I'm like wiz iwtth mhy exclanation points tonight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Warning is up. Fortunately, my hotel is not a mobile home. AT 942 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VAN HORNE... AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN KEYSTONE. IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. Stay safe.My sister in law is attending her first year of vet school at Iowa State in Ames, pretty much smack dab center of the State. Amazingly, it appears to be a bit of a tornado hole. Kind of like Springfield for snow, or southern RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Tornado sirens are going off!!Jesus Mike, get to cover. There is a strong couplet just to the south of the warning area as well. Not to mention the straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Jesus Mike, get to cover. There is a strong couplet just to the south of the warning area as well. Not to mention the straight line winds. The siren's back off for now. I"ve been here many times for the weekly tests--it's a little different at night. This hotlel is great though.....I've got about a 12' floor to ceiling window, so awesome views of the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 The siren's back off for now. I"ve been here many times for the weekly tests--it's a little different at night. This hotlel is great though.....I've got about a 12' floor to ceiling window, so awesome views of the show. Just a heads up though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 17, 2014 Share Posted June 17, 2014 Clear inflow notch due east of Cedar Rapids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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