Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion

[Professional Lurker]

That would be the best way to look at it, haha. You have to be able to compare it to something.

Yeah, but you also have to take into consideration where wiz is at the time of the outbreak. ...If he's chasing in pa or at a math class or into his 9th 40, he won't be asking for the town and street of every downed twig. That's gotta skew the numbers!

(Wiz, I think you're the best. ..)

[Typhoon Tip]

The conv season in SNE has been quiet overall. One cell the moves across 2 towns doesn't justify an above normal season across SNE. Two other mets stated the same thing earlier.

Firstly, is "convective season" really May in New England? No. Not in the 30 years I've lived here. Statistically that is true also. Secondly one would be rare to find such a photogenic supercell at any time of year around here, let alone this time of year, and one that was filmed by others spread out over vaster area then a mere "two towns". I don't care what other mets say. I'm pretty objective about this. Maybe expectations are/were a little too high? It may not be above average, but relative a colder than normal spring it's been interesting

But whatever. U got move away from the ocean man.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow, that's like a Great Plains cell!

Pretty nice tornadic supercell near FSD right now. Had a classic Zdr arch along the southern edge of the FFD region.

Zdr

zdr.png

Zh

ref.png

I was awe struck.

[Typhoon Tip]

There's a relatively objective way to do this--

Average number of severe reports in May for southern New England (roughly MA, CT, RI, southern NH) is 25.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/BOX.html

This May there were 18 (CT 7, MA 6, NH 4, RI 1):

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/1405_summary.html

I know the average includes parts of VT and NY, but I imagine its still a pretty good representation.

Good numbers! Thanks In scooters defense I am particular to rt 2 corridor in that. Stats are tough when it comes to convection due to scales

[OceanStWx]

The reports are going to go up every year with more and more spotters. Now you have everybody and their mom calling in every downed rotted limb that fell.  Overall, it's been relatively quiet, esp outside of CT. You could probably say CT has had close to an average season so far. You could add the Berks too.

 

I peeked at BOX's warnings in May by year since 2006. High of 26 (2010), low of 6 (2006 and 2011 go figure), average of 15. 2014 had 12 SVRs, same as 2013, and 2012. 2014 also had the second latest warning of the time period.

 

GYX is just a sad history in May. Average of 6 warnings in May, 1 this year, but have been shut out twice (2008, 2013).

[CoastalWx]

Firstly, is "convective season" really May in New England? No. Not in the 30 years I've lived here. Statistically that is true also. Secondly one would be rare to find such a photogenic supercell at any time of year around here, let alone this time of year, and one that was filmed by others spread out over vaster area then a mere "two towns". I don't care what other mets say. I'm pretty objective about this. Maybe expectations are/were a little too high? It may not be above average, but relative a colder than normal spring it's been interesting

But whatever. U got move away from the ocean man.

There are places to my south that have had more tstm days. An isolated space ship is great for the several people that saw it, but it doesn't really speak for the whole area. All I'm saying is that it's been relatively tame in this region so far. I don't think you can dispute that. Count yourself lucky to see that awesome Meso.

[weatherwiz]

I peeked at BOX's warnings in May by year since 2006. High of 26 (2010), low of 6 (2006 and 2011 go figure), average of 15. 2014 had 12 SVRs, same as 2013, and 2012. 2014 also had the second latest warning of the time period.

 

GYX is just a sad history in May. Average of 6 warnings in May, 1 this year, but have been shut out twice (2008, 2013).

 

What year did the warning criteria change?  Was it late 2000's?  Would be interesting to know the AVG's since that time

[CoastalWx]

I peeked at BOX's warnings in May by year since 2006. High of 26 (2010), low of 6 (2006 and 2011 go figure), average of 15. 2014 had 12 SVRs, same as 2013, and 2012. 2014 also had the second latest warning of the time period.

GYX is just a sad history in May. Average of 6 warnings in May, 1 this year, but have been shut out twice (2008, 2013).

May 2010 was good. I had a storm bring pretty much nickel size hail when I lived in Dorchester. Up the street in Quincy had ping pongs.

[weatherwiz]

May 2010 was good. I had a storm bring pretty much nickel size hail when I lived in Dorchester. Up the street in Quincy had ping pongs.

 

May 26th (or 27th) was sick!  Had two separate severe storms here in West Hartford in the span of an hour...1'' hail and then damaging winds....at NIGHT

[OceanStWx]

What year did the warning criteria change?  Was it late 2000's?  Would be interesting to know the AVG's since that time

 

Jan 5, 2010. So really that year was the busiest May, and there were low years both before and after the change. I suspect that even storms that produce nickels and dimes are also going to be strong enough to prompt a SVR for winds. So I doubt there has been much change to the average.

[weatherwiz]

Jan 5, 2010. So really that year was the busiest May, and there were low years both before and after the change. I suspect that even storms that produce nickels and dimes are also going to be strong enough to prompt a SVR for winds. So I doubt there has been much change to the average.

 

That's a pretty good point...makes a great deal of sense.  

[OceanStWx]

That's a pretty good point...makes a great deal of sense.  

 

Hail isn't quite our climatology like the High Plains, nor do we often get elevated storms that spit out hail only like in the Midwest.

 

I would say we get a lot of 45-50 kt SVRs, just because they can still do tree damage and are a hazard to those outdoors.

[CT Rain]

Hail isn't quite our climatology like the High Plains, nor do we often get elevated storms that spit out hail only like in the Midwest.

I would say we get a lot of 45-50 kt SVRs, just because they can still do tree damage and are a hazard to those outdoors.

45 knots may be generous too lol

[CoastalWx]

Locally, the last two seasons or so have been woefully boring in the tstm dept. I know it may not be the same in other places, but eastern MA as a whole has been relatively quiet. Hopefully July and August pick up some steam.

[Typhoon Tip]

Locally, the last two seasons or so have been woefully boring in the tstm dept. I know it may not be the same in other places, but eastern MA as a whole has been relatively quiet. Hopefully July and August pick up some steam.

 

This much I agree with. One hobby I have is cloud videography and there's been a drought of scenarios for which to film that has persisted across a couple of years..

 

Typically, the best are those clear air instability days, where you get crispy TCU that look like cauliflower heads, and their edges are not obscured by haze or pal air in general.  That meso shot above was just such an evening.  It was like sharp blue sky etched by meso edge.   Anyway, when I first bought my HD Sony I got a chance to set it up on tri-pod from an elevated vantage point that overlooks the southern extension of the Nashoba Valley;  a supercell was just N of Mt Watchusett.  Fantastic definition between the southern edge of the CB and clear air, and the bottom had occasional funnel clouds that poked down and then spun away.  

[CT Rain]

Wow... look at the intense rotation over Tolland during the infamous fakenado.

 

[BillB]

What year did the warning criteria change?  Was it late 2000's?  Would be interesting to know the AVG's since that time

 

The 1-inch criteria started in 2010.

[Brian5671]

Wow... look at the intense rotation over Tolland during the infamous fakenado.

 

who cares

[Mikehobbyst]

The Midwest get BIG BOOMERS, we get the table scrap boomers.  New England best severe is usually like a see text day in Oklahoma per potential comparison only.  Big severe does happen in New England, once every couple of years..  New England severe is like a 110 lb weakling, and the Oklahoma severe is like a 225 lb muscle bound machine.  Rattling windows vs. taking them out.  I am sure Oklahoma severe has taken toilet bowls and fridges on further linear distances than some folks ever travel in their life. If I lived in Tornado alley, I would hope to never see true "hell", under a 65K foot super cell structure ever...... I will take the marine tainted crappy cape and LI's any day on the northeast coast.  I like our house, and love family too much for a severe tornadic disaster.  Glad we are not in tornado "hell's" alley.  Midwest severe can be chilling and eats at the core, especially tornado footage.  Do you really think having frequent SVR is really worth the risk?  I am sure folks are terrified by those high risk and Public outbreak messages.  I'd be terrified.  The text of a PDS tornado watch, has "hell" written all over it.

[tamarack]

 

GYX is just a sad history in May. Average of 6 warnings in May, 1 this year, but have been shut out twice (2008, 2013).

May isn't much for convection as a whole and is late-loaded, at least looking at my thunder-day records over the past 16 yr (and MBY manages to avoid svr in any case.)

May:...1.4 (Of 22 days with thunder, 10 have occurred 5/28-31.)

June:..4.1

July:..4.4

Aug:...3.4

Sept:..0.9

other 7:..1.7

Total:...15.9

[Modfan]

Is that a SBF causing convection around 128?

[CoastalWx]

Is that a SBF causing convection around 128?

 

 actually right along a BDF...but there is little lightning. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like some +++RA at home. Grass will be pleased.

[CoastalWx]

Some broad rotation in that cell over Weymouth. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Severe warning for Norfolk county

Yawn

[CoastalWx]

Severe warning for Norfolk county

Yawn

Just glad the grass got a drink. Surprisingly lack of lightning.

[forkyfork]

this would be interesting

[CoastalWx]

Might be better chances if we can get a good push ENE of that heat dome.

[moneypitmike]

Might be better chances if we can get a good push ENE of that heat dome.

 

I'll sacrifice chances of severe to keep that away.

[OceanStWx]

SAILS is being installed today.

 

Now we just need some convection...