CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Looks like a lousy day pike south tomorrow. Heaviest rain probably grazes south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 On the other hand, weekend looks splendid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Chicago was supposed to get slammed, but as usual..these stupid lows usually have too much precip on the nrn edge when convection screws around with the processes driving precip. Makes me wonder about tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 the euro made me think spinups were possible thursday morning south of nyc. oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 the euro made me think spinups were possible thursday morning south of nyc. oh well It ended up spinning up a BS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Sky pretty dark and something popped up on radar. At the bus stop...hope I don't get hit by lighting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 Cell blowing up right over Hartford. Big drops falling. Luckily the bus stops right in front of the school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 4, 2014 Author Share Posted June 4, 2014 That was quick...came down big for about 15 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Exceedingly heavy rainfall during the commute home from South Windsor, with lots of local road-highway flooding. I followed the rainstorm home and rain just ended here about 5 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Nice cell for the Rte 6 farming cooridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Loop I made from the strong microburst in New Milford, CT on 5/27. Going back and looking at the RAP proximity soundings it's actually not too much of a surprise the storm wasn't able to produce a spinner. Relatively high LCL heights (1-1.5km) were likely what prevented it from happening. Relatively dry boundary layer though kept DCAPE fairly high on the otherhand promoting the widespread 50 knot gusts from the storm's RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 What a boring year for convection so far...and that's on top of our normal boredom. All my rain so far since May has been all synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 What a boring year for convection so far...and that's on top of our normal boredom. All my rain so far since May has been all synoptic.Had a fantastic storm last week and absolutely torrential downpour yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Had a fantastic storm last week and absolutely torrential downpour yesterday morning. I've had downpours...just little thunder. Got a big drink today which was good for the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 What a boring year for convection so far...and that's on top of our normal boredom. All my rain so far since May has been all synoptic. I posted a fantastic few images of a meso I photographed over Mem weekend... I also experienced inch diameter hail with it as it passed by. For me, expectations for this region of the country make this way above normal. To each his own though. fyi... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I posted a fantastic few images of a meso I photographed over Mem weekend... I also experienced inch diameter hail with it as it passed by. For me, expectations for this region of the country make this way above normal. To each his own though. fyi... meso.jpg Yeah I saw those...awesome images. But for the 99% of the rest of us...meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Also, most machine guidance is 85 to a tick shy of 90 for much of the region both Saturday and Sunday, over lows that are a degree or two above average. Probably make those days about +5 or 6 as a mean positive departure. That may be "seasonally warmer than average", but like I stressed last week, we've definitely shedded the propensity to return to colder than normal - at least. Today's refreshing 60F strata rain is a far improvement over the 42F events previously suffered. And I don't believe that is purely season-change dependent. This pattern is a new paradigm, as systems now approach more normally from the west. They tote Pac modified air that is still mild on back-sides, and offer hints at above normal heat; unlike the trough-tuck thing from the N. Whether that leads to a June that's above normal remains to be seen. Right now I would only guess +.5 to +2 on the month. The reason is, the structure on the maps may look typically June, but there is a background global tendency to always be above the 30-year norm during patterns that resemble normalcy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Yeah I saw those...awesome images. But for the 99% of the rest of us...meh. I have a little problem with that -- 99% of the rest of us got jack squat out of the June event three years ago, and that was an upper end storm. Point being, no region anywhere gets 99% impacted by convective severity so I'm not sure of your reasoning there. It's in the area, it's above normal... That's what we had/have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I posted a fantastic few images of a meso I photographed over Mem weekend... I also experienced inch diameter hail with it as it passed by. For me, expectations for this region of the country make this way above normal. To each his own though. fyi... meso.jpg Wow, that's like a Great Plains cell! Pretty nice tornadic supercell near FSD right now. Had a classic Zdr arch along the southern edge of the FFD region. Zdr Zh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I have a little problem with that -- 99% of the rest of us got jack squat out of the June event three years ago, and that was an upper end storm. Point being, no region anywhere gets 99% impacted by convective severity so I'm not sure of your reasoning there. It's in the area, it's above normal... That's what we had/have. The conv season in SNE has been quiet overall. One cell the moves across 2 towns doesn't justify an above normal season across SNE. Two other mets stated the same thing earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Glad I was part of the 1 percent lol I have a little problem with that -- 99% of the rest of us got jack squat out of the June event three years ago, and that was an upper end storm. Point being, no region anywhere gets 99% impacted by convective severity so I'm not sure of your reasoning there. It's in the area, it's above normal... That's what we had/have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 I have a little problem with that -- 99% of the rest of us got jack squat out of the June event three years ago, and that was an upper end storm. Point being, no region anywhere gets 99% impacted by convective severity so I'm not sure of your reasoning there. It's in the area, it's above normal... That's what we had/have. If its in the area, its above normal? I guess it depends on how you want to quantify above normal convection. Is it by measure of strength of certain individual storms? I would think it would be based on number of events. A couple high end cells shouldn't mean its an above normal season, IMO. A big TOR would be an interesting event, but if you have a summer with very little convection but had an F3 tornado, I don't think that's "above normal"...that's like getting lucky for one day. I would think you'd want to see several days with severe and at least a couple widespread days where you've got like 6 warnings going on at once (like multi-page storm reports from the NWS)...heck I don't think we've seen a Watch yet have we? I'd say it's been fairly quiet so far, but that's not to take away from the cool cell you saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 If its in the area, its above normal? I guess it depends on how you want to quantify above normal convection. Is it by measure of strength of certain individual storms? I would think it would be based on number of events. A couple high end cells shouldn't mean its an above normal season, IMO. A big TOR would be an interesting event, but if you have a summer with very little convection but had an F3 tornado, I don't think that's "above normal"...that's like getting lucky for one day. I would think you'd want to see several days with severe and at least a couple widespread days where you've got like 6 warnings going on at once (like multi-page storm reports from the NWS)...heck I don't think we've seen a Watch yet have we? I'd say it's been fairly quiet so far, but that's not to take away from the cool cell you saw. I'm just speaking as a whole. It's been pretty quiet across SNE in terms of tstm days...and that likely included NNE too...at least part of it. It's nothing IMBY...it's pretty much fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 There's a relatively objective way to do this-- Average number of severe reports in May for southern New England (roughly MA, CT, RI, southern NH) is 25. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/BOX.html This May there were 18 (CT 7, MA 6, NH 4, RI 1): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/1405_summary.html I know the average includes parts of VT and NY, but I imagine its still a pretty good representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Also, most machine guidance is 85 to a tick shy of 90 for much of the region both Saturday and Sunday, over lows that are a degree or two above average. Probably make those days about +5 or 6 as a mean positive departure. That may be "seasonally warmer than average", but like I stressed last week, we've definitely shedded the propensity to return to colder than normal - at least. Today's refreshing 60F strata rain is a far improvement over the 42F events previously suffered. And I don't believe that is purely season-change dependent. This pattern is a new paradigm, as systems now approach more normally from the west. They tote Pac modified air that is still mild on back-sides, and offer hints at above normal heat; unlike the trough-tuck thing from the N. Whether that leads to a June that's above normal remains to be seen. Right now I would only guess +.5 to +2 on the month. The reason is, the structure on the maps may look typically June, but there is a background global tendency to always be above the 30-year norm during patterns that resemble normalcy. And climo here in NNE is still low 70's so anything lower 80's and above is 10+ departure on highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 5, 2014 Author Share Posted June 5, 2014 My comments here have nothing to do with what has been said about this season and opinions expressed but when I comes to convection people (not just here) have too much expectations...when it comes to convection you can't be IMBY crazy...you have to be very open minded and subjective about it. Convection happens on the small scale so the reality is less people will be affected. Even out west in the big events there are areas which get missed and don't see much action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 There's a relatively objective way to do this-- Average number of severe reports in May for southern New England (roughly MA, CT, RI, southern NH) is 25. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/BOX.html This May there were 18 (CT 7, MA 6, NH 4, RI 1): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/1405_summary.html I know the average includes parts of VT and NY, but I imagine its still a pretty good representation. That would be the best way to look at it, haha. You have to be able to compare it to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 The reports are going to go up every year with more and more spotters. Now you have everybody and their mom calling in every downed rotted limb that fell. Overall, it's been relatively quiet, esp outside of CT. You could probably say CT has had close to an average season so far. You could add the Berks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 The reports are going to go up every year with more and more spotters. Now you have everybody and their mom calling in every downed rotted limb that fell. Overall, it's been relatively quiet, esp outside of CT. You could probably say CT has had close to an average season so far. You could add the Berks too. Well yeah, but in the absence of any other real way to compare numbers, this is probably the best comparison. Plus it still proves the point that it was relatively quiet compared to average (72% of average) (and would be more so if you were somehow able to correct it for increase in spotters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 The reports are going to go up every year with more and more spotters. Now you have everybody and their mom calling in every downed rotted limb that fell. Overall, it's been relatively quiet, esp outside of CT. You could probably say CT has had close to an average season so far. You could add the Berks too. It's been really quiet here too. We had 2 severe days that were super isolated. Most of the state hasn't seen anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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