weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 The 9z SPC SREF continues to be rather interesting. Has some of the highest instability juxtaposed with some of the stronger shear, across the Hudson into western MA and western CT ahead of the cold front approaching from the east, however, you have the BDCF approaching from the NW and associated with high helicity values...now also include southerly channeling flow at the sfc. Think we should see at least one great storm somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 Not sure I agree with the bolded from BOX SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH THESEBACKDOOR FRONTS AS INSTABILITY IS USUALLY LACKING. TODAY IS NOEXCEPTION WITH DEW PTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. I think typically we don't usually have great shear to work with and typically lift associated with them is fairly meager. I can recall times having some decent instability in place with BDCF's approaching but shear was non-existent or lapse rates were nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Not sure I agree with the bolded from BOX SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH THESE BACKDOOR FRONTS AS INSTABILITY IS USUALLY LACKING. TODAY IS NO EXCEPTION WITH DEW PTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. I think typically we don't usually have great shear to work with and typically lift associated with them is fairly meager. I can recall times having some decent instability in place with BDCF's approaching but shear was non-existent or lapse rates were nada Regardless I think instability is going to hold this event back. Not looking great IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 Regardless I think instability is going to hold this event back. Not looking great IMO. Yeah models aren't really generating a great deal...would have loved even 750-1200 MLcape but that even seems hard to come by with dews only in the mid to upper 50's. HRRR does develop activity but a bit unorganized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 My friend and I have decided to just stay here in West Hartford for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 dI wish we haf those 60 dews they have in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 You're not throwing in the towel just yet are you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 You're not throwing in the towel just yet are you ? No...I still think we'll see some action, it's just the threat for anything svr is probably on the low side. We'll still probably go after some stuff and perhaps get some good pics of cloud features and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 I wonder where the BD is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 I have a question which is just more out of curiosity than anything. Across western/central/southern PA dewpoints are into the lower and even mid-60's. In fact, 3-HR dewpoint changes across central/eastern PA are about 4F. Just wondering why we really aren't seeing any of this bleed into like at least eastern NY, unless it is but rather slowly. Perhaps if the push of theta-e air was stronger? Anyways, as the cold front approaches from the west and as the BDCF continues pushing SW, is it possible that some of those dews may pool into SE NY or into SW CT and maybe rise like 3F or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 SLIGHT RISK!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 Friend and I are going to probably go and stay in North Canaan and see what happens. Allows us to go S and SW...even north if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 GFS is just so far out there with dew points... it's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 GFS is just so far out there with dew points... it's ridiculous. WTF is it doing with the 6hr QPF from 12z-18z???? Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 12z SPC WRF blows up a ton of stuff all over. I was a little surprised, seems aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 GFS is just so far out there with dew points... it's ridiculous. yeah why is that? Any idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 12z SPC WRF blows up a ton of stuff all over. I was a little surprised, seems aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 Hoping we don't have to end up being like further south than New Canaan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 ughhh everything on the 15z HRRR is out except composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 Well time to hit the road...North Canaan here we come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Looks like a storm is about to pop to my west sky is real dark now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 If the 15z HRRR composite simulation is out can someone post an image for 22z? Probably a pain to do look mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 It's the most... wonderful tiiiiime... of the year... Riding the front here in central MA. Hoping the WRF is sniffing something out, otherwise, I await chances Friday aftn. Looks a little bit better lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Whoever is on the edge of the BDF should get some good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 It's the most... wonderful tiiiiime... of the year... Riding the front here in central MA. Hoping the WRF is sniffing something out, otherwise, I await chances Friday aftn. Looks a little bit better lately. Friday looks like a decent cold pool hailer day perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 27, 2014 Author Share Posted May 27, 2014 Enjoy! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Whoever is on the edge of the BDF should get some good stuff Nah, storm motion takes em over the front after they initiate, so anything it forces will get killed off by the cold air. If the motion was along it, it would be much more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Friday looks like a decent cold pool hailer day perhaps Good, make up for my miss on Sunday... I hope... Good luck chasing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 27, 2014 Share Posted May 27, 2014 Nah, storm motion takes em over the front after they initiate, so anything it forces will get killed off by the cold air. If the motion was along it, it would be much more interesting.Not at all. NW flow aloft and elevated instability will carry storms right to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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