Wonderdog Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z GFS has Arthur hugging the coast all the to New England. Cape Hatteras virginia beach get hit with rain then next in line is NYC and New England. seems to hug the coast more so today on the models than it did yesterday. Probably something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Just about the worst possible map for holiday OBX vacationers. I can hear the collective screaming and crying from here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 Just about the worst possible map for holiday OBX vacationers. I can hear the collective screaming and crying from here.... nhc.JPG My family is in hatteras right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 An ensemble or two makes this interest for Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 An ensemble or two makes this interest for Ocean City, MD. I would hedge towards the right side of the envelope if anything. UL setup leading in looks pretty bad for the left side of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You may already be aware, but that is 06z Ensemble. Here is one member of the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Just about the worst possible map for holiday OBX vacationers. I can hear the collective screaming and crying from here.... nhc.JPG In and out in a day at the beginning of most vacations with minimal impact overall. Folks will be back on the beach in a day or so and it'll be like nothing ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 12z HWRF http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014070112/hwrf_ref_01L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 In and out in a day at the beginning of most vacations with minimal impact overall. Folks will be back on the beach in a day or so and it'll be like nothing ever happened. I'm not going to the OBX but I am going to OC, MD on Thursday for the weekend....I am hoping it moves thru Thursday night maybe with some excitement, then we're good by Friday afternoon. I'll need some fast forward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 In and out in a day at the beginning of most vacations with minimal impact overall. Folks will be back on the beach in a day or so and it'll be like nothing ever happened. I would guess that as well. OBX has a chance at a mod-high impact. Even a cat 1 with just offshore track would be disruptive to property. An overhead or just inside track could wash out plenty of roads. If I was headed to OBX I would be pretty nervous about a ruined vaca attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We're on OBX in Waves for the week. Keep Arthur away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We're on OBX in Waves for the week. Keep Arthur away. Seems fitting to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 We're on OBX in Waves for the week. Keep Arthur away. Road washouts in that section of the OBX are fairly common during storms. As I'm sure you know, there's just a small swath of dune/beach separating the road and ocean south of the Oregon Inlet bridge. Even less land south of Waves/Salvo heading towards Avon. They've had to replace sections of road at least twice in the last 2-3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GET OUT THE MEHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 GET OUT THE MEHS. Time for some i-95 weenie blend. Hurricane Diana analog coming up, days and days of clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 NHC gives DC-east a 10% chance of 39 mph winds. Before it was 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 whatever Arthur does, I'd prefer it takes its time I'm going down OBX in 2 weeks and the slower it moves the greater the chance nothing follows it, though I suppose the odds of a quick tailing tropical system are pretty low this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Road washouts in that section of the OBX are fairly common during storms. As I'm sure you know, there's just a small swath of dune/beach separating the road and ocean south of the Oregon Inlet bridge. Even less land south of Waves/Salvo heading towards Avon. They've had to replace sections of road at least twice in the last 2-3 years. Yep, this area is very prone to road damage from storms. Dare County EM met tonight but made no decision on evacuations. We have a Sunday-Sunday rental and hope we don't get evacuated. Saturday looks to be a nice beach day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'm all about laying the tracks at this pt. Epic flood late season ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Bring it. This is blasphemy here, but I'd take a snowless season if it meant rocking and rolling through a cane. Of course, that won't happen in this situation, but if we can get a PRE I'll be happy. Inches and inches of rain or bust. Trading snow for hyped up tropical with typical meh verification? Your dead to me. Foot of ice man. Foot of ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Arthur makes me uneasy becasue the front is easily strong enough to slap it out but the front has to get here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Looks like Arthur makes "landfall" at OBX (or close to it) per the 00z GFS run tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Models ticked west overall, including the HWRF and GEM. Waiting for GEFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 Well, I would not get my hopes up west of the Chesapeake. That is just the nature of the beast. The latest trend is to speed up the system and slow or amplify the front, which means a latter right turn. Can't find any good analogs for this setup. We are lucky enough to have it this close already, if you're looking for interesting weather. I can live with 1 day of lost business for something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 If it means seeing a legit cane, I'd take a torch all winter If I had the choice between a snowstorm/cane scenario, I wonder how much snow would make me take the KU... I'd also sacrifice two consecutive winters for a true cat3 w/ track just west of DC...yeah I'm stoopid like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'd also sacrifice two consecutive winters for a true cat3 w/ track just west of DC...yeah I'm stoopid like that Oh wow... Give me a long, snowy, drastically cold winter all day. Hurricanes are nothing special and are more destructive. Yeah, people can die during snowstorms, but Hurricanes are probably historically more destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I hope southern MD gets 3 inches of rain (we need it!) while BWI, DCA, and all points north/west spend the day looking at cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 I hope southern MD gets 3 inches of rain (we need it!) while BWI, DCA, and all points north/west spend the day looking at cirrus clouds. Fine by me. Rain just ruins a perfectly good day at the pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted July 2, 2014 Share Posted July 2, 2014 NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 2, 2014 Author Share Posted July 2, 2014 I'd also sacrifice two consecutive winters for a true cat3 w/ track just west of DC...yeah I'm stoopid like that I hold this same view, but I had a bunch of people jump down my throat for saying that. We love weather so why would I not get excited for a true cane experience around here? More retorical than anything because the same people will tell me snow isn't "dangerous." I can't help it if hurricanes are my favorite weather event. How would the snow lovers feel if a bunch of people said OMG are you crazy don't root for 2 feet of snow with blizzard conditions!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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