high risk Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 well, hello 00z GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I'm out to hour 90, but it looks like the GFS stops the system just short of a FL landfall and brings it back up north. Further west. Edit: but not sure it does much for us. verbatim, the run has the wind and rainfall around the center missing us, but it sure implies a classic PRE event Thursday into Friday with moisture streaming north well out ahead of the circulation and feeding into a frontal zone over the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Dang, cancel the 4th I am still stuck at 90, but is there anything I should be looking for in the models to pick this feature out? I see a stripe of moisture, but nothing in particular that would stand out to my untrained eyes. The sfc dew point and precipitable water maps show the tropical soup that will likely be in place. The sfc pressure/wind maps show a front likely to be sitting across the mid-Atlantic. 250 mb maps imply right entrance region favorably situated to provide strong lift over our area. This all adds up to a *potential* PRE event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Fantastic setup for storms and tropical flooding to be honest, this would allow me to forget about the uneventful Spring, locally. I feel for those who would like to enjoy their July 4th weekend but this setup is quite rare in early July. Additionally, no recorded hurricanes have passed through the region on July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 early tropical stuff is fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Well, per the 12Z NAM, it starts raining Wednesday afternoon and is still bucketing down come Friday, when the run ends... It;'s more organized precip overall than the 6Z GFS... But then, 84hr NAM and all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 yeah, lets hope that doesn't happen. Well, per the 12Z NAM, it starts raining Wednesday afternoon and is still bucketing down come Friday, when the run ends... It;'s more organized precip overall than the 6Z GFS... But then, 84hr NAM and all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 For those looking for a loltastic start to their afternoon. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2014063006/hwrf_goes4_91L.html Seems unlikely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 30, 2014 Author Share Posted June 30, 2014 All I want is gusts to 30 and 3-5" for my backyard and I consdier this a victory for so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 All I hope for is to see my ground actually wet again. If someone dropped a cigarette on my lawn right now, it'd go up in smoke faster than a SoCal hill side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z NAM and GFS both have Thursday PW values exceeding 2" along the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Hurricane Fran featured a classic PRE, however it appears to have stayed offshore. Definitely some flooding potential coming up. You don't need a major hurricane for a PRE btw, all you need is easterly wind in the low and mid levels with an approaching front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Mmhm. In serious news though, I think I see a PRE signal in the 12z GFS for Thurs/Fri. Not much different from recent runs. I love weather, but don't know much about it. What is a "PRE"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I love weather, but don't know much about it. What is a "PRE"? Predecessor Rainfall Event This would be where the tropical system throws moisture back inland along a stalled frontal boundary and causes heavy rain due to convergence and what not. The most classic situation like this occurred in the Philadelphia area with Hurricane Floydd when it came up the coast September 1999. As it was passing by it was a minimal 40 mph tropical storm passing about 40 miles east of Coastal New Jersey but it caused here in Delaware County PA about 10 miles southwest of Philadelphia serious flooding with 10-15 inches of rain... as the storm passed by it quickly cleared and high pressure built in fast causing 40 mph wind gusts for about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I love weather, but don't know much about it. What is a "PRE"?Usually a rainfall event before a significant tropical/hybrid/nor'easter...In winter, it would be compared to over running snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Usually a rainfall event before a significant tropical/hybrid/nor'easter... In winter, it would be compared to over running snows... maybe I'm nit-picking a little here, but 2 points: 1) it doesn't have to be along the east coast (not sure if you implied that by mentioning nor'easter). Erin in 2007 hit Texas, and there was PRE event in ND/MN/WI. 2) the comparison to overrunning snow doesn't seem right to me. That implies warm advection and stable processes. PRE events are usually convective and simply involve an amplified trough pulling tropical moisture northward into a frontal zone displaced hundreds of miles north of the tropical system's center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Hurricane Fran featured a classic PRE, however it appears to have stayed offshore. Definitely some flooding potential coming up. You don't need a major hurricane for a PRE btw, all you need is easterly wind in the low and mid levels with an approaching front. It's absolutely true that you don't need a strong tropical system for a PRE. But the deep easterly flow detail isn't quite right. I suppose a PRE setup *could* have that, but the conceptual model has more of a southerly component to the low and mid-level flow. You want an amplified trough to the west and a tropical system well to the south. The deep southerly flow ahead of the trough then picks up the tropical moisture well to the south and brings it northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks for the explanations, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 12z EURO has 998mb L at 72 hrs ESE of Savannah GA 96 hrs looks like 987mb L just off Cape Hatteras or just NE of there Beaches will not be pleased with this run 850mb winds 60-80 kts in small area offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks. I am guessing the PRE signal is still there, right? At any rate, once we can get some of this new data into the models I will have more faith in their solutions. Thats a Bob Chill question I only see 850mb winds and SLP placement on my maps... 96 to 120 it moves off to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 We're good at rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 We're good at rain. How much we looking at it? 2-4 with a side of 20mph gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 How much we looking at it? 2-4 with a side of 20mph gusts? Hard to say.. convection is a pain. Euro highlights 95 and E mainly. 1-3" or so area wide from Thurs evening into early Fri stuff.. most east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thats a Bob Chill question I only see 850mb winds and SLP placement on my maps... 96 to 120 it moves off to the NE Until all the tricky details are ironed out, all we can do is wait and see. Euro paints a stripe of 2-3" stuff along 95 through dc and east but the gradient on either side is relatively tight. The short story is we will have a moist and unstable airmass regardless of a possible Arthur. Get a good southerly fetch at the mid-upper levels in advance of the front and it could work out. The ingredients are there at face value. We kinda do s-sw flow feeding on tropical pretty well in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Welcome Tropical Storm Arthur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 Welcome Tropical Storm ArthurAs long as he doesn't rain out my weekend he can do whatever he wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 A cane chase to NC is in order here, definitely track-able. Looks ahead of schedule in terms of developement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted July 1, 2014 Author Share Posted July 1, 2014 A cane chase to NC is in order here, definitely track-able. Looks ahead of schedule in terms of developement. You heading down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You heading down? Depends on the track and intensity. Honestly preying that comes a bit closer so I will perhaps only need to go down to the Eastern Shore. Strange situation because this is the optimal recurve trajectory that actually works around here, and it's during July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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