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Official 2014 Mid-Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread


Subtropics

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  • 2 weeks later...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

 

NHC gives a 70% chance (considered "high") of a TD forming in the GOM.

 

 

On another note...

 

The GFS and GEM both show something on the 13th tracking south of FL then heading NE. The 00z GEM appears to develop a weak TS/TD tracking NE, then turns west making "landfall" in NC/VA.

 

00z GEM- Gusty winds (below TS) and 1-3" of rain for the DC/Baltimore area

 

06z GFS- OTS

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2014_Hurricane_Forecast_Graphic.jpg

 

Spotted this forecast this morning.

 

Overall looks pretty good. Not a huge surprise there. Deep tropics were always going to be subdued due to the building El Nino among other factors.The one misleading thing is that they just put a target area on the east coast, what they fail to mention (perhaps on purpose) is that most of those storms will be off the coast fish storms.

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The 12z GFS is the most direct hit from a hurricane/TS it has shown in awhile.

 

Take a look at the loop-

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014061312/

That is a pretty decent red meat track for late June. Perhaps the best i've seen in years, if you like tropical deluges. Seems like we've already had our fair share of those lately.

 

1851-2009 

 

6_21_30_nhc_sm.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

The frontal passage a few days earlier doesn't recurve that TS out to sea? Or is it homegrown and misses the front?

It's the southeast blob. The front kinda just washes out and it comes up the coast.
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Supposedly there was something wrong with the Euro yesterday at 12z. Could see in init that there were weird temp lines mainly across the ocean.  0z shifted back in line with other models so perhaps it was garbage yesterday.

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12z Euro back west from last night but only a glancer for the coast rainwise. Pretty deep for a global though, suggests maybe a decent hurricane. Worth watching I suppose.

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12z Euro back west from last night but only a glancer for the coast rainwise. Pretty deep for a global though, suggests maybe a decent hurricane. Worth watching I suppose.

Being the busiest weekend of the summer for beach locations kinda adds to the interest. It's a watch and wait forecast. Gonna stress some folks out for sure.

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