Subtropics Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 That time of year again! Here's to hoping we can at least get a remnant deluge. 2014 Outlook: 8-13 Named Storms 3-6 Hurricane 1-2 Major Let's be honest... We are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Preemptively lol-ing and meh-ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Heavy rain is the worst weather. Keep it away. And it's boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted May 22, 2014 Author Share Posted May 22, 2014 Heavy rain is the worst weather. Keep it away. And it's boring. You don't like winds 10-15 with gusts to 30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 22, 2014 Share Posted May 22, 2014 Heavy rain is the worst weather. Keep it away. And it's boring. Heavy rain is great, as long as it isn't 33 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 2, 2014 Author Share Posted June 2, 2014 ... And so it begins! Fingers crossed for a big boy this year. Happy first day of hurricane season ladies and gents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Got a tropical entity that keeps popping up later in the week in the GOM, any remnants would at least have the chance to make their way up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 6, 2014 Share Posted June 6, 2014 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc NHC gives a 70% chance (considered "high") of a TD forming in the GOM. On another note... The GFS and GEM both show something on the 13th tracking south of FL then heading NE. The 00z GEM appears to develop a weak TS/TD tracking NE, then turns west making "landfall" in NC/VA. 00z GEM- Gusty winds (below TS) and 1-3" of rain for the DC/Baltimore area 06z GFS- OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 7, 2014 Author Share Posted June 7, 2014 Spotted this forecast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 7, 2014 Share Posted June 7, 2014 Spotted this forecast this morning. Overall looks pretty good. Not a huge surprise there. Deep tropics were always going to be subdued due to the building El Nino among other factors.The one misleading thing is that they just put a target area on the east coast, what they fail to mention (perhaps on purpose) is that most of those storms will be off the coast fish storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 12z GFS ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 12z GFS ^ 288 312 Boy would I love to see a middle frame... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 18z GFS has a disturbance in the Gulf, making landfall along the panhandle of FL, and then moving off the coast of SC/NC at the end of the run. I'll be at the Outerbanks the day after that...NO THANK YOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 The 12z GFS is the most direct hit from a hurricane/TS it has shown in awhile. Take a look at the loop- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014061312/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 The 12z GFS is the most direct hit from a hurricane/TS it has shown in awhile. Take a look at the loop- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014061312/ But kinda doubtful IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 The 12z GFS is the most direct hit from a hurricane/TS it has shown in awhile. Take a look at the loop- http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014061312/ That is a pretty decent red meat track for late June. Perhaps the best i've seen in years, if you like tropical deluges. Seems like we've already had our fair share of those lately. 1851-2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 But kinda doubtful IMO Definitely lol. The GFS has shown a hurricane/TS going up the East Coast almost every run the last two weeks. The thing is, it keeps pushing the storm back, so you really can't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 (includes like 1-3" prior from the frontal passage this week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The frontal passage a few days earlier doesn't recurve that TS out to sea? Or is it homegrown and misses the front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 9" of rain or bust. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 The frontal passage a few days earlier doesn't recurve that TS out to sea? Or is it homegrown and misses the front?It's the southeast blob. The front kinda just washes out and it comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 28, 2014 Author Share Posted June 28, 2014 Not in yet, though I'm not really out either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted June 28, 2014 Share Posted June 28, 2014 This has been on the "radar" for a couple of days now. Interesting how it hugs the coast. Usually, for me, that signals a storm will eventually develop. The front disintegrates just at the right time for this thing to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Supposedly there was something wrong with the Euro yesterday at 12z. Could see in init that there were weird temp lines mainly across the ocean. 0z shifted back in line with other models so perhaps it was garbage yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 12z Euro back west from last night but only a glancer for the coast rainwise. Pretty deep for a global though, suggests maybe a decent hurricane. Worth watching I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 12z Euro back west from last night but only a glancer for the coast rainwise. Pretty deep for a global though, suggests maybe a decent hurricane. Worth watching I suppose. Being the busiest weekend of the summer for beach locations kinda adds to the interest. It's a watch and wait forecast. Gonna stress some folks out for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 29, 2014 Author Share Posted June 29, 2014 My family has a house in Hateras this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Being the busiest weekend of the summer for beach locations kinda adds to the interest. It's a watch and wait forecast. Gonna stress some folks out for sure. Gonna be a lot of people that wished they had bought that travel insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 My family has a house in Hateras this week! I hope you/they experience Cat 5 eyewall destruction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I hope you/they experience Cat 5 eyewall destruction!I guess I'm a terrible person because this made me spit out my drink reading it. Euro Ensembles not quite as bullish as the op...either way, will be a nice weekend inland with some northern flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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