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May 20-21 Severe Threat


IWXwx

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It will be interesting to see if we get anything today, DTX will be doing an 18z balloon launch to get a better idea with respect to cap strength and destabilization.

 

 

 

last.gif

 

 

HRRR still doesn't show any significant convection firing up but the latest aviation update from DTX is more optimistic...we'll see

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
308 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014  
   
SHORT TERM
 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
A SPECIAL 18Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED A CAPPING INVERSION BASED AT  
850MB. THE CAP IS STRONG BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW /AROUND 50 MB/. WITH  
CONTINUED LATE DAY HEATING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER  
CONVERGENCE...SFC PARCELS WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF BREAKING  
THROUGH THIS WARM LAYER. THE POTENTIAL LOOKS GOOD ENOUGH TO AT LEAST  
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A SFC COLD FRONT OVER SW LOWER MI  
TODAY HAS BEEN SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARD THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO  
MOVE ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO  
SHOWS A COUPLE OF E-W ORIENTED SFC BOUNDARIES BETWEEN THE M 59  
CORRIDOR AND SAGINAW BAY. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES  
ALONG LAKES HURON/ST CLAIR/ERIE. THESE BOUNDARIES ARE ACTUALLY  
PROVIDING THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HAVE SO FAR BEEN THE  
REGION SHOWING THE MOST PROMISE IN BREAKING THE CAP /NOTED BY BOTH  
THE AGITATED CU FIELD AND DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/. THE APPROACH  
OF THE SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL ONLY INCREASE THE  
CONVERGENCE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. THESE LOCATIONS /GENERALLY EAST OF A CARO TO MONROE LINE/ LOOK  
TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE  
NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.  
 
THE 18Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD CAPE DENSITY ABOVE THE CAP AND STILL  
SUPPORTS 0-1KM ML CAPE OF 1500 TO 2K J/KG THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A  
50-60 KNOT MID LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE OVERHEAD. THE RESPECTABLE  
SHEAR ALONG WITH A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING IN FROM THE  
WEST AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONG  
WIND AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE SHEAR AND  
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPER CELLS AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES.  
BACKED FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO  
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY...SO AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.  
GIVEN THE CAP...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AND SO  
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.  
 
THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER DRYING FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
WILL QUICKLY END THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING.  
COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER W-NW FLOW TONIGHT WILL INHIBIT THE DEGREE  
OF BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING...BUT WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH  
TO DROP TEMPS INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

455 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 454 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED NEAR NEW MOOREFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST

AT 15 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A STRONGLY ROTATING...LOWERING

WALL CLOUD.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL

CLARK COUNTY...INCLUDING NEW MOOREFIELD...BUCK CREEK STATE PARK AND

HARMONY.

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A weak sauce shower had briefly cycled over the lower east side of the city and made the ground wet (some time around 5 PM).

 

Apparently there were two other, somewhat stronger cells as well (one around Mt. Clemens and another around Port Huron).

 

But otherwise, the mid-level drying along with the lack of forcing ultimately won out. 

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Pic my daughter sent me of her back yard on the south side of Indy. Happened around 4:15. Ping pong balls, look closely and you can see the siding damage. She also said her roof and car were damaged. And look at her poor tree and new fence.

 

 

 

EDIT: Nice pic Stebo. I love shots of huge towers as the sun sets.

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4.15 in my bucket for a 2.5 hour storm total---I-70 North of Dayton closed both directions due to high water

 

Dude, you aren't kiddin'!!!    I 70...

 

 

 

And we thought I 65 was difficult to travel during bad weather.

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Jesus that picture is nuts, that is going to be a nightmare for a while for traffic.

:lmao:

A local channel did live coverage through the storms and as they were showing this, it was mentioned it might be days for that to reopen between the water going down and making sure it still safe to drive on.

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A local channel did live coverage through the storms and as they were showing this, it was mentioned it might be days for that to reopen between the water going down and making sure it still safe to drive on.

Yeah something like that could potentially washout the road bed in which case it would be more than days, it would be weeks.

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